2023 Ultima Handicap Chase

[Jrow]

I do like Lord Accord for this race, but I have been waiting for Nassalam to run over 3 miles. He was entered in a 3m+ race at Cheltenham few months back but never ran (Was well backed too). I couldn't back him if he ran here without trying 3 miles first (and posting his best rpr). But I liked his last performance, where it looked like a longer trip would suit. His jumping to the left wouldn't be an inconvenience here

[Quevega]

Courtesy of Saxon Warrior

2022 1st OR 140, 2nd OR 138, 3rd OR 138, 4th OR 145 (High OR 164, Low OR 138) 24 ran
2021 1st OR 143, 2nd OR 147, 3rd OR 154, 4th OR 158 (High OR 158, Low OR 132) 16 ran
2020 1st OR 139, 2nd OR 150, 3rd OR 148, 4th OR 159 (High OR 159, Low OR 133). 23 ran
2019 1st OR 151, 2nd OR 144, 3rd OR 155, 4th OR 140 (High OR 155, Low OR 140). 24 ran
2018 1st OR 142, 2nd OR 152, 3rd OR 131, 4th OR 150 (High OR 155, Low OR 137). 18 ran
2017 1st OR 155, 2nd OR 142, 3rd OR 154, 4th OR 145 (High OR 155, Low OR 134). 23 ran
2016 1st OR 148, 2nd OR 153, 3rd OR 149, 4th OR 150 (High OR 153, Low OR 131). 23 ran
2015 1st OR 146, 2nd OR 143, 3rd OR 134, 4th OR 139 (High OR 155, Low OR 133). 24 ran
2014 1st OR 145, 2nd OR 143, 3rd OR 131, 4th OR 143 (High OR 151, Low OR 129). 23 ran
2013 1st OR 132, 2nd OR 145, 3rd OR 132, 4th OR 133 (High OR 153, Low OR 132). 24 ran

I think 5 ran from outside of the handicap last year. So the 138 is a little misleading.
And 3 finished in the places, low weights was definitely to the fore last year.
Gericault roque was 133. ran off 138 for example.

[nortonscoin200]

Into Overdrive an obvious one.
Corach, Our Power, Tea Clipper, Lord Accord fit all the key trends.

Corach prepping elsewhere for Aintree and won't go to the Fez, was the last I saw from Lucinda.

[nortonscoin200]

We bringing Scrum Sprints from Agile to FJ? I for one am here for it

Wow robith - I'd never heard of Scrum Sprints until your post. Sounds pretty high tech stuff, speaking as a dinosaur!!!

If you think doing it that way would be good I'm up for it - but to work well it would need to be easily accessible to all FJ members imo. I'm sure you can answer that question robith.

Alternatively we could just start a low-tech pop-up thread in the members section where FJs can (if they wish) brain-storm the chosen handicap with the aim of finding the winner or at least a short-list by the 24-hour deadline.

Unless the mods have any objection how about we launch the FJ Handicap Blitz this Sunday at 10am and focus on solving the Grand Annual by Monday at 10am when the thread closes.

The reason for choosing the GA is that the winner for the last 11 years has not run within 30 days of the Festival - so in all probability by Sunday we should have all the form we're going to get.

And Sunday seems like a good day to give it a try as there's no Irish racing and most people will be on a day off.

Any thoughts anyone?

[Dandrew99]

I like the idea nortonscoin200, although we don't have enough weeks left to do 1 a week and get them all covered

[Zachx02]

We bringing Scrum Sprints from Agile to FJ? I for one am here for it

Never did I think something I've learnt in my degree and will use in industry afterwards would appear on the FJ forum

[nortonscoin200]

I like the idea nortonscoin200, although we don't have enough weeks left to do 1 a week and get them all covered

We could maybe squeeze in 2 a week if it took off Dandrew99 - perhaps every Tuesday and Sunday?

Maybe use the first one as a trial to gauge the level of interest and decide if it's worth repeating.

