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Plenty of interesting points, and after the festival I'll try and remember (or you remind me) and I want to delve into the rule about no 8/1 before Chrsitmas. I think that's very interesting!
i do disagree slightly with one of the points about FV going off bigger on the day. I don’t think he will, I think he could shorten which is mad crazy, but with the way the markets have been this year and the way the previews are going (happy to give FV another chance), it wouldn’t surprise me FV went off bigger. There isn’t a big name in that field for the casual punters to get stuck into
i do disagree slightly with one of the points about FV going off bigger on the day. I don’t think he will, I think he could shorten which is mad crazy, but with the way the markets have been this year and the way the previews are going (happy to give FV another chance), it wouldn’t surprise me FV went off bigger. There isn’t a big name in that field for the casual punters to get stuck into
Again though, enjoy that post
FV has to go off bigger doesn't he?
Just has to..... every year we think the same and it's so, so rare they shorten from a week out...
No way the "public" smash in with a duck egg next to him.....
3/1 the field I'd say at least.... If Facile Vega goes off 2/1 or shorter (if the main rivals don't all get injured) I'll be staggered
i do disagree slightly with one of the points about FV going off bigger on the day. I don’t think he will, I think he could shorten which is mad crazy, but with the way the markets have been this year and the way the previews are going (happy to give FV another chance), it wouldn’t surprise me FV went off bigger. There isn’t a big name in that field for the casual punters to get stuck into
Again though, enjoy that post
I think he will go off around 2/1 but higher will be available between 10am and 12pm. 3 of the main bookmakers are still 5/2 and could hold out until decs and lengthen Already shortening and he's got a lot of the racing press backing him for this.
Those ?2 Sky Bets will also push the price in!
3) Change in handicap hurdle rules. I think this will be a massive change to the depth of the novice hurdles. In the last 3 years, the County has produced 3 novice winners who have won grade 1s following their Cheltenham win - State Man (novice and open grade 1s), Belfast Banter (Aintree grade 1) and Saint Roi (won a grade 1 novice chase). BB would have qualified for the County under the current rules bit the other 2, who are better, wouldn't have and would have been forced to go to the Supreme or miss the festival. Admittedly this probably hasn't changed the Supreme outlook this year but something I noted at the start of the year.
This got me thinking...
Both State Man and Saint Roi where late starters in their novice campaigns, and after their first defeats it set them both up with a nice mark for the the County.
2020 - Saint Roi went County, Mullins had Asterion Forlonge for the supreme (Shishkin won) and not a lot for the Ballymore (Envoi Allen won that year, he just had The Big Getaway).
2022 - State Man went County, Mullins had DD and Kilcuit for Supreme (Con Hill won). Sir G went and won Ballymore
Do we think Saint Roi and State Man would have faired better in the Supreme over those that ran in it? Despite their inexperience, then again they went onto win the county. Its unlikely either of them would have won the supreme in their year, they were won by two Henderson monsters. However, they may have faired very well in a average or weak renewal
This years Supreme looks open, and maybe... its worth looking at who may have been that county horse if the handicap rules had remained the same.
Both Saint Roi and State Man stated the season late, after 400-600 days off, both failing to win their first maiden but improving noticeably for the second run (136 and 133+ RPR respectively)
Diverge looks to be the interesting one here, similar sort of profile. Hit 140 RPR on his second run, winning by 23l. Open to improvement? Enough to feature in the supreme
Both State Man and Saint Roi where late starters in their novice campaigns, and after their first defeats it set them both up with a nice mark for the the County.
2020 - Saint Roi went County, Mullins had Asterion Forlonge for the supreme (Shishkin won) and not a lot for the Ballymore (Envoi Allen won that year, he just had The Big Getaway).
2022 - State Man went County, Mullins had DD and Kilcuit for Supreme (Con Hill won). Sir G went and won Ballymore
Do we think Saint Roi and State Man would have faired better in the Supreme over those that ran in it? Despite their inexperience, then again they went onto win the county. Its unlikely either of them would have won the supreme in their year, they were won by two Henderson monsters. However, they may have faired very well in a average or weak renewal
This years Supreme looks open, and maybe... its worth looking at who may have been that county horse if the handicap rules had remained the same.
