2023 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Winging The Last]

I think this race tactically will be really interesting and may be very important as to who emerges on top. If they are of similar ability.
If Mullins runs Champ Keily, GW and Impaire et Passe.

Who will lead ?

I think Impaire and Hermes Allen are the slickest hurdlers I've seen this year, and both will make ground at the hurdles.
Then the jumping right thing for Gaelic, who will need a stablemate to run alongside. Or lead on his own.


At the moment I think that Hermes Allen will lead if he's allowed too.
And Champ Keily will sit in behind alongside Gaelic with Impaire & Good Land held up.

It'll be hard/foolish for any horse to sit out wide as Gaelic will be shuffling them all sideways.
So Impaire and Good Land will be keen to be on the shoulder of Hermes Allen if they allow him to lead. Or sit tight behind the Warrior on the rail, and wait for the second last.

I think Hermes probably has to try and make it.
If he jumps as well as he has previously, and they allow him to stack them up because they think they are better, then that's his best chance.
If they end up fighting for the lead and go too quick then it may well be set up for Good Land and Impaire.

Obviously if one of them has much more ability than the rest it might not make much difference, but as we stand they all have claims.

You have to remember that Champ Kiely also jumps out to his right which he did in the Lawlors. You'd think they'd want to lead with him as well as most of his wins have been front running rides and the only loss he has had was when help up

[Quevega]

You have to remember that Champ Kiely also jumps out to his right which he did in the Lawlors. You'd think they'd want to lead with him as well as most of his wins have been front running rides and the only loss he has had was when help up

Yeah, it's possible, and Willie might run another one or 2 as well, like In Excess or Ho My Lord.
But They will want someone to sit alongside Gaelic I think, and he is likely to be Townends ride IMO.
If Champ leads then Hermes would have to be as close behind as possible.
Gaelic and Champ as a front running pair might suit Mullins.

I just have the feeling that if Hermes wants to lead then the Mullins lot may say Go for it.
But they may be very keen to lead themselves.
Very tricky race to call from a tactical point of view.
Gaelic is the spanner, in more ways than one.

[Benjy23]

Yeah, you can already see on the exchange that Hermes is going to be around 7/2 4-1, and then the Mullins main 2 probably similar. With the townend ride probably close to FAV.
Very open race, means Good Land or Champ may touch double figures.
assuming all declared obviously.

Aye, I expect the Townend ride to go off fav. Probably the only value in the market at the moment is if guessing which one that is! Particularly if it's IEP. If it's Gaelic then you'll get people believing Jacob was always going to ride IEP.

Agree the likes of Good Land likely to prove unpopular and end up a nice price. I guess Marine National winning the Supreme is the only thing that may prevent that. And CK is already plenty big enough but as third string he's likely to drift even further.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Aye, I expect the Townend ride to go off fav. Probably the only value in the market at the moment is if guessing which one that is! Particularly if it's IEP. If it's Gaelic then you'll get people believing Jacob was always going to ride IEP.

Agree the likes of Good Land likely to prove unpopular and end up a nice price. I guess Marine National winning the Supreme is the only thing that may prevent that. And CK is already plenty big enough but as third string he's likely to drift even further.

That would suit me fine if MN winning the Supreme is the only thing preventing GL going bigger price, as already done the double. If MN loses I may be able to get a nice price on GL, I like his chances.

[Quevega]

Aye, I expect the Townend ride to go off fav. Probably the only value in the market at the moment is if guessing which one that is! Particularly if it's IEP. If it's Gaelic then you'll get people believing Jacob was always going to ride IEP.

Agree the likes of Good Land likely to prove unpopular and end up a nice price. I guess Marine National winning the Supreme is the only thing that may prevent that. And CK is already plenty big enough but as third string he's likely to drift even further.

Absolutely

[Ice]

Have many of you guys done the marine nationale/good land double ?

[ComplyOrDie]

Who will lead ?

I can't see any of them being held up tbh. Champ Kiely, Gaelic Warrior, Hermes Allen & Good Land will all want to get on with it tbh.

Champ Kiely has to lead, IMO. His run in the Royal Bond where he was held in mid division early, I don't think played to his strengths, and it's been his only defeat so far this season.