[robith]

Wow robith - I'd never heard of Scrum Sprints until your post. Sounds pretty high tech stuff, speaking as a dinosaur!!!

If you think doing it that way would be good I'm up for it - but to work well it would need to be easily accessible to all FJ members imo. I'm sure you can answer that question robith.

Alternatively we could just start a low-tech pop-up thread in the members section where FJs can (if they wish) brain-storm the chosen handicap with the aim of finding the winner or at least a short-list by the 24-hour deadline.

Unless the mods have any objection how about we launch the FJ Handicap Blitz this Sunday at 10am and focus on solving the Grand Annual by Monday at 10am when the thread closes.

The reason for choosing the GA is that the winner for the last 11 years has not run within 30 days of the Festival - so in all probability by Sunday we should have all the form we're going to get.

And Sunday seems like a good day to give it a try as there's no Irish racing and most people will be on a day off.

Any thoughts anyone?

I think the main idea is you break all the work down into manageable chunks; someone looks at trends, someone watches back races, someone looks at entries, someone looks at trainer's comments, so at the end in a short space of time.

Obviously just sharing my professional experience But the key is having a process- brainstorms can become a bit of a mess. Louder voices can win out, group think can kick in, I reckon to get the most of it, it would benefit from having a facilitator. Or I'm just making it too complicated, just excited as we've been trialling sprints in my discipline at work.

At the least, I think it would be good to get people to sign up in advance, allocate some research to them, so at the start we have clear summaries of key points to inform before we start

[Coneygree15]

Anyone know/heard anything re BUSSLETON for Joseph O'Brien? I know he doesn't tend to target this race but he's certainly got an enviable record in festival handicaps generally, and this horse has already been sent on a UK raid when sent off a well backed 15/2 for the Ladbrokes Trophy. That was his last start, so wondering if he's had a problem, or whether they're saving him for good ground in the Spring festivals?

He'd be of interest for me: top target trainer, likes good ground, sits up with the pace, top RPR over 3m trip, second season chaser. Ticks a hell of a lot of boxes. I appreciate he has run below par at two past Cheltenhams, which is a significant negative, but I'm not sure you can read too much into the Turners run in particular, where he was sent over for the prize money.

[Quevega]

Anyone know/heard anything re BUSSLETON for Joseph O'Brien? I know he doesn't tend to target this race but he's certainly got an enviable record in festival handicaps generally, and this horse has already been sent on a UK raid when sent off a well backed 15/2 for the Ladbrokes Trophy. That was his last start, so wondering if he's had a problem, or whether they're saving him for good ground in the Spring festivals?

He'd be of interest for me: top target trainer, likes good ground, sits up with the pace, top RPR over 3m trip, second season chaser. Ticks a hell of a lot of boxes. I appreciate he has run below par at two past Cheltenhams, which is a significant negative, but I'm not sure you can read too much into the Turners run in particular, where he was sent over for the prize money.

I've backed him, but have no idea about his health etc.
Like you say, he ticks a lot of boxes (the irish stat is nonsense really)
His performance figure for the ladbroke was 141 and he ran off 149, looking at the way the others around him were handicapped he might get a mark of around 147/148 which gives him a fighting chance, and he's only just turned 6.

[charlie]

Big fat F last time out does not bode well for his chances. And we don't know if he'd really stay 3m, let alone the Ultima trip.

You really don't like him do you

If he fell at the first or even half way through then your first sentence would be fair - I saw enough.

Was doing all his best work late as per - ticks lots of boxes for this on paper.

[Quevega]

You really don't like him do you

If he fell at the first or even half way through then your first sentence would be fair - I saw enough.

Was doing all his best work late as per - ticks lots of boxes for this on paper.

The letter stat went last year anyway so the F is not a concern (and never was a logically stat anyhow). and the good doctor should know better.

The weight and iffy jumping in general are more of a concern, and the trainer possibly not entering him, based on recent press.
Sounded very much like a graded race next (but away from the big festivals).