Both Saint Roi and State Man stated the season late, after 400-600 days off, both failing to win their first maiden but improving noticeably for the second run (136 and 133+ RPR respectively)
Diverge looks to be the interesting one here, similar sort of profile. Hit 140 RPR on his second run, winning by 23l. Open to improvement? Enough to feature in the supreme
Just throwing it out there
Very intersting!
Diverge would be our handicap dark horse wouldn't he!
Both State Man and Saint Roi where late starters in their novice campaigns, and after their first defeats it set them both up with a nice mark for the the County.
2020 - Saint Roi went County, Mullins had Asterion Forlonge for the supreme (Shishkin won) and not a lot for the Ballymore (Envoi Allen won that year, he just had The Big Getaway).
2022 - State Man went County, Mullins had DD and Kilcuit for Supreme (Con Hill won). Sir G went and won Ballymore
Do we think Saint Roi and State Man would have faired better in the Supreme over those that ran in it? Despite their inexperience, then again they went onto win the county. Its unlikely either of them would have won the supreme in their year, they were won by two Henderson monsters. However, they may have faired very well in a average or weak renewal
This years Supreme looks open, and maybe... its worth looking at who may have been that county horse if the handicap rules had remained the same.
Both Saint Roi and State Man stated the season late, after 400-600 days off, both failing to win their first maiden but improving noticeably for the second run (136 and 133+ RPR respectively)
Diverge looks to be the interesting one here, similar sort of profile. Hit 140 RPR on his second run, winning by 23l. Open to improvement? Enough to feature in the supreme
Just throwing it out there
I don't think either would have won in their year but would have added to the race.
State Man would win an average or higher Supreme.
Despite what I've said, I think you could get horses running at 4 (like IET and Ha Dor over the last 2 years) and keeping their novice tags for the next year with more experience. Less runs required the following season for a potential handicap run.
I haven't got an opinion on Diverge yet but likely one I'd oppose I expect.
I don't think either would have won in their year but would have added to the race.
State Man would win an average or higher Supreme.
Despite what I've said, I think you could get horses running at 4 (like IET and Ha Dor over the last 2 years) and keeping their novice tags for the next year with more experience. Less runs required the following season for a potential handicap run.
I haven't got an opinion on Diverge yet but likely one I'd oppose I expect.
Would State Man have beaten Jonbon in the Supreme?
I don't think either would have won in their year but would have added to the race.
State Man would win an average or higher Supreme.
Despite what I've said, I think you could get horses running at 4 (like IET and Ha Dor over the last 2 years) and keeping their novice tags for the next year with more experience. Less runs required the following season for a potential handicap run.
I haven't got an opinion on Diverge yet but likely one I'd oppose I expect.
Willies novices were later out last season, State Man debuted at Christmas, and fell 2 out when an odds on Fav.
He injured his face, in the process, and took time to heal, so he didn’t win his MdnH until the week of the DRF.
So he was a longshot to be tried straight into the Supreme (due to having Dysart Dynamo, Sir Gerhard as the Grade 2 and 1 NovH over 2M to pick from)
- having also had a 2nd in France on Hurdles debut, he qualified for that years County Hurdle.
I had backed him the summer before for the Supreme, at 33/1, the profile of coming from a French hurdle background with decent form, suited Willies usual m.o. for the Supreme (put him up for the FJ Yankee in July 2021).
It was a big shame that he fell at Christmas, he was miles better than the opposition.
Same race as High Def won this year, on his way to the DRF Gade 1, and now the Supreme.
Thats the route State Man would have gone last season, imho, but for his fall, so it’s only by chance he was free to drop into the County.
Strangely, it worked out well for him, he won the County, and his Grade 1 at Punchy, and has kept on winning Grade 1s since.
He wouldn’t have beaten Con.Hill in last seasons Supreme, anyway.
