2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[thorne365]

Was sure either TK or Blake did something on Ruby before that said he/the market used to get it right the vast majority of the time - tried to find it but could only find this - does indicate market generally right as well but 2nd string not a bad route [which im pretty certain wasnt the case in the one i had read]

[archie]

No-one will be surprised that this discussion is a regular feature on group WhatsApps for syndicate horses with Willie. There are many examples of both Ruby and Paul getting it right and wrong, eg

Ruby rode Bellshill rather than Al Boum Photo or Kemboy in the 2019 Gold Cup. Having ridden Kemboy to victory at Aintree he stuck with him at Punchestown and the rest is history.

Paul preferred Melon to Kemboy for the Irish Gold Cup in 2021 which let in Danny who later expressed his surprise at Paul's choice.

Before Kemboy's recent win our syndicate spokesman said to Willie that he took it as a good sign that Paul Had chosen to ride him rather than Carefully Selected. The response? "You should do."

As has been said, the choice is far more difficult with novices because they go nowhere near competitive gallops with their main contenders. Sometimes different jockeys just get on better with different horses but you usually only find that out on the track.

[Spectre]

Was sure either TK or Blake did something on Ruby before that said he/the market used to get it right the vast majority of the time - tried to find it but could only find this - does indicate market generally right as well but 2nd string not a bad route [which im pretty certain wasnt the case in the one i had read]

The interesting thing to take out of that is that the second string in handicaps perform pretty well.

There's a logic to Townend picking the best novice over the season and usually getting it right, whereas that's far more difficult in handicaps, especially as Willie isn't really one for laying them out. Also as an observation, riding in big field handicaps compared to an 8 runner graded race is a bit like comparing Rugby Union to Rugby League. They're the same, but very different. And whilst I could be completely off the mark with this because I have no specific evidence, but Paul Townend has never made me feel as though I want to be on a handicapper just because he's riding.

[ComplyOrDie]

Betfair/PP already started marking horses up as N/R's for this race in their markets

Impaire Et Passe
Gaelic Warrior
Luccia
Hunters Yarn
Dark Raven

plus others all in that list.

[ComplyOrDie]

Betfair/PP already started marking horses up as N/R's for this race in their markets

Impaire Et Passe
Gaelic Warrior
Luccia
Hunters Yarn
Dark Raven

plus others all in that list.

Seems like Willie is playing, as always, IEP, GW & HY all now entered

[Lobos]

Betfair/PP already started marking horses up as N/R's for this race in their markets

Impaire Et Passe
Gaelic Warrior
Luccia
Hunters Yarn
Dark Raven

plus others all in that list.

COD climaxing early.....

[ComplyOrDie]

COD climaxing early.....

Just keeping things updated mate

[Hardy Eustace]

COD climaxing early.....

Mrs COD tells me its not the first time!

[Dandrew99]

Impaire Et Passe is getting pretty short on the exchanges for here... 13s currently. As short as I remember seeing him.

[Lobos]

Impaire Et Passe is getting pretty short on the exchanges for here... 13s currently. As short as I remember seeing him.

Nothing set in stone yet. The Supreme has always been talked of as an option by Willie.

[Dandrew99]

Nothing set in stone yet. The Supreme has always been talked of as an option by Willie.

It has, but he's still been near enough triple figures every time I've looked until today. Could mean absolutely nothing but I was surprised.

Still don't see IEP going to the Supreme unless they step Facile Vega up to the Ballymore myself, those two definitely seem that the stable 1 and 2.

[PresentingPercy]

Impaire Et Passe is getting pretty short on the exchanges for here... 13s currently. As short as I remember seeing him.

Slashed into 2s across the board for the Ballymore and also on the exchanges

[Run4Home]

It has, but he's still been near enough triple figures every time I've looked until today. Could mean absolutely nothing but I was surprised.

Still don't see IEP going to the Supreme unless they step Facile Vega up to the Ballymore myself, those two definitely seem that the stable 1 and 2.

Its already done - FV goes Supreme and IEP Ballymore and Paul rides both.

Only way IEP goes Supreme is if something happened FV

[Dandrew99]

Slashed into 2s across the board for the Ballymore and also on the exchanges

Yeah, not saying it means anything, just notable and surprising to me.

[EnvoiAlien]

American Mike
Chasing Fire
Dark Raven
Diverge
Doctor Bravo
Facile Vega
Fennor Cross
Gaelic Warrior
Golden Rules
High Definition
Hunters Yarn
Il Etait Temps
Impaire Et Passe
Inthepocket
Marine Nationale
Nemean Lion
Palace Boy
Rare Edition
Strong Leader
Tahmuras