2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[Quevega]

I think its simply a question of can they get FV back to his best in time. If they can, he beats IET. As you say that then becomes a question of value... I thought 3/1 was fair enough but he's getting too short now.

Might be an odd thing to say, but if you switch the two runs around. And FV had bombed out at Xmas, then beat IET as easily as he did, but at the DRF, what price would FV be now? Almost certainly odds on. So he's definitely still value based on respective ability. Looking back, he perhaps didn't get the credit he deserved for beating IET and AD so easily at Christmas.

Yeah, a good way of putting it, and both runs have arguable cases/excuses for either horse.
Also, it's not a 2 horse race really.

[HesTheOne]

I think its simply a question of can they get FV back to his best in time. If they can, he beats IET. As you say that then becomes a question of value... I thought 3/1 was fair enough but he's getting too short now.

Might be an odd thing to say, but if you switch the two runs around. And FV had bombed out at Xmas, then beat IET as easily as he did, but at the DRF, what price would FV be now? Almost certainly odds on. So he's definitely still value based on respective ability. Looking back, he perhaps didn't get the credit he deserved for beating IET and AD so easily at Christmas.

Judging by the comments on here from stable connections he's in tip top form, the nagging concern I have for FV was how lit up he was LTO before the race and just at the off.

Add in the build up of the first race of the festival and the noise and tension that surely brings, I'm hoping they can keep him somewhat cool and not boiling over before it even begins.

[Kevloaf]

Willie's 2nd and 3rd strings beating their perceived 1st string happens a lot doesn't it?

Or does it?

That's something I feel I read about 4 years ago..... I'd say since Ruby retired it's probably happened more often.

[charlie]

In hindsight, it's absolutely hilarious that a Mullins/Ruby Supreme horse who won at the DRF went off 6s isn't it

Yeh it really pissed me off! What made it worse was people I respect on here making the case and ignoring them too!

[Kevloaf]

Yeh it really pissed me off! What made it worse was people I respect on here making the case and ignoring them too!

Respect your elders, and do not ****, with the big boys, yeh?

[charlie]

Willie's 2nd and 3rd strings beating their perceived 1st string happens a lot doesn't it?

Or does it?

That's something I feel I read about 4 years ago..... I'd say since Ruby retired it's probably happened more often.

Happens a fair bit

Il Etait Temps beat Facile Vega
Champ Kiely beat Grangeclare West
Ashroe Diamond beat Champ Kiely
El Fabiolo beat Appreciate It
GM beat Lossiemouth
GDM beat Blue Lord

[Quevega]

Happens a fair bit

Il Etait Temps beat Facile Vega
Champ Kiely beat Grangeclare West
Ashroe Diamond beat Champ Kiely
El Fabiolo beat Appreciate It
GM beat Lossiemouth
GDM beat Blue Lord

Just this season that as well.

[charlie]

Just this season that as well.

Yeh I was just thinking recent ones I can remember, must be loads more.

[Saxon Warrior]

I agree, it's a tough call.
I've sided with what I've seen, based on prices, but know full well, this often turns out wrong.
And I tend to go with the perceived value of course, if the prices were the other way around I'd likely back Vega.

When Ive lost on a race, I take more comfort when its a horse I picked and backed, rather than if/when it started out as someone else's idea, and I checked it out, then followed them in

Therefore the former types of bets are the most prevalent,
The latter, are much less often

[Kevloaf]

Happens a fair bit

Il Etait Temps beat Facile Vega
Champ Kiely beat Grangeclare West
Ashroe Diamond beat Champ Kiely
El Fabiolo beat Appreciate It
GM beat Lossiemouth
GDM beat Blue Lord

For context, the list of winning favourites would be a heck of a lot bigger...

It's the percentage I'd be interested in seeing..... but, I suppose my overall point was that it's not uncommon, so Willie being very bullish about it, doesn't always get backed up ....

We try and pick holes in every horse, when one of the holes is plugged with "trainer is bullish" it's not the most effective.... for all that we obviously do appreciate that he knows what he's doing!

[FinalFurlong91]

Yeh I was just thinking recent ones I can remember, must be loads more.

I feel like it happens less at the festival in the grade 1s than it does elsewhere

[charlie]

For context, the list of winning favourites would be a heck of a lot bigger...

It's the percentage I'd be interested in seeing..... but, I suppose my overall point was that it's not uncommon, so Willie being very bullish about it, doesn't always get backed up ....

We try and pick holes in every horse, when one of the holes is plugged with "trainer is bullish" it's not the most effective.... for all that we obviously do appreciate that he knows what he's doing!

Oh way bigger - I'm sure someone has the numbers somewhere in the Twittershpere, id love to see them.

I think FV is particularly interesting because he's been the apple of Willies eye for such a long time. For me that makes Willies confidence matter significantly less. I thought the excuses were a little out of character LTO, as was being so openly critical of Paul. The vibe and focus from the yard seems to still be about excusing the run LTO and not talking about the attributes that make him worthy of such a short price.

I genuinely don't think il be pissed off if FV sluices in because I know that over time taking on horses with his profile and form will pay handsomely in the long run.

[darlojim]

Willie's 2nd and 3rd strings beating their perceived 1st string happens a lot doesn't it?

Or does it?

That's something I feel I read about 4 years ago..... I'd say since Ruby retired it's probably happened more often.

Yeah it does, but does it at the festival?

[Quevega]

Yeah it does, but does it at the festival?

It's more likely to happen more often in the bumper and novice races for obvious reasons.

I think it's possibly not something we should focus too much upon as each season differs and there is no doubt that Willie is getting bigger
It's not that often he's ran several in a race at Cheltenham, although this has been on the increase and he may well have several in each of the novice hurdles this year.
In other Spring festival's where he has regularly ran more horses due to the locality then his favourites have been turned over more from memory.

[Odin]

Willie's 2nd and 3rd strings beating their perceived 1st string happens a lot doesn't it?

Or does it?

That's something I feel I read about 4 years ago..... I'd say since Ruby retired it's probably happened more often.

Courtesy of horseracebase, Willie Mullins record at Cheltenham by "string" based on SP. Shortest SP = 1st string.

1st string: 36 wins, 185 runs (19.46%, -27.41 SP)
2nd string: 14 wins, 180 runs (7.78%, -15.87 SP)
3rd string: 4 wins, 95 runs (4.21%, -14 SP) - thousand stars, briar hill, bleu berry, al boum photo 2019
4th string: 2 wins, 45 runs (4.44%, +32 SP) - relegate and eglantine de seuil for those interested


Edit: in relation to Quevega point of Mullins getting bigger. Last 3 years results.

1st string: 13-51 25.49%, +3.49 SP.
Not 1st string: 7-107 6.54%, -51.87 SP. Winners elimay 22, the nice guy 22, colreevy 21, galopin des champs 21, sir Gerhard 21, concertista 20, ferny hollow 20