Now they meet 12-months later for the big one.
Willie doesn’t plot Festival Handicap hurdles for novices, he just finds where he is with them when handicap entries are due.
This years County Hurdle novice entries for him are higher rated and more exposed than his two recent winners, so I’m not expecting a repeat in the race.
DenmanSacre great detail in that post - some points I agree with, some I disagree with. Without outstaying my welcome in a debate like this, if I could pick a few out to discuss they would be:
1/5 - Agree actually. Before Xmas I only really backed FV for the Ballymore as 2/1 at the time was very short for supreme, was aware of breeding and also the bumper record. At Xmas, he basically pulled til the second last though so is it a similar situation to Dysart Dynamo last year where he can go for either but because he doesn't settle quite as well, they're sending him to the Supreme? IEP on the other hand settles well and has the turn of foot needed for the Bally?
7 - Think HD went down far too early to be bullish about him destroying FV. I don't really buy that they went too fast as I alluded to in one of the earlier posts, but I definitely buy the idea that an overreach injury could cause a poor run - particularly at the tail end of a race. Problem is it's impossible to know when it happened and as it's essentially a timing problem in the way a horse strides (thanks Google), there's a distinct possibility in this scenario it did happen because HD taking him on tired him out a bit. Either way, I'm happy to take the injury as the cause of the poor run as PT essentially pulled FV before the last and forgive it with respect to his chances in the Supreme.
8 - Think the Xmas run boils down to a similar argument I've made with respect to Blood Destiny/Gaelic Warrior, except it happened in a Graded Hurdle rather than a Maiden. Ashroe and IET clearly weren't there to win, but FV was comfortably the best of the three on the day, going away at the end under less urgings - but more severe urgings than BD/GW in their respective races - than Ashroe/IET for me (again looks like we disagree there which is fine). Just shows he's got an engine, but we knew that anyway so there's loads of guesswork as always.
DenmanSacre great detail in that post - some points I agree with, some I disagree with. Without outstaying my welcome in a debate like this, if I could pick a few out to discuss they would be:
1/5 - Agree actually. Before Xmas I only really backed FV for the Ballymore as 2/1 at the time was very short for supreme, was aware of breeding and also the bumper record. At Xmas, he basically pulled til the second last though so is it a similar situation to Dysart Dynamo last year where he can go for either but because he doesn't settle quite as well, they're sending him to the Supreme? IEP on the other hand settles well and has the turn of foot needed for the Bally?
7 - Think HD went down far too early to be bullish about him destroying FV. I don't really buy that they went too fast as I alluded to in one of the earlier posts, but I definitely buy the idea that an overreach injury could cause a poor run - particularly at the tail end of a race. Problem is it's impossible to know when it happened and as it's essentially a timing problem in the way a horse strides (thanks Google), there's a distinct possibility in this scenario it did happen because HD taking him on tired him out a bit. Either way, I'm happy to take the injury as the cause of the poor run as PT essentially pulled FV before the last and forgive it with respect to his chances in the Supreme.
8 - Think the Xmas run boils down to a similar argument I've made with respect to Blood Destiny/Gaelic Warrior, except it happened in a Graded Hurdle rather than a Maiden. Ashroe and IET clearly weren't there to win, but FV was comfortably the best of the three on the day, going away at the end under less urgings - but more severe urgings than BD/GW in their respective races - than Ashroe/IET for me (again looks like we disagree there which is fine). Just shows he's got an engine, but we knew that anyway so there's loads of guesswork as always.
Good to get comments on it.
I decided to oppose him earlier in the season due to the first few reasons and added more to it throughout the year. A big one was Constitution Hill coming out the woodwork last year and who was to say a 160+ horse wasn't going to come forward again this year - I do think IET could be a 160+ horse and so I'm happy to continue to oppose FV.
I think his Xmas run was decent for a novice, but the race was a bit unsatisfactory for me. IET tried to make the running, jumped poorly at the first then didn't really try and get back even with FV to make it a race. Ashroe Diamond was never in it. And he just didn't pull away like I thought he would - he doesn't seem to have an electric turn of foot, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but they've switched him from coming off the pace in bumpers to leading, which I didn't expect at the start of the year.
