2023 Browns Advisory Novices Chase (formerly RSA)

[Kevloaf]

Nap of the Festival!!!! Maybe he will beat The Real Whacker and Thyme Hill, but I expect he'll still be beaten, Willie will see to that.

He's decent, and he has the sexy string of 1's after his name. But what has he beaten? Yes, he can only beat what's in front of him, but I'd take half the market to beat what he's beaten just as well. I also don't like that Gordon has said all along he needs soft ground because he hits it so hard, but now all of a sudden he doesn't if it's over three miles. Surely he hits the ground hard for longer!

I think he needs a soft ground Festival to win it, and even then I'd regard the Devilscoachman and Galia des Liteaux as real dangers and extraordinarily good value, and they're regarded as rags.

In my opinion his price is just horrible and he's far from nap material.

Willie's best 3 miler in running the day before with Patrick on his back.

I don't think James Du Berlais cuts the mustard, and worry about Sir Gerhard would be like worrying about whether the sun is going to come up. Kilcruit? Bronn? Ramillies? Pfftt. Also-rans.

Do like other two you mentioned, but this ground talk is just trainer waffle ... he'll be fine no matter the ground and be bounding away. It's his attitude that I like, knowing he'll find for pressure.

He's shown enough speed to have the 'class' to win, and I think he'll be better over further.




Is the mare, Galia Des Liteaux an intended runner? Obviously I can talk about a nap all I want, I've got a book

[charlie]

Nap of the Festival!!!! Maybe he will beat The Real Whacker and Thyme Hill, but I expect he'll still be beaten, Willie will see to that.

He's decent, and he has the sexy string of 1's after his name. But what has he beaten? Yes, he can only beat what's in front of him, but I'd take half the market to beat what he's beaten just as well. I also don't like that Gordon has said all along he needs soft ground because he hits it so hard, but now all of a sudden he doesn't if it's over three miles. Surely he hits the ground hard for longer!

I think he needs a soft ground Festival to win it, and even then I'd regard the Devilscoachman and Galia des Liteaux as real dangers and extraordinarily good value, and they're regarded as rags.

In my opinion his price is just horrible and he's far from nap material.

For me (and perhaps Kev too) it's less what GC has beaten and more that he's maintained his unbeaten status in less than ideal circumstances, which we all know the really good ones just do. Sandown was not far enough and not soft enough, but he won anyway with far more in hand than the winning margin suggested IMO. He was smart at his obstacles and looked clever when he got in too close. I don't think people can really knock the Limerick form as AC followed up second to Mighty Potter and beat GDM, who was definitely put into that race to see if he could win. If like me you buy into Kev's idea that he's properly decent NAP material, you buy into the fact that he'll be much better than what we've seen when he takes on 3m over fences, and what we've seen already is really very good. His market rivals look ordinary and none of them (inc all the horses you've named in your OP) would jump a fence as well or naturally as GC. He is short but he's going off what on the day, 6/4?

[Many Clouds]

Is the mare, Galia Des Liteaux an intended runner? Obviously I can talk about a nap all I want, I've got a book

This is what Skelton said last week:

He said: “If it rains I think Galia Des Liteaux has a massive chance in the Brown Advisory.

“She was an excellent winner of the Grade Two Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick last month. Nothing went to plan in the Kauto Star at Kempton the month before that – she jumped on the second jump and I feel because she did that she missed one midway through the race and Harry (Skelton) pulled her up.

“There was a bit of chatter about shadows at Kempton that day, but I’m not using that as an excuse. These things can happen in novice chases. She put the record straight at Warwick last time out and she loves soft ground.

“She’s a great big strong mare, she doesn’t look like a mare when you stand her up. Everything is big about her, she has big feet, big limbs and she’s a real tank of a mare.

“If you got a soft ground Brown Advisory, I think getting 7lb she would be a certain player.”

[Spectre]

I think probably I should have implicitly said I think Sir Gerhard runs and wins gentlemen.

