2023 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Exar Essay]

Betfair moved IEP out to 5's yesterday for the Ballymore too

Ah, in some ways that might explain the exchange moves. Betfair balancing their books and the exchange adjusting and also guessing that Betfair are ITK.

[Winging The Last]

A bit of money for IEP for the Supreme in the last 24 hours. Not huge amounts but in to 11 on the exchange and out to 6 for the Ballymore. Perhaps better reflecting Willie's comments that his destination isn't set yet.

He will go the Ballymore based on Willies comments and actions.

In the RP he stated:

Impaire Et Passe
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 4-1 / Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 3-1

He has the option of the Ballymore or the Supreme. He's shown us he has no problem staying and we might let Hunters Yarn go one way and Impaire Et Passe go another. He's looked a bit special.


So going the other race that Hunters Yarn doesn't go.

And since that comment in the RP Hunters Yarn has been scratched from the Ballymore and is only in the Supreme. (unless HY doesn't go to the fest)

[Quevega]

That'd suit Inthepocket who looks like a strong run race would be perfect for him,on a line through Absolute Notions he should be of as much interest to people as Good Land for this yet he's around 9 points bigger with most books, has form on good,soft & heavy so won't mind what the ground comes up like either so that's one less equation to worry about.

I had him down, if running as one that may be a decent each way price on the day.
I wouldn't risk him now personally, although that may bite me if the race really cuts up.
If the top 5 or 6 in the betting get declared then he has to be 16-1+ I reckon, unless he gets talked up by high profile pundits etc.

[ComplyOrDie]

Ah, in some ways that might explain the exchange moves. Betfair balancing their books and the exchange adjusting and also guessing that Betfair are ITK.

Yeah, they pushed him out to 11/2 for a very short space of time before bringing back to 5/1. He was 4/1 standout with them though. I wonder how long the 5/1 will last.

[Exar Essay]

He will go the Ballymore based on Willies comments and actions.

In the RP he stated:

Impaire Et Passe
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 4-1 / Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 3-1

He has the option of the Ballymore or the Supreme. He's shown us he has no problem staying and we might let Hunters Yarn go one way and Impaire Et Passe go another. He's looked a bit special.


So going the other race that Hunters Yarn doesn't go.

And since that comment in the RP Hunters Yarn has been scratched from the Ballymore and is only in the Supreme. (unless HY doesn't go to the fest)

Yes, fair. And also Dark Raven mentioned for the Supreme. Would be highly unlikely all 3 head that way.

[Quevega]

He will go the Ballymore based on Willies comments and actions.

In the RP he stated:

Impaire Et Passe
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 4-1 / Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 3-1

He has the option of the Ballymore or the Supreme. He's shown us he has no problem staying and we might let Hunters Yarn go one way and Impaire Et Passe go another. He's looked a bit special.


So going the other race that Hunters Yarn doesn't go.

And since that comment in the RP Hunters Yarn has been scratched from the Ballymore and is only in the Supreme. (unless HY doesn't go to the fest)

Hunters Yarn is one of the few Novices with 4 runs though.

So the other way may be the county (depending on his UK mark and them being happy with it of course) Obviously his IRE rating of 143 doesn't look promising, but it is another way of splitting his many novices this season.

At the moment he has mentioned the supreme and ballymore for 5 or 6 horses each race.

Unless he comes in mob handed then some will go handicapping or skip I reckon even if the mark is not percieved as "handy".

A supreme winner would need to be around 155 minimum, so any horse of Willie's rated high 140's ought to be competitive in a county hurdle really.

[Winging The Last]

Hunters Yarn is one of the few Novices with 4 runs though.

So the other way may be the county (depending on his UK mark and them being happy with it of course) Obviously his IRE rating of 143 doesn't look promising, but it is another way of splitting his many novices this season.

At the moment he has mentioned the supreme and ballymore for 5 or 6 horses each race.

Unless he comes in mob handed then some will go handicapping or skip I reckon even if the mark is not percieved as "handy".

A supreme winner would need to be around 155 minimum, so any horse of Willie's rated high 140's ought to be competitive in a county hurdle really.

He is but following his win the other day and his new rating I can't see him going for a handicap now.