He led again at the DRF but got took on by High Definition. He didn't seem that comfortable to me with someone taking him on - maybe that experience will do him some good and maybe they'll go back to riding him like his bumper season. I do think HD would have got the better of him but as you say, there was plenty of running to be done when HD came down.
He didn't give his true running at the DRF (probably a mixture of tactics, injury and being taken on and racing much earlier than normal) but IETs beating of Inthepocket and Dark Raven, who I rate highly, was brilliant and it's FV who needs to improve to IETs level going into Cheltenham than vice versa. If FV wasn't in the race, the majority of the talk after the race would be on the exceptional performance we just witnessed.
He still hasn't been a price I want (I nearly pushed the button after the DRF but watching it back I was far more impressed with IET and have made him my only live bet after Arctic Bresil disappointing). Would I feel differently if I had FV at higher prices with the Sky RABs - possibly but I'd like to think I'd judge his merit in the race based on what he's achieved as a novice and not on what price I've got him at.
Can he win - certainly. Is he a 2/1 shot - not for me. And as I only really have one or two horses per race, I'm happy to leave him alone.
If he wins the Supreme well and the other contenders run their race, then I'll be happy to see a super horse and look forward to him as presumably a novice chaser. From a betting POV, I'll dust myself down and look ahead to the remaining 27 races.
I decided to oppose him earlier in the season due to the first few reasons and added more to it throughout the year. A big one was Constitution Hill coming out the woodwork last year and who was to say a 160+ horse wasn't going to come forward again this year - I do think IET could be a 160+ horse and so I'm happy to continue to oppose FV.
I think his Xmas run was decent for a novice, but the race was a bit unsatisfactory for me. IET tried to make the running, jumped poorly at the first then didn't really try and get back even with FV to make it a race. Ashroe Diamond was never in it. And he just didn't pull away like I thought he would - he doesn't seem to have an electric turn of foot, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but they've switched him from coming off the pace in bumpers to leading, which I didn't expect at the start of the year.
He led again at the DRF but got took on by High Definition. He didn't seem that comfortable to me with someone taking him on - maybe that experience will do him some good and maybe they'll go back to riding him like his bumper season. I do think HD would have got the better of him but as you say, there was plenty of running to be done when HD came down.
He didn't give his true running at the DRF (probably a mixture of tactics, injury and being taken on and racing much earlier than normal) but IETs beating of Inthepocket and Dark Raven, who I rate highly, was brilliant and it's FV who needs to improve to IETs level going into Cheltenham than vice versa. If FV wasn't in the race, the majority of the talk after the race would be on the exceptional performance we just witnessed.
He still hasn't been a price I want (I nearly pushed the button after the DRF but watching it back I was far more impressed with IET and have made him my only live bet after Arctic Bresil disappointing). Would I feel differently if I had FV at higher prices with the Sky RABs - possibly but I'd like to think I'd judge his merit in the race based on what he's achieved as a novice and not on what price I've got him at.
Can he win - certainly. Is he a 2/1 shot - not for me. And as I only really have one or two horses per race, I'm happy to leave him alone.
If he wins the Supreme well and the other contenders run their race, then I'll be happy to see a super horse and look forward to him as presumably a novice chaser. From a betting POV, I'll dust myself down and look ahead to the remaining 27 races.
Pretty much exactly, to the minute. how I've played him and thought it all through as the season developed - and I gave birth to him.
Pretty much exactly, to the minute. how I've played him and thought it all through as the season developed - and I gave birth to him.
I’ve luckily done the rabs but have felt from day one he should be in the other race ...luckily for me they only had an any race and a supreme option so doubled down but I haven’t spent a day actually fancying him. However with you birthing him and Willie fathering him he can’t lose surely. If he wins I’m going to feel pretty guilty collecting same as last year when the whole family bizarrely told us he was going to win the bumper the day he came out of your womb.
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