I realise there are counter-arguments for him based on the usual profile, particularly how many runs over fences, but those who use stats will have forgotten his point background, and Willie will bust any stat anyone ever puts forward anyway. Plus Sir Gerhard is the more experienced horse overall, and he was a better pointer, bumper horse, and hurdler, and based on what I've seen so far I've little doubt he'll be a better chaser too. Already by comparison Sir Gerhard was 7lbs superior by RPR's on chase debuts this season. And he looked as though there was an absolute ton of improvement to come. He's also the ultimate 'been there and done that' horse around HQ.

Calling Gerri Colombe the nap of the meeting with the possibility of Sir Gerhard lining up is a big call in my opinion, because I believe he'll get his arse handed to him. I concede though that a bet now Sir G is definitely with the nrnb concession given the inevitable shenanigans with Willies entries, but he unusually named the race for Sir Gerhard, so it must have been the plan assuming all went well. I expect him to turn up and win.

[Morley Street]

I think probably I should have implicitly said I think Sir Gerhard runs and wins gentlemen.

I realise there are counter-arguments for him based on the usual profile, particularly how many runs over fences, but those who use stats will have forgotten his point background, and Willie will bust any stat anyone ever puts forward anyway. Plus Sir Gerhard is the more experienced horse overall, and he was a better pointer, bumper horse, and hurdler, and based on what I've seen so far I've little doubt he'll be a better chaser too. Already by comparison Sir Gerhard was 7lbs superior by RPR's on chase debuts this season. And he looked as though there was an absolute ton of improvement to come. He's also the ultimate 'been there and done that' horse around HQ.

Calling Gerri Colombe the nap of the meeting with the possibility of Sir Gerhard lining up is a big call in my opinion, because I believe he'll get his arse handed to him. I concede though that a bet now Sir G is definitely with the nrnb concession given the inevitable shenanigans with Willies entries, but he unusually named the race for Sir Gerhard, so it must have been the plan assuming all went well. I expect him to turn up and win.

Great to have you back Spectre

[hardheld]

Agree Sir Gerhard makes it 3/3 festival wins in march. I predict If he lines up with PT on his back he will be SMASHED in joint fav

[Rooster Booster]

I think probably I should have implicitly said I think Sir Gerhard runs and wins gentlemen.

I realise there are counter-arguments for him based on the usual profile, particularly how many runs over fences, but those who use stats will have forgotten his point background, and Willie will bust any stat anyone ever puts forward anyway. Plus Sir Gerhard is the more experienced horse overall, and he was a better pointer, bumper horse, and hurdler, and based on what I've seen so far I've little doubt he'll be a better chaser too. Already by comparison Sir Gerhard was 7lbs superior by RPR's on chase debuts this season. And he looked as though there was an absolute ton of improvement to come. He's also the ultimate 'been there and done that' horse around HQ.

Calling Gerri Colombe the nap of the meeting with the possibility of Sir Gerhard lining up is a big call in my opinion, because I believe he'll get his arse handed to him. I concede though that a bet now Sir G is definitely with the nrnb concession given the inevitable shenanigans with Willies entries, but he unusually named the race for Sir Gerhard, so it must have been the plan assuming all went well. I expect him to turn up and win.

Tbf though the what’s he beat could just as easily be aimed at SG. TSL (rip) x 2 and Kilcruit . Hardly the most illustrious roll of honour either in the spirit of balance.

Also I’d much prefer GCs pedigree in terms of staying chaser to SGs .

With GC it very much feels like staying chaser has been his end game from day one with SG it just feels like an after thought.

[Kevloaf]

I think probably I should have implicitly said I think Sir Gerhard runs and wins gentlemen.

I realise there are counter-arguments for him based on the usual profile, particularly how many runs over fences, but those who use stats will have forgotten his point background, and Willie will bust any stat anyone ever puts forward anyway. Plus Sir Gerhard is the more experienced horse overall, and he was a better pointer, bumper horse, and hurdler, and based on what I've seen so far I've little doubt he'll be a better chaser too. Already by comparison Sir Gerhard was 7lbs superior by RPR's on chase debuts this season. And he looked as though there was an absolute ton of improvement to come. He's also the ultimate 'been there and done that' horse around HQ.

Calling Gerri Colombe the nap of the meeting with the possibility of Sir Gerhard lining up is a big call in my opinion, because I believe he'll get his arse handed to him. I concede though that a bet now Sir G is definitely with the nrnb concession given the inevitable shenanigans with Willies entries, but he unusually named the race for Sir Gerhard, so it must have been the plan assuming all went well. I expect him to turn up and win.