Willie has said since that he's most likely bound for the Supreme

[EnvoiAlien]

I had him down, if running as one that may be a decent each way price on the day.
I wouldn't risk him now personally, although that may bite me if the race really cuts up.
If the top 5 or 6 in the betting get declared then he has to be 16-1+ I reckon, unless he gets talked up by high profile pundits etc.

I wouldn't worry about it cutting up too much Q,Willie will be running 7 or 8 so you'll get a minimum field of 10 so the ew plays will be safe

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah, they pushed him out to 11/2 for a very short space of time before bringing back to 5/1. He was 4/1 standout with them though. I wonder how long the 5/1 will last.

Into 9/2 now

[Quevega]

I wouldn't worry about it cutting up too much Q,Willie will be running 7 or 8 so you'll get a minimum field of 10 so the ew plays will be safe

I know Willie is dominant (A Man's world) this is a joke and is definitely not blatant mysogyny, as i love women and watch them most days.

But it would be some statement if he does run 5 or 6 in each of the supreme and ballymore.
Not sure he will though as they all won't be pleasing him near the day and there are other spring festivals for him to sway the owners with.

[Exar Essay]

How can I hate women, my mum's one.

[Dandrew99]

He will go the Ballymore based on Willies comments and actions.

In the RP he stated:

Impaire Et Passe
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 4-1 / Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 3-1

He has the option of the Ballymore or the Supreme. He's shown us he has no problem staying and we might let Hunters Yarn go one way and Impaire Et Passe go another. He's looked a bit special.


So going the other race that Hunters Yarn doesn't go.

And since that comment in the RP Hunters Yarn has been scratched from the Ballymore and is only in the Supreme. (unless HY doesn't go to the fest)

I think the only way that IEP goes to the Supreme is if Facile Vega gets stepped up to the Ballymore.

Those two look fairly nailed on to be Townends rides to me. Then that leaves Jacob on Hunters Yarn in the Supreme, and Dark Raven to step up to the Ballymore. It would be very Willie to let his two horses that have lost (Facile Vega and Dark Raven) step up in trip.

Still think it's way more likely that IEP will go to the Ballymore though.

[Winging The Last]

I think the only way that IEP goes to the Supreme is if Facile Vega gets stepped up to the Ballymore.

Those two look fairly nailed on to be Townends rides to me. Then that leaves Jacob on Hunters Yarn in the Supreme, and Dark Raven to step up to the Ballymore. It would be very Willie to let his two horses that have lost (Facile Vega and Dark Raven) step up in trip.

Still think it's way more likely that IEP will go to the Ballymore though.

Agree. However who do you think would ride Gaelic Warrior?

If I was to guess it would be:

Supreme
Facile Vega - PT
IET - Danny
Hunters Yarn - Jacob

Ballymore
Gaelic Warrior - PT (Only one to ride him so far for Willie)
IEP - Jacob
Champ Kiely - Danny (Danny ridden him twice and won both times including the Lawlors)

[Dandrew99]

Agree. However who do you think would ride Gaelic Warrior?

If I was to guess it would be:

Supreme
Facile Vega - PT
IET - Danny
Hunters Yarn - Jacob

Ballymore
Gaelic Warrior - PT (Only one to ride him so far for Willie)
IEP - Jacob
Champ Kiely - Danny (Danny ridden him twice and won both times including the Lawlors)

PT is the only one to ride IEP too. It is tricky with there being 3 clear standouts that you can see him wanting to ride. Willie would have a queue of jockeys wanting a ride on Gaelic Warrior if he were to choose IEP, so it's not something I've overly thought about!

I suppose the one very real possibility if that Facile Vega has had some sort of setback after the DRF and will miss Cheltenham... If I were to have a punt at the minute though I'd be going:

Supreme
Facile Vega/Impaire Et Passe - townend
IET - Danny
Hunters Yarn - Jacob
Diverge - Patrick

Ballymore
Facile Vega/Impaire Et Passe - Townend
Gaelic Warrior - Patrick
Dark Raven - Jacob
Champ Kiely - Danny

Still the likes of O'Keefe/Hayes to pick up the odd ride too, maybe In Excess? Rachel might even pick one up, doesn't look like HDB has a great deal in the novice hurdles. Mark Walsh on Ho My Lord. He could have an absolute stampede this year.

[Benjy23]

I reckon Townend rides IEP here and ends the Jacob theory... And he goes off about 2/1 fav.