2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[EnvoiAlien]

I topped up on him. Big chance IF he gets round and I'm very happy to take the risk.

TBF if they can get him jumping his engine & stamina will give him every chance,not ideal going there off a unseat but lets be honest,Slevin shouldn't be falling off of him there,another day and he doesnt.
Best of luck with him for march.

[Folski]

Anyone else think Marine National form took a hit this weekend Irish Point taken off his feet and Grangeclare West didn’t help the Lawlors form which as a line to MN through Champ Kiely.

Really like him though but I think he’s more a ballymore horse than supreme.

[Kevloaf]

Anyone else think Marine National form took a hit this weekend Irish Point taken off his feet and Grangeclare West didn’t help the Lawlors form which as a line to MN through Champ Kiely.

Really like him though but I think he’s more a ballymore horse than supreme.

Hmm, no I don't think so.

Irish Point I think can't be taken seriously and just needs throwing out as a formline ..... getting creative for a handicap more likely than him running to the same ability he did when MN beat him

and Grangeclare West just might not be very good....



Trainer is adament he's a Supreme horse .... has been from a long way out. I worry he's not got experience of running in a proper race - he'll need to be pretty special to cruise into the Supreme and pick up whoever has already gone for home.


Hope he does though, I've got a massive soft spot for him

[charlie]

Hmm, no I don't think so.

Irish Point I think can't be taken seriously and just needs throwing out as a formline ..... getting creative for a handicap more likely than him running to the same ability he did when MN beat him

and Grangeclare West just might not be very good....

Trainer is adament he's a Supreme horse .... has been from a long way out. I worry he's not got experience of running in a proper race - he'll need to be pretty special to cruise into the Supreme and pick up whoever has already gone for home.

Hope he does though, I've got a massive soft spot for him

MN feels like a default favourite in the absence of anything strong. If he were one of Willies he'd be down the pecking order, but because he's trained by Barry Connell he's more of an enigma, which may have inflated peoples perception on his actual ability. He didn't achieve anything of note in three runs pre Royal Bond, but how good was that form in the RB? Picked off Irish Point who wants further, beat Champ Kiely who beat himself having raced way too freely and AD who delivered far too late into the race. It was a likeable performance and he did well, but it was a bunched finish vs likeable types, nothing more IMO. So I'd question the form, then I'd throw in the same concern you have about experience. He's also never been to Cheltenham. Add to that difficulty in off the pace tactics and suddenly you have 4 fairly big question marks about a horse thats 3/1. Well done to those who've got the fancy prices but as short as 2/1 with all those question marks is a terrible price IMO. He could win the race though, wide open. I'd love to be on him at 25's like some of you out there.

[Carnage at Taunton]

MN feels like a default favourite in the absence of anything strong. If he were one of Willies he'd be down the pecking order, but because he's trained by Barry Connell he's more of an enigma, which may have inflated peoples perception on his actual ability. He didn't achieve anything of note in three runs pre Royal Bond, but how good was that form in the RB? Picked off Irish Point who wants further, beat Champ Kiely who beat himself having raced way too freely and AD who delivered far too late into the race. It was a likeable performance and he did well, but it was a bunched finish vs likeable types, nothing more IMO. So I'd question the form, then I'd throw in the same concern you have about experience. He's also never been to Cheltenham. Add to that difficulty in off the pace tactics and suddenly you have 4 fairly big question marks about a horse thats 3/1. Well done to those who've got the fancy prices but as short as 2/1 with all those question marks is a terrible price IMO. He could win the race though, wide open. I'd love to be on him at 25's like some of you out there.

I think that’s pretty much spot on.
But trainer said he’s going to win.
Is he always like that? Or should we take notice?
He said he wins the Ballymore too.

[Benjy23]

He's a terrible price at the moment and he won't even go off fav will he. Facile Vega almost certain to.

I'm fairly sure being trained by Barry Connell will ultimately make horses a bigger price than they should be rather than a shorter one though.

[Quevega]

The Royal Bond form is good form.
If you want to interpret it differently, crack on.

I agree he doesn't deserve to be favourite though.
And he could get beat in the supreme for sure.

[Kevloaf]

MN feels like a default favourite in the absence of anything strong. If he were one of Willies he'd be down the pecking order, but because he's trained by Barry Connell he's more of an enigma, which may have inflated peoples perception on his actual ability. He didn't achieve anything of note in three runs pre Royal Bond, but how good was that form in the RB? Picked off Irish Point who wants further, beat Champ Kiely who beat himself having raced way too freely and AD who delivered far too late into the race. It was a likeable performance and he did well, but it was a bunched finish vs likeable types, nothing more IMO. So I'd question the form, then I'd throw in the same concern you have about experience. He's also never been to Cheltenham. Add to that difficulty in off the pace tactics and suddenly you have 4 fairly big question marks about a horse thats 3/1. Well done to those who've got the fancy prices but as short as 2/1 with all those question marks is a terrible price IMO. He could win the race though, wide open. I'd love to be on him at 25's like some of you out there.

Yeah not disagreeing with the majority of that, I do have the fancy prices and wouldn't be surprised if he's not fav on the day either.

I just said I have a soft spot for him... and I'm seldom soft.

I wouldn't be so quick to slam the Royal Bond though...

[Irish Rugby]

I think Barry Connell is now more confident that his boutique training operation (his own words) has reached a level, after 4-5 years, to be able to compete at the top table. Believe he has a yard of just 25 horses.

Adding in the superlatives thrown at his young jockey, a cool head if ever there was one, it's quite an infections combination. Great to see another training operation now punching above it's weight.

That Racing TV interview on Sunday with Nick Luck at Leopardstown, explains all.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think Barry Connell is now more confident that his boutique training operation (his own words) has reached a level, after 4-5 years, to be able to compete at the top table. Believe he has a yard of just 25 horses.

Adding in the superlatives thrown at his young jockey, a cool head if ever there was one, it's quite an infections combination. Great to see another training operation now punching above it's weight.

That Racing TV interview on Sunday with Nick Luck at Leopardstown, explains all.

Well he's certainly confident!!

[Carnage at Taunton]

Much like the Ballymore, this race is a right puzzle for me now, after the weekend.....well it was before to be honest. I was hoping the weekend might help.
When i look at the betting i can see a few fancied ones possibly stepping up in trip.
When i look at the Ballymore i can see the opposite.
GW seems to be swaying towards the Bally after trainer comments, but ive seen that before!!
Think im now leaving