Whilst "Willie busts stats" is something you can say, surely using that as a case is just tongue-in-cheek. You can't use that as a logical reason to just ignore why it'd be important to gain more experience? I don't think Sir Gerhard has shown he jumps well enough to be considered a major threat at the price he is either? He will need to be sensational to win an RSA on his second chase start?

Winning a P2P 4 years ago isn't massively important is it?


His bumper form was average? Is that fair?
His hurdles form looks average? I think that's fair on balance too.
His chase form is 1 run and looks average at best as Largy debut isn't even worth discussing.



The annoying thing, is as he's a previous dual festival winner, he won't actually get any bigger - and I'm not going to die on a hill opposing him, but I think he's got to defy a helluva lot and he's only 5/1 NRNB to do so.

I watched the interview at the time where Willie was warbling about him up in trip .... didn't strike me as a plan either..... as RB has just said above, an after thought....



5/2 Gerri Colombe over 5/1 Sir Gerhard .... you've not changed my mind yet

[Benjy23]

Geri isn't a particularly good trends fit either mind is he? He'd be the least experienced winner for a while. Doesn't have the class form over hurdles. And there's not many winners with no previous Cheltenham experience either...

I'm not sure there's a particularly good trends horse in here though, is kind of my point.

Found a note in my work phone earlier from January 2022 to follow Geri as a novice chaser, which I didn't do (as obvious as it may seem) as I failed to transfer to my proper notes. So I'm blinded by hate.

[Spectre]

Whilst "Willie busts stats" is something you can say, surely using that as a case is just tongue-in-cheek. You can't use that as a logical reason to just ignore why it'd be important to gain more experience? I don't think Sir Gerhard has shown he jumps well enough to be considered a major threat at the price he is either? He will need to be sensational to win an RSA on his second chase start?

Winning a P2P 4 years ago isn't massively important is it?


His bumper form was average? Is that fair?
His hurdles form looks average? I think that's fair on balance too.
His chase form is 1 run and looks average at best as Largy debut isn't even worth discussing.



The annoying thing, is as he's a previous dual festival winner, he won't actually get any bigger - and I'm not going to die on a hill opposing him, but I think he's got to defy a helluva lot and he's only 5/1 NRNB to do so.

I watched the interview at the time where Willie was warbling about him up in trip .... didn't strike me as a plan either..... as RB has just said above, an after thought....



5/2 Gerri Colombe over 5/1 Sir Gerhard .... you've not changed my mind yet

If that was my only reason then yes saying Willie defies stats would be tongue in cheek, but I thought I'd save a pointless debate about stats by mentioning it. If I wanted to use stats, Gerri Colombe hasn't had enough lifetime runs to win a Brown Advisory. Do I think that would stop him? Of course not. But then it might because history suggests he won't................................

Calling him an average bumper horse and an average hurdler, when he was the best bumper horse, and the best middle distance hurdler of his generations? I presume your tongue was very firmly in your cheek with that rationale though

Winning a P2P 4 years ago is only important if you think chasing inexperience would be Sir G's undoing. He jumped particularly well that day in an excellent time. So much so he was also regarded as the best Pointer of his generation.

Bumpers, Hurdles, Points, I make 3-0 to Sir G so far, and that's what I'd call a trend!!! We could add in Chase debuts to make it a 4-0 drubbing if you like.

Once they stopped dawdling he jumped particularly well thee weeks ago too I thought. Essentially I don't see an issue with his jumping and I don't see it as any more a reason for him to be beaten than Gerri Colombe. It's simply evidence to add to the mix.

His one chase run so far needs to be examined by the race he ran not as a comparison to Largy Debut, just as Gerri needs examining in the same way having beaten horses that anyone of the top 6-8 in the market would. Using their chase debuts as comparisons, because it's all we have, then I believe Sir G was the better horse. Not only did I think so, RPR and Timeform did too. I presume you disagree?

Gerri has run twice since and improved both times. Sir G hasn't had the opportunity to, so we can't compare. But we can use comparisons in the other disciplines to help. Sir G was 18 pounds better over hurdles, and 15lbs better in bumpers. So have you seen anything that gives you good reason why Gerri has improved so significantly to take him past Sir Gerhard if they both turn up at their best that I haven't?

