2023 Ultima Handicap Chase

[Faugheen_Machine]

Does anyone have the rating of the bottom horse for the last 5 years?

[Madmoose]

I only have one backed for this and that was Lord Accord prior to his prep run in the Cleeve last time out, still happy to have him and will back again soon.

[Benjy23]

Does anyone have the rating of the bottom horse for the last 5 years?

137, 140, 133, 138, 134... I think

[doctorwu]

Threeunderthrufive has to be the obvious shout here. Has run in the two key English trials for the race (not so well in the Hennessey, but really nicely in the classic) and is owned by the sponsors. Has some course distance form and races prominently which I've always felt is important in this race. Just a shame his price reflects how obvious he is.

Nichols never won the race.

[Native River]

I only have one backed for this and that was Lord Accord prior to his prep run in the Cleeve last time out, still happy to have him and will back again soon.

This is definitely the only British horse angle I've found and liked so far, especially as the Cleeve has a solid record in the Ultima and Mulholland used this as a prerp before solid Ultima runs twice for Young Master.

[doctorwu]

Into Overdrive an obvious one.
Corach, Our Power, Tea Clipper, Lord Accord fit all the key trends.

[charlie]

Ga Law.

Travelled into the latter part of 3m very well despite making a mistake early and then falling at the last. That spared him an obligatory 5-7lbs rise and he was 'hit' with just 2.

Recorded an RPR of 158 which is highest to date - thats a stat you want ticked off for this.

His achilles heel is his jumping. Fair enough if that puts people off.

You have to jump well to win but he didn't jump overly well when winning at Cheltenham because thats just what good horses do

12/1 NRNB is very fair IMO and NRNB is worth taking given the fall last time out - we don't know if thats left a mark, so protection worthwhile.

[doctorwu]

Ga Law.

Travelled into the latter part of 3m very well despite making a mistake early and then falling at the last. That spared him an obligatory 5-7lbs rise and he was 'hit' with just 2.

Recorded an RPR of 158 which is highest to date - thats a stat you want ticked off for this.

His achilles heel is his jumping. Fair enough if that puts people off.

You have to jump well to win but he didn't jump overly well when winning at Cheltenham because thats just what good horses do

12/1 NRNB is very fair IMO and NRNB is worth taking given the fall last time out - we don't know if thats left a mark, so protection worthwhile.

Big fat F last time out does not bode well for his chances. And we don't know if he'd really stay 3m, let alone the Ultima trip.

[Odin]

Nichols never won the race.

I'm sure you'll agree he rarely has a horse with the right profile who takes in the right races though?

[Blackdownhills]

Don't think thunder rock can be discounted. Think the step up in trip won't hurt, although would have liked to have seen him run at a distance similar under rules. Nassaslam I think is one who would appreciate a step up in trip,ran well at Cheltenham LTO. Limited experience a slight concern. If they turn up and head gear is applied,it'll give me some more confidence

[Istabraq]

Does anyone have the rating of the bottom horse for the last 5 years?

Courtesy of Saxon Warrior

2022 1st OR 140, 2nd OR 138, 3rd OR 138, 4th OR 145 (High OR 164, Low OR 138) 24 ran
2021 1st OR 143, 2nd OR 147, 3rd OR 154, 4th OR 158 (High OR 158, Low OR 132) 16 ran
2020 1st OR 139, 2nd OR 150, 3rd OR 148, 4th OR 159 (High OR 159, Low OR 133). 23 ran
2019 1st OR 151, 2nd OR 144, 3rd OR 155, 4th OR 140 (High OR 155, Low OR 140). 24 ran
2018 1st OR 142, 2nd OR 152, 3rd OR 131, 4th OR 150 (High OR 155, Low OR 137). 18 ran
2017 1st OR 155, 2nd OR 142, 3rd OR 154, 4th OR 145 (High OR 155, Low OR 134). 23 ran
2016 1st OR 148, 2nd OR 153, 3rd OR 149, 4th OR 150 (High OR 153, Low OR 131). 23 ran
2015 1st OR 146, 2nd OR 143, 3rd OR 134, 4th OR 139 (High OR 155, Low OR 133). 24 ran
2014 1st OR 145, 2nd OR 143, 3rd OR 131, 4th OR 143 (High OR 151, Low OR 129). 23 ran
2013 1st OR 132, 2nd OR 145, 3rd OR 132, 4th OR 133 (High OR 153, Low OR 132). 24 ran

[Benjy23]

Got four out of five, I'll take that

Quite a big variance though even in just the last four years. 132 to 140 you'd think would cover a few possible runners.

Have checked the above and the 132 was out of the handicap by the way, which is my excuse for missing it.

[Istabraq]

Got four out of five, I'll take that

Quite a big variance though even in just the last four years. 132 to 140 you'd think would cover a few possible runners.

Have checked the above and the 132 was out of the handicap by the way, which is my excuse for missing it.

That would have been the Covid year when entries were down re travel restrictions.
I'd say you need 135 be to sure of getting in...

[robith]

I've been struggling trying to find an English based horse at a price iIreally fancy for the Ultima.

I think a lot will depend on whether Frodon (or161) lines up again or not.

Haven't heard anything about Le Milos since the Hennessy - apart from Skelton aiming for Aintree - but if Frodon comes here and Le Milos turns up for a GN prep then he'd have a good chance off 152.

But if the head of the handicap is 156-158 I wouldn't be interested in Le Milos.

The others I was interested in are Our Power and Tea Clipper who are two more returners to consider. Both ran well (aged 7) last year. Tea Clipper is 33-1 in places but he's entered for the big Kempton handicap at the end of this month and afraid I'm not a great fan of Charlie Deutsch who rides Our Power (20-1).

The Cheltenham novice races which normally feed into the Ultima don't seem to have thrown up any candidates who look as though they're in need of the extra half mile.

And I'm fast coming to the conclusion that maybe the Ultima winner may reside in Ireland this year. So more swotting required on that score.

Also thinking that if Spectre is hoping to unearth a 40-1 Naiad in the Ultima this year he's got his work cut out.

And one more thought while I'm at it....

Was wondering if it would be fun/illuminating to set up a handicap thread in the members section where we spent 24-hours brain-storming one particular race......just for example, say we started with the Ultima.....we open the thread and say: "right from 8am this Tuesday till 8am on Wednesday anyone who's interested puts forward a horse (s) and makes a case (s) why its a good bet for this race. People can support the case/pick holes in the case/suggest other horses etc and we really concentrate on this one race and try to come up with a consensus to jump on a big price early. Then the following week we pick another handicap and give that one a 24-hour deep dive. Don't see why the idea would interfere/undermine the existing handicap threads because as we all know the landscape changes practically every day. But it would give members a chance to take part in a sort of written podcast-style problem-solving session on a weekly basis with a 24-hour deadline to concentrate everyone's mind. Maybe I'm in a minority of one in thinking this might work - in which case no worries, it was just an idea. But I had visions of our own little UTA style concentrated session to look forward to at a time (most of February and early March) when most of the Cheltenham players will not be running again before the Festival. What d'you reckon?

We bringing Scrum Sprints from Agile to FJ? I for one am here for it

[ComplyOrDie]

Into Overdrive an obvious one.
Corach, Our Power, Tea Clipper, Lord Accord fit all the key trends.

Would love Corach to turn back up bit sounding unlikely from the early season interviews.