2023 Arkle Novices Chase

[Lobos]

Is it not more likely the Mullins trained Arkle horse goes off fav if the Mullins trained Supreme horse wins ?
I think most doubles/trebles on the day go like this…

Don't think so. Jonbon has always been going Arkle whereas EF was the poor relation to Appreciate It where the Arkle was concerned. The bigger roll ups will be Vega/Jonbon..

[AaronLad]

How are you defining popular?

He was 10/1 NRNB before today and is 10/1 NRNB now.

Maybe a few bookies clipped because he's been left in... I wouldn't say that's significant... maybe people are just hedging at 10/1 though as NRNB that is a decent price as he'd only run if 1 of the big guns came out, and people are looking at that option today ... not many (in the grand scheme) look at that as far out as 'we' do?

Do you think this is the only scenario that sees him run in the arkle?
Having faced mighty potter over 2 1/2 on soft ground and got smashed further than the irish arkle, would connections not go to the arkle if the going looks likely to be soft at declaration stage?

[Kevloaf]

Do you think this is the only scenario that sees him run in the arkle?
Having faced mighty potter over 2 1/2 on soft ground and got smashed further than the irish arkle, would connections not go to the arkle if the going looks likely to be soft at declaration stage?

No, genuine soft ground would be a reason too, but I still don't think it'd seal the deal.

I did take 10/1 NRNB a little while back and would be doing today if I hadn't ... my point was just I don't think bookies are clipping him because people know he's coming here, it's that people are realising 10/1 NRNB is fair enough as he'd go off shorter and might run.... so the 'very popular here' comment was one I was commenting on, to give it some context

[Lobos]

Do you think this is the only scenario that sees him run in the arkle?
Having faced mighty potter over 2 1/2 on soft ground and got smashed further than the irish arkle, would connections not go to the arkle if the going looks likely to be soft at declaration stage?

That would be my take on it as well and another reason he's blue across the boards today with the expected rain.

[AaronLad]

No, genuine soft ground would be a reason too, but I still don't think it'd seal the deal.

I did take 10/1 NRNB a little while back and would be doing today if I hadn't ... my point was just I don't think bookies are clipping him because people know he's coming here, it's that people are realising 10/1 NRNB is fair enough as he'd go off shorter and might run.... so the 'very popular here' comment was one I was commenting on, to give it some context

Yeah I get you was pulling lobos up on the "very popular" comment. I think your reasons for the oddschecker blue are probably correct.
But I also think there's more chance of him coming here than you initially acknowledged, with the "he'd only run if one of the big guns came out" comment.
I think it's more 50/50 now than last week anyhow but that's only my opinion.

[AaronLad]

That would be my take on it as well and another reason he's blue across the boards today with the expected rain.

Yeah I don't think he'll perform to his optimum in soft conditions, but I think the c&d win in november will convince them to go arkle on unfavoured ground rather than the turners, considering his drinmore effort on soft.

[charlie]

betfair boost El Fab 2/1

[Quevega]

Don't think so. Jonbon has always been going Arkle whereas EF was the poor relation to Appreciate It where the Arkle was concerned. The bigger roll ups will be Vega/Jonbon..

The liabilities from us mugs on here are minimal, compared to on the day markets.
Like Istabraq said, I'd imagine most multiples will be mullins related. But I suppose some would stick Jonbon in also.

[Quevega]

betfair boost El Fab 2/1

Thats a piss take.
6/4 each of 2 is not what it will be after decs.
Would work out nice though is Jonbon got pulled.

[Benjy23]

betfair boost El Fab 2/1

They know what they're doing there.

[Kevloaf]

Yeah I get you was pulling lobos up on the "very popular" comment. I think your reasons for the oddschecker blue are probably correct.
But I also think there's more chance of him coming here than you initially acknowledged, with the "he'd only run if one of the big guns came out" comment.
I think it's more 50/50 now than last week anyhow but that's only my opinion.

Fair enough.

Not a hill I'm going to die on

I've got 3 figures on the exchanges and laid off for a free bet, so run him here, what do I care

[Quevega]

Banbridge is shit.

[AaronLad]

Banbridge is shit.

So is funanmbule sivola but Kevloaf backed him too for 3 figure odds

[Quevega]

So is funanmbule sivola but Kevloaf backed him too for 3 figure odds

He's shit as well

[Kevloaf]

He's shit as well

So is Authorised Speed