What we do know is that both of them will be fit for their life in March, and granted a clear round for both I'm 100% confident that Sir G has the better engine and is the classier horse, so if we have the usual Festival ground he'll finish in front of Gerri. Elliott has said too many times that he wants soft ground to be at his best for it to not actually be true. So if it's soft or heavy I'd be less certain about the result between the two of them. But then I think Gerri has Thedevilscoachman and Galia des Liteaux to contend with, and I'd rather be on them at huge odds than Gerri at 5/2.

Anyhow, the whole point of my response is that however much you like him, I struggle to see how you could have him as the nap of the Festival?

[opatcho]

Sir G went to Ballymore because his jumping was questionable over hurdles

he comes out first time over fences, and didn’t jump well

he’s now throw into a grade 1 at the fez and expected to come on?

Not for me

[Silverbirch]

Is Sir Gerhard even turning up here or the fez all together?

"I don’t know what to do with him just yet. He's inexperienced, so I need to see if he is better off going two and a half miles with less jumping, or three miles when there is more jumping but going slower. That’s one that needs to be sorted out still."

Personally, I had him down as a 2 Mile Hurdler. And long term I think that's where he'll end up. He won a very poor Ballymore which was a free hit. Those comments are very blase from Willie and maybe just filling holes, which I don't like. I'd say he's more likely to go turners at this point though. And in that, still won't win.

[Dandrew99]

Spectre Do you actually think Sir Gerhard will go here though?

I know this is a massive if... but if Willie hadn't mentioned the BANC post race, then I don't think anyone would be expecting him to turn up here. It would be very un-Willie to step a horse up from 2m to 3m after 1 chase and straight into a grade 1. I've definitely second guessed Willie wrong on more than one occasion, but I just can't see him doing it. I know you're one for Willie sticking to his MO, it would definitely be going against that for me. Mighty Potter does look like a bit of a weapon, but Willie doesn't particularly have anything for the mid trip either at the minute after Appreciate It and James Du Berlais both disappointed. I can see JDB being the one that's stepped up. Would also say that in the recent stable tours, the vibes have not been anywhere near decisive regarding his target.

As for his actual race, I thought he looked better when they started going at a decent pace, so maybe the faster pace of the Turners would suit him more anyway. I would be worried about Sir G if he did turn up, but if he doesn't then I think Gerri Colombe is rock solid.

P.S. Good to have to back

[Spectre]

Spectre Do you actually think Sir Gerhard will go here though?

I know this is a massive if... but if Willie hadn't mentioned the BANC post race, then I don't think anyone would be expecting him to turn up here. It would be very un-Willie to step a horse up from 2m to 3m after 1 chase and straight into a grade 1. I've definitely second guessed Willie wrong on more than one occasion, but I just can't see him doing it. I know you're one for Willie sticking to his MO, it would definitely be going against that for me. Mighty Potter does look like a bit of a weapon, but Willie doesn't particularly have anything for the mid trip either at the minute after Appreciate It and James Du Berlais both disappointed. I can see JDB being the one that's stepped up. Would also say that in the recent stable tours, the vibes have not been anywhere near decisive regarding his target.

As for his actual race, I thought he looked better when they started going at a decent pace, so maybe the faster pace of the Turners would suit him more anyway. I would be worried about Sir G if he did turn up, but if he doesn't then I think Gerri Colombe is rock solid.

P.S. Good to have to back

The no runner no bet caveat is in my first post Dan, but yes I do think he'll turn up here. It's rare for Willie to name a race, and usually if he does that's where they go. For my book I'd have a distinct preference for him to turn up in the Turners though.

[Kevloaf]

Anyhow, the whole point of my response is that however much you like him, I struggle to see how you could have him as the nap of the Festival?

In the same way I napped Ginto over Hollow Games

Ha

I don't see how it's a struggle to see it, I think he's a really solid fav.... and if Sir Gerhard is his biggest threat then I'll take my chances.

Obviously my nap could have been Constitution Hill, but I think 5/2 is the biggest priced fav of the shorties that I fancy.

One for us to get stuck in to on Friday