2023 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Quevega]

I never said any reasoning for him being the winner.
I do think however given how impressive he’s looked and the horses he’s beaten coming out and winning, that he’s the deserving fav.
Its only my opinion though.
If people want to crab the Challow that’s their prerogative, and it would have served them well in the past, but it does not mean the same happens this time.
Hes been as good as any I’ve seen over the Ballymore type distance, and better than most.
Like i said though, it’s an open year with a few worthy candidates.

I think he's the best novice hurdler Nichols has had for a few years now.
Slick hurdler, with pace and can stay forever.
His price is wrong though and he will probably be 7/2 on the day.

The Mullins horses have questions to answer but have a lot of potential. Impaire et Passe's form is dismal in behind, but he looks classy. Gaelic Warrior has serious question marks on his handling of the track, but may be even better over further than his weird form this season.
I like Good Land as I think he is the most solid of the main contenders, but his ratings are average (this may be misleading as I believe a lot of the raters have a big name bias)

[doctorwu]

Good Land for the Good People.

[Quevega]

No Challow winner has ever won the Ballymore. Hows the weveallbeencaught form looking.............

It's a dumb statistic though.

And Playing the form of a horse down by 1 subsequent performance of another horse is also dumb, and not logical.
There are more positives to his form than minuses.

You're no Dr Spock are you ?

I've backed Captain Conby for both races as well by the way, have you any idea if Sheehy has sent horses to Cheltenham often ??

[Carnage at Taunton]

You'd expect horses deemed considered talented enough by their trainers to run in a grade 1 to be winning in novice hurdles and listed races after wouldn't you?
Would be very worried if they weren't

The second won that grade 2 nicely today, but like most grade 2 novice races in the UK it was more of a listed race and the elliot horse didn't lift a leg

Form certainly hasnt looked bad but not really been franked in the context of a proper grade 1 race like this

Hermes allen did look miles better than them though so thats not surprising

Bit like luccia in that they've won so easily it'd be harsh to judge them on what the ones in behind do

Personally I think he will need soft ground to have a chance, on good ground he will be very vulnerable to the speed horses like impaire et passe and the gaelic lunatic. Bit of soft to remove some of the emphasis away from speed and he could go close.

Of course you may be proved right re needing some soft to prevail, if horses prove to be quicker than him.
Looking at his two easy wins on good ground, and his running style, I personally have no worries on that score.
If he’s good enough than he’s good enough. Good, Soft or in between.
And that we won’t know until the race.

[Quevega]

You'd expect horses deemed considered talented enough by their trainers to run in a grade 1 to be winning in novice hurdles and listed races after wouldn't you?
Would be very worried if they weren't

The second won that grade 2 nicely today, but like most grade 2 novice races in the UK it was more of a listed race and the elliot horse didn't lift a leg

Form certainly hasnt looked bad but not really been franked in the context of a proper grade 1 race like this

Hermes allen did look miles better than them though so thats not surprising

Bit like luccia in that they've won so easily it'd be harsh to judge them on what the ones in behind do

Personally I think he will need soft ground to have a chance, on good ground he will be very vulnerable to the speed horses like impaire et passe and the gaelic lunatic. Bit of soft to remove some of the emphasis away from speed and he could go close.

Who do you think has better form lines for the Ballymore than the FAV ?
The Mullins horses have beaten dogshit and handicappers.

[doctorwu]

It's a dumb statistic though.

And Playing the form of a horse down by 1 subsequent performance of another horse is also dumb, and not logical.
There are more positives to his form than minuses.

You're no Dr Spock are you ?

I've backed Captain Conby for both races as well by the way, have you any idea if Sheehy has sent horses to Cheltenham often ??

Every year its a dumb statistic.

[Quevega]

Every year its a dumb statistic.

Yes it is.

[ComplyOrDie]

Every year its a dumb statistic.

Very true.

Every season I find myself having the same debate with at least one person (usually more) on here.

One year, I'm sure, the Challow Hurdle form will stand up, but I'm not backing anything from the race until that day, as I think it will have to be something really special and I just don't think Hermes Allen is that horse.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Very true.

Every season I find myself having the same debate with at least one person (usually more) on here.

One year, I'm sure, the Challow Hurdle form will stand up, but I'm not backing anything from the race until that day, as I think it will have to be something really special and I just don't think Hermes Allen is that horse.

Just has to be a horse that’s better than any other in the race on the day.
May not need to be really special.
But he may be.

[doctorwu]

Just has to be a horse that’s better than any other in the race on the day.
May not need to be really special.
But he may be.

Or not as is usually the case.

[Quevega]

Very true.

Every season I find myself having the same debate with at least one person (usually more) on here.

One year, I'm sure, the Challow Hurdle form will stand up, but I'm not backing anything from the race until that day, as I think it will have to be something really special and I just don't think Hermes Allen is that horse.

There's plenty gone close enough to make it just a coincidence and without any real scientific or racing logic behind it.

Based on stats, aren't IEP and Gaelic up against it ?
Probably more logic to these as well.

Apart from the UK Nichols trained novice vs IRE Mullins trained stats

[ComplyOrDie]

Just has to be a horse that’s better than any other in the race on the day.
May not need to be really special.
But he may be.

Agreed. But I don't think he is that horse, at least not for me.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Or not as is usually the case.

Of course or not, none of us know.
What I do know though is HA is not the same horse as any other winner of the Challow.
And imo the failure of BMG and others imo has no bearing on the chances of HA.

[ComplyOrDie]

There's plenty gone close enough to make it just a coincidence and without any real scientific or racing logic behind it.

Based on stats, aren't IEP and Gaelic up against it ?
Probably more logic to these as well.

Apart from the UK Nichols trained novice vs IRE Mullins trained stats

I guess on all ratings achieved Gaelic Warrior is the one.

He's hit consistently high RPR's plus officially rated higher than Hermes Allen. Gaelic Warrior is 152 in Ireland, that's without UK Tax, Hermes Allen is rated 149 in the UK.

IEP has the most to do of the Mullins likely runners, IMO, but he's the one I'm most excited about.

I prefer a horse for the Ballymore who can win over 2m, than a horse that looks like he could go Ballymore or Bartlett, if that makes sense. Hermes Allen is in the latter bracket for me.

Just my preference and opinion of the race.

FWIW I think most Challow winners would benefit for going to the Bartlett, but most seem to end up in the Ballymore.

[FinalFurlong91]

Who do you think has better form lines for the Ballymore than the FAV ?
The Mullins horses have beaten dogshit and handicappers.

The form is murky at best in all the novice hurdles

Been a weird year

Iv not watched a single race and thought id definitely just seen a cheltenham winner