2023 Arkle Novices Chase

[DenmanSacre]

For the book builders, has anyone done a comparison after the event on what they'd have won by moving their place stakes to the win only bet and having a pseudo win only ante post book as a comparison?

I can see in some years (Shishkins Arkle year for example where I imagine he was always plenty short) that the place winnings would likely be better but Shishkins Supreme would maybe be the opposite where he was available at 33s before his first run and 40s after his fall and place winnings would be unlikely to bridge the gap.

Never done book building really and mainly do win only so just interested if any one has looked at it.

I'm guessing the answer will be that it depends on the race and probably not actually much in it?

[Kevloaf]

For the book builders, has anyone done a comparison after the event on what they'd have won by moving their place stakes to the win only bet and having a pseudo win only ante post book as a comparison?

I can see in some years (Shishkins Arkle year for example where I imagine he was always plenty short) that the place winnings would likely be better but Shishkins Supreme would maybe be the opposite where he was available at 33s before his first run and 40s after his fall and place winnings would be unlikely to bridge the gap.

Never done book building really and mainly do win only so just interested if any one has looked at it.

I'm guessing the answer will be that it depends on the race and probably not actually much in it?

Yeah I do it after each year, usually compare against what I had backed on 1st Jan every year too which is usually in my favour but the odd race slips through where you'd be better off doing nothing.

I've had enough winners from plugging gaps (Put The Kettle On / Duc des Genivres both immediately spring to mind) in this race alone 'on the day' that make me pretty confident in it. Especially with NRNB coming in so early nowadays too.


Overall, I find I give away some profit overall each race, in what I like to describe as 'faffing' but every so often I have a double figured winner that if I hadn't 'faffed' it'd have been a losing race. One that sticks out was the epic RSA when we had Topofthegame winning SAntini and Delta Work, I had just those 3 for good returns and ending up covering the field and just essentially gave away profit... itwas that result in particular that made me do the analysis myself...

As a book builder, profit from every race is the first objective. Maximising the profit and being more selective is the opposite end of the scale. Someone backing 1 horse per race and winning every race would obviosuly be way ahead... but I've not come across anyone even near that level yet....

I didn't post my analysis last year but not feeling burnt out this year so may well do and I'll make sure I put it all up as it's good to drive a bit of convo

[DenmanSacre]

Yeah I do it after each year, usually compare against what I had backed on 1st Jan every year too which is usually in my favour but the odd race slips through where you'd be better off doing nothing.

I've had enough winners from plugging gaps (Put The Kettle On / Duc des Genivres both immediately spring to mind) in this race alone 'on the day' that make me pretty confident in it. Especially with NRNB coming in so early nowadays too.


Overall, I find I give away some profit overall each race, in what I like to describe as 'faffing' but every so often I have a double figured winner that if I hadn't 'faffed' it'd have been a losing race. One that sticks out was the epic RSA when we had Topofthegame winning SAntini and Delta Work, I had just those 3 for good returns and ending up covering the field and just essentially gave away profit... itwas that result in particular that made me do the analysis myself...

As a book builder, profit from every race is the first objective. Maximising the profit and being more selective is the opposite end of the scale. Someone backing 1 horse per race and winning every race would obviosuly be way ahead... but I've not come across anyone even near that level yet....

I didn't post my analysis last year but not feeling burnt out this year so may well do and I'll make sure I put it all up as it's good to drive a bit of convo

Thanks for answering.

[Lobos]

Why the collapse in odds for Banbridge?? Into a general 10's. Was 25's a few days ago. Tipped up ?? Or have you had a lump on as cover Kev?

[Saxon Warrior]

Why the collapse in odds for Banbridge?? Into a general 10's. Was 25's a few days ago. Tipped up ?? Or have you had a lump on as cover Kev?

Probably nothing more than firms going from antepost to NRNB Lobos

Betfair and Coral, leaving Unibet as the lone Antepost firm, getting scared and cutting him, which isn’t unusual for them when they’re the biggest price.

He is 40s for the Arkle on BFX if you want a true antepost price for the race without NRNB,

[Lobos]

40's!!! That is mahoosive.

[Kevloaf]

10 points each way on Appreciate It for the Arkle NRNB at 10/1

Won't turn up unless El Fabiolo is out and if he does, he is 100% finishing in the first 3.



Went off fav for that race, confidence in him beforehand was strong and still ran okay.... a previous festival supreme winner won't go off 10/1 either....

There is literally no risk IMO.




It's also a massive waste of time, but still Nowt else happening on here tonight!

[Lobos]

Willie thinks Saint Roi could be the dark horse in the Arkle.

[Old Vic]

Willie thinks Saint Roi could be the dark horse in the Arkle.

first past the post at DRF

[EnvoiAlien]

first past the post at DRF

The 2nd was giving him 11-12 though

[Rooster Booster]

The 2nd was giving him 11-12 though

Jockeyless races ...now that’s an idea....and some dare to call greyhounds dodgy

[ComplyOrDie]

Nicky Henderson admits he may have left JONBON short for the Kingmaker at Warwick:

"He blew for 40 minutes afterwards; it was a wake-up call for everyone. It’s possible I’d underdone the whole thing."

As per RoadToCheltenham on Twitter

[Istabraq]

Nicky Henderson admits he may have left JONBON short for the Kingmaker at Warwick:

"He blew for 40 minutes afterwards; it was a wake-up call for everyone. It’s possible I’d underdone the whole thing."

As per RoadToCheltenham on Twitter

I’ve got a feeling Jonbon is this years Shishkin, the positive coming out of Seven Barrows are all for other horses, Jonbon rarely mentioned.
He’s been strong in the market recently but so was Shishkin last year.
Just a hunch…

[Quevega]

Nicky Henderson admits he may have left JONBON short for the Kingmaker at Warwick:

"He blew for 40 minutes afterwards; it was a wake-up call for everyone. It’s possible I’d underdone the whole thing."

As per RoadToCheltenham on Twitter

Coincidence he comes out with this now, the day before Calico runs again ??
Wet Leg.

[ComplyOrDie]

Coincidence he comes out with this now, the day before Calico runs again ??
Wet Leg.

Haha yeah, I know!