Gaelic Warrior can probably let CK get on with and track him, but he does like to get on with things, so to speak, and has led early enough in the majority of his races, including in last seasons run at the festival. He also jumps right handed, as you note. EVERY jockey in the race should be well aware of this though.

I think Hermes Allen can drop a little and track the leader(s) if need be, but his jumping may take him to the front. He can't be too far off the pace IMO, as I don't believe he has a proper turn of foot, more of a galloper, although he quickened up nice enough in the Ballymore trial, but he was only going away from Music Drive which doesn't say much.

Good Land is also one that seems to want to race prominently, judging by what we've seen so far. I'm not saying he'll need to neccessarily lead, but he'll be up with the pace.

Impaire Et Passe is another who has been prominent, without needing to lead though, so he could drop in on the rail and track the leaders. He's the one I feel has the turn of foot, which is why I've made him by best winner in the race.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Have many of you guys done the marine nationale/good land double ?

I done it after the trainer told us both would win!!

[Dandrew99]

Gaelic is the spanner, in more ways than one.

I've loved reading the commentary, but this is the best bit

[ComplyOrDie]

Aye, I expect the Townend ride to go off fav. Probably the only value in the market at the moment is if guessing which one that is! Particularly if it's IEP. If it's Gaelic then you'll get people believing Jacob was always going to ride IEP.

OK, before it happens then, this is what I'm expecting, and the reason I'm expecting it is because Willie will have at least three runners in the race and he can get Paul on GW as he rides for RR a fair bit anyway.

I see it that where multiple horses are entered for Willie that Jacob will ride the Munir/Souede horses, provided it leaves Paul with a ride.

[Quevega]

I can't see any of them being held up tbh. Champ Kiely, Gaelic Warrior, Hermes Allen & Good Land will all want to get on with it tbh.

Champ Kiely has to lead, IMO. His run in the Royal Bond where he was held in mid division early, I don't think played to his strengths, and it's been his only defeat so far this season.

Gaelic Warrior can probably let CK get on with and track him, but he does like to get on with things, so to speak, and has led early enough in the majority of his races, including in last seasons run at the festival. He also jumps right handed, as you note. EVERY jockey in the race should be well aware of this though.

I think Hermes Allen can drop a little and track the leader(s) if need be, but his jumping may take him to the front. He can't be too far off the pace IMO, as I don't believe he has a proper turn of foot, more of a galloper, although he quickened up nice enough in the Ballymore trial, but he was only going away from Music Drive which doesn't say much.

Good Land is also one that seems to want to race prominently, judging by what we've seen so far. I'm not saying he'll need to neccessarily lead, but he'll be up with the pace.

Impaire Et Passe is another who has been prominent, without needing to lead though, so he could drop in on the rail and track the leaders. He's the one I feel has the turn of foot, which is why I've made him by best winner in the race.

Obviously they can't all lead.
That's the quandary.
And held up in this race is different to a 20 runner handicap, so maybe just off the pace is a better term.

But some will have to race where they've not been used to racing, for sure. It will inconvenience some more than others.
It'll probably boil down to ability anyway to be fair, it usually does, and there is enough space on this course for the best horse to prevail.
Unless there are incidents with the jumping.

[Ice]

They could end up going a suicidal pace and cutting each others throats up front.

[Exar Essay]

A bit of money for IEP for the Supreme in the last 24 hours. Not huge amounts but in to 11 on the exchange and out to 6 for the Ballymore. Perhaps better reflecting Willie's comments that his destination isn't set yet.

[ComplyOrDie]

A bit of money for IEP for the Supreme in the last 24 hours. Not huge amounts but in to 11 on the exchange and out to 6 for the Ballymore. Perhaps better reflecting Willie's comments that his destination isn't set yet.

Betfair moved IEP out to 5's yesterday for the Ballymore too

[EnvoiAlien]

They could end up going a suicidal pace and cutting each others throats up front.

That'd suit Inthepocket who looks like a strong run race would be perfect for him,on a line through Absolute Notions he should be of as much interest to people as Good Land for this yet he's around 9 points bigger with most books, has form on good,soft & heavy so won't mind what the ground comes up like either so that's one less equation to worry about.