2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[Carnage at Taunton]

Tolworth form, nice to see

[EnvoiAlien]

Very nice as I'm on the Tolworth 2nd at silly odds on BF with a few little ew punts with the books too.

[Quevega]

Tolworth form, nice to see

Would you not watch that race and see 3 horses all rated around the low 130's though ??
I know they are all likely to be 50's or higher though, and that's fair enough.
But I'd strongly suggest it makes the Tolworth form look what it looked like originally, below grade 1 level.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Would you not watch that race and see 3 horses all rated around the low 130's though ??
I know they are all likely to be 50's or higher though, and that's fair enough.
But I'd strongly suggest it makes the Tolworth form look what it looked like originally, below grade 1 level.

it’s not easy to judge exactly how good Tahmuras is in relation to the Supreme field, but it’s nice to see horses he’s beaten run well.
Not getting carried away Q.

[Brital]

I think Tahmuras is the most underrated horse in this race. Travelled all over them in the Tolworth.
imo only hit the last couple of fences cos they were going too slow.
im hopeful a stronger run race, which he’ll get in the supreme, will bring out the best in him.

thanks to Lobos I have him at nice prices, so I’m biased

[Zachx02]

I think Tahmuras is the most underrated horse in this race. Travelled all over them in the Tolworth.
imo only hit the last couple of fences cos they were going too slow.
im hopeful a stronger run race, which he’ll get in the supreme, will bring out the best in him.

thanks to Lobos I have him at nice prices, so I’m biased

I personally just cant have him at all, he beat a 131 rated horse by 3 lengths in 3rd and a 122 horse by 6 i think in 4th who just got beat again today

[willpaterson]

I personally just cant have him at all, he beat a 131 rated horse by 3 lengths in 3rd and a 122 horse by 6 i think in 4th who just got beat again today

I am with yourself on this one - I know ratings have their limitations, but on adjusted timeform ratings he has some 10 to 15 pounds to find against the best of the Irish and even a fair way behind the similar priced Diverge.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I am with yourself on this one - I know ratings have their limitations, but on adjusted timeform ratings he has some 10 to 15 pounds to find against the best of the Irish and even a fair way behind the similar priced Diverge.

Ratings are not concrete when it comes to nov hurdlers, right or wrong I always go on visual impressions, works out ok sometimes!!

[Kevloaf]

Ratings are not concrete when it comes to nov hurdlers, right or wrong I always go on visual impressions, works out ok sometimes!!

Like who?

No doubt there are examples by the way!

[Kevloaf]

Will Hill decided Facile Vega is now a 2/1 shot

[Exar Essay]

Will Hill decided Facile Vega is now a 2/1 shot

Pfffff that’s really poor IMO. You’re taking a huge leap of faith that Leopardstown was an explicable one off. I thought the 4/1 he was for a while was about right.

I see they’ve pushed out Marine Nationale to 4/1 and IET to 6/1 though at least.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Pfffff that’s really poor IMO. You’re taking a huge leap of faith that Leopardstown was an explicable one off. I thought the 4/1 he was for a while was about right.

I see they’ve pushed out Marine Nationale to 4/1 and IET to 6/1 though at least.

2/1 is perhaps getting a bit tight but, in my view, he's the best horse in the race and if he reproduces his run at Christmas he'll win.

I think he either wins or blow out completely, and have faith the Willie will have him ready to run a screamer in 9 days time.

It's weird because I was completely against him until he ran poorly at DRF. He was 4/6 going into that and I always felt he was shorter than he should be. Those that were backing him at short prices now can't have him, whereas i have had a decent go at 4/1 and 7/2. It's purely a price thing.

[Istabraq]

I think he either wins or blow out completely, and have faith the Willie will have him ready to run a screamer in 9 days time.

I agree, I'm look at backing him for the win and place laying...

[Carnage at Taunton]

Will Hill decided Facile Vega is now a 2/1 shot

Not on him, and won’t be by the looks of it.
Hes imo definitely one to take on, on the day I reckon

[Exar Essay]

2/1 is perhaps getting a bit tight but, in my view, he's the best horse in the race and if he reproduces his run at Christmas he'll win.

I think he either wins or blow out completely, and have faith the Willie will have him ready to run a screamer in 9 days time.

It's weird because I was completely against him until he ran poorly at DRF. He was 4/6 going into that and I always felt he was shorter than he should be. Those that were backing him at short prices now can't have him, whereas i have had a decent go at 4/1 and 7/2. It's purely a price thing.

I’m in the former camp. Not at 4/6, that was ridiculous. But down to evens I thought he was a reasonable foundation for multiples.

You’ve hit the nail on the head re him winning or blowing up. But I don’t think 2/1 is a fair price to find out. There are too many unknowns for me to take that price; is he over what caused the previous issue, will the issue occur again, if he got lit up by HD will that happen again. And that’s before we’ve factored in some decent opposition.

IET could be very good. He was clearly under instruction to give FV a lead at Christmas but fluffed his lines. Danny didn’t want to get near him at his hurdles after that (imagine bringing down Willie’s boon). IET then stayed on very well.

Also we don’t know how good HD might be if he gets round either. Decent enough maiden winner with good horses in behind; 2nd Jetara, 3rd Parmenion, 6th Diverge. Then falling at Christmas obviously. But we all know he has some engine.