2023 Browns Advisory Novices Chase (formerly RSA)

[SeanRock]

All of them.

Maybe only a young injury free Appreciate It….

[SeanRock]

It’s a classic case of a square peg in a round hole for me!

[Quevega]

Maybe only a young injury free Appreciate It….

Faugheen
Annie Power
Hurricane Fly

In Sir Gerhards case, it was plenty soft enough when winning a ballymore against stayers. And he ran keen enough.
Definitely stays, it's his recent jumping experience that concerns me. The PTP stuff is moot IMO.

[Kevloaf]

The PTP stuff is moot IMO.

I always think about this, when it gets wheeled out as part of a case...

If Mo Farah ran a 100m race, he'd just beat whoever he raced against at that level.

That's how I view PTP's .... it doesn't 'prove' a horse stays 'cos they won a PTP, it just means they're better than whatever shite they were up against.

Usain Bolt would be me over 26 miles ... and 100m. He's a good animal, I'm not. Proves feck all when they actually go on to do what they're supposed to be doing.




PTP "form" is always over played .... it's just there to make some money early on. By the time a horse goes novice chasing it's almost worthless, either over played or moot!



I still had it right with Samcro and his questionable PTP win

[SeanRock]

Faugheen
Annie Power
Hurricane Fly

In Sir Gerhards case, it was plenty soft enough when winning a ballymore against stayers. And he ran keen enough.
Definitely stays, it's his recent jumping experience that concerns me. The PTP stuff is moot IMO.

Annie Power was outstayed by More Of That in the Stayers & who was then well accounted for by Blacklion & Shaneshill who never really trained on at the top level, similarly Faugheen was well beaten by the similarly flakey Samcro & Melon in the JLT.

Edit: Just to note calling TSL & Whatdeawant stayers would only be applicable to me in a staying handicap. They are not genuine grade 1 horses imo & judging on Gordon’s opinions of TSL prior to the Drinmore he was similarly uninspired!

[Quevega]

Annie Power was outstayed by More Of That in the Stayers & who was then well accounted for by Blacklion & Shaneshill who never really trained on at the top level, similarly Faugheen was well beaten by the similarly flakey Samcro & Melon in the JLT.

Class is class. IMO.
Trips don't matter if you're better than the other horses, in most instances anyhow.
Not all horses win all the time, even the best ones will get beaten.

The examples you've given are not well thought out, and we could go back and forth all night on this.

The point is that a horse of Willie's with proven class is probably more than capable of going close in a standard champion hurdle (saying that in case you cite Constitution Hill)
And also competing in a grade 1 Novice Chase over 3 miles.

Kev's Mo Farah analogy is an extreme one, but the point he is making is clear.

[FinalFurlong91]

Is it really? A 2x festival winner against 'the real whacker', a veteran thyme hill who won a rubbish Kauto star and was well found out previously, and thunder rock who isnt a g1 horse.

On the day I can see him being a solid 5/2 2nd fav and that would be priced around right behind Gerri, who looks to have a great chance of winning it bar the ground concern.

Yes it's absolutely shocking imo

He's had issues, potentially several of them given he didn't get to the track until the end of january

He's had 1 chase start in a dirt race and didn't jump great

He was talked about as a champion hurdle horse at the start of the season and is now being thrown into this

Hes far from guaranteed to stay, he pulled very hard in the ballymore, which wasn't a vintage renewal

Hed be 12/1+ in a normal renewal, even in a weak renewal like this he should be 8s minimum

so much has to be taken on trust, don't like his profile one bit

[SeanRock]

Class is class. IMO.
Trips don't matter if you're better than the other horses, in most instances anyhow.
Not all horses win all the time, even the best ones will get beaten.

The examples you've given are not well thought out, and we could go back and forth all night on this.

The point is that a horse of Willie's with proven class is probably more than capable of going close in a standard champion hurdle (saying that in case you cite Constitution Hill)
And also competing in a grade 1 Novice Chase over 3 miles.

Kev's Mo Farah analogy is an extreme one, but the point he is making is clear.

The point I was making is don’t believe Faugheen or Annie Power could have genuinely won an end to end 3m chase around Cheltenham, a less taxing track would & was obviously a different story. Hurdles & chasing are poles apart in relation to stamina tests when comparing Annie Power too.

[Hurricane fly]

If people want to guarantee themselves a stayer who isn't afraid of a battle isn't everyone missing the obvious in Thyme Hill?

A battling 4th in arguably the best ever AB - in my time following atleast
Unbeaten over 3m in chases
Multiple grade 1 winner in both novice and open company over hurdles

[charlie]

If people want to guarantee themselves a stayer who isn't afraid of a battle isn't everyone missing the obvious in Thyme Hill?

A battling 4th in arguably the best ever AB - in my time following atleast
Unbeaten over 3m in chases
Multiple grade 1 winner in both novice and open company over hurdles

The bumper, AB and stayers is good festival experience and yes, he's not afraid of a battle, he just rarely comes out on top when he gets in one.

LTO was a piss weak G1 and his jumping prior to that was really poor, after a tidy debut.

I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but he wont be good enough IMO.

[Faugheen_Machine]

The point I was making is don’t believe Faugheen or Annie Power could have genuinely won an end to end 3m chase around Cheltenham, a less taxing track would & was obviously a different story. Hurdles & chasing are poles apart in relation to stamina tests when comparing Annie Power too.

You're being harsh on Faugheen. He was only touched off in the Turners by a length, as a 12 yr old!

Peak Faugheen would have been suited by an extended trip and had they gone straight over fences, I think he'd have won a Gold Cup.

[Istabraq]

If people want to guarantee themselves a stayer who isn't afraid of a battle isn't everyone missing the obvious in Thyme Hill?

A battling 4th in arguably the best ever AB - in my time following atleast
Unbeaten over 3m in chases
Multiple grade 1 winner in both novice and open company over hurdles

I've blindly assumed that there has to be two or three Irish that will be better than him, I've had him down in the box that reads 'beats up on English pigs gets found out when the Irish boats land'.
But, having assumed the Irish charge will sweep UK horses aside there's only really Gerri Colombe whose crudentials are clear, plenty of others who could go close but have questions to answer, so maybe Thyme Hill could go close.
Two issues worry me though;
1. I was at Newbury in November when he jumped horribly, really horribly, anything similar to that and he's not competitive
2. Can Phillip Hobbs really train two festival winners given Camprond appears home and hosed already...

[SeanRock]

You're being harsh on Faugheen. He was only touched off in the Turners by a length, as a 12 yr old!

Peak Faugheen would have been suited by an extended trip and had they gone straight over fences, I think he'd have won a Gold Cup.

Yeah that’s fair enough, I wasn’t really taking his age when going chasing into account.

[Exar Essay]

Run4Home Morning. I hope you don't mind me asking, do you know if 1) James Du Berlais will be on the boat, and 2) if so, whether he would be headed here or the Turners? Many thanks.

[Spectre]

I think it's still undecided EE. Final bits of work are on Thursday I think.

Based on Casey's comments a week or so ago, it would feel more like Browns or not at all though.