2023 Arkle Novices Chase

[EnvoiAlien]

Dysart will do his usual,go off too fast,show some promise then fold up from 2 out, much as I love his style of racing his form in both codes is woeful, best horse he's beaten is Flame Bearer over hurdles & fences..and FB isn't exactly a natural over fences,quite far from it, trying to get DD to switch off early would be like asking Binocular to not pull.
I just hope he keeps out of everyones way when he starts to tire.

[charlie]

I think if Danny Mullins rides better fractions than he did at the DRF, both Jonbon and El Fabiolo might have difficulty making up ground to Dysart Dynamo.

He'll be allowed the lead, and he just needs to be steadier over the first half mile, and then to wind it up from there.

The Old Course at Cheltenham, is much easier to get home over than Leopardstaown, and I can see him putting the jumping of the other two being under pressure and perhaps not actually getting to him, making the above debate all about which between Jonbon and El Fab finishes second and third.

I don't think EF will have any difficulty reeling in DD. DJ had DD in his sights the whole way at the DRF and despite making two mistakes, breezed past DD. Jonbon looked to be doing the same in the Supreme, but DD fell before we can know for sure. DD is a wonderful jumper and a joy to watch, but his issue is definitely between his ears. Nobody rides from the front better than Danny, I'm just not sure the horse knows how to race anything other than choke out. Tactically it will be interesting. If Danny can get a breather into him coming down the hill from the top bend then he may conserve enough energy to sustain a strong finish up the hill, but it's a big 'if' IMO.

[Quevega]

To my eye, he looked more tractable in Dublin and it was Danny setting the fractions not just going with the horse.
This may be different at Cheltenham though as he might get giddy.
But if he is more tractable, then Danny might get a soft lead and make it more of a speed test and not bring the stamina of EF into it as much.
He's rightly third FAV though and he has it all to do.

[ComplyOrDie]

To my eye, he looked more tractable in Dublin and it was Danny setting the fractions not just going with the horse.
This may be different at Cheltenham though as he might get giddy.
But if he is more tractable, then Danny might get a soft lead and make it more of a speed test and not bring the stamina of EF into it as much.
He's rightly third FAV though and he has it all to do.

Willie will be happy however it plays out I think, if DD goes quick it sets it up for the closers, like EF & Saint Roi, and if he doesn't and Danny does manage to get the fractions right he could 'nick' the race with DD from the front.

I wonder what they plan to do with Jonbon.

[Spectre]

To my eye, he looked more tractable in Dublin and it was Danny setting the fractions not just going with the horse.
This may be different at Cheltenham though as he might get giddy.
But if he is more tractable, then Danny might get a soft lead and make it more of a speed test and not bring the stamina of EF into it as much.
He's rightly third FAV though and he has it all to do.

That was my view too. I think Danny Mullins is smart enough to know the best way of winning the race, and I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility we could have an upset in the race. Ironically, going too quick and not seeing it out at Leopardstown may actually work in his favour at Cheltenham.

[ComplyOrDie]

Saint Roi not currently entered if Betfair's Arkle market is to be believed.

[ComplyOrDie]

Saint Roi not currently entered if Betfair's Arkle market is to be believed.

Saint Roi now in

[Lobos]

Saint Roi now in

[EnvoiAlien]

Ballybreez
	Banbridge (IRE)
	Dysart Dynamo (IRE)
	Effernock Fizz (IRE)
	El Fabiolo (FR)
	Final Orders
	Ha d'Or (FR)
	Hollow Games (IRE)
	Jonbon (FR)
	Mortlach
	Saint Roi (FR)
	Straw Fan Jack

[Lobos]

Jonbon fav again

[charlie]

Jonbon fav again

Would assume thats sheer weight/frequency of money from Joe public as he seems more popular than EF on the preview circuit. He's an easy horse to tip. Lots of 1's next to his name, Henderson is bullish, he's related to Douvan and before Warwick he jumped immaculately. I do find the previews quite frustrating though because the vast majority of cases are boiled down to 'he's a better jumper'. I've yet to hear a strong form case re Jonbon and that because I don't think there is one, hence why I think the 'smart money' from more serious punters will come late and hard for EF and he'll go off fav.

[Lobos]

If Vega wins then Jonbon will definitely go off fav. There will be big liabilities with the Vega/Jonbon/C Hill Banker Treble that it seems every man and his dog did early doors.

EF is my biggest winner but I am worried about his jumping a little and would much prefer DJ on him as at least he now knows how to ride him and get the best out of him. If PT gets back on then I'd personally view that as a negative.

[Lobos]

Banbridge very popular today. Perhaps the drop of rain and his liking of the course might entice them back over 2 miles.

[Istabraq]

If Vega wins then Jonbon will definitely go off fav.

Is it not more likely the Mullins trained Arkle horse goes off fav if the Mullins trained Supreme horse wins ?
I think most doubles/trebles on the day go like this…

[Kevloaf]

Banbridge very popular today. Perhaps the drop of rain and his liking of the course might entice them back over 2 miles.

How are you defining popular?

He was 10/1 NRNB before today and is 10/1 NRNB now.

Maybe a few bookies clipped because he's been left in... I wouldn't say that's significant... maybe people are just hedging at 10/1 though as NRNB that is a decent price as he'd only run if 1 of the big guns came out, and people are looking at that option today ... not many (in the grand scheme) look at that as far out as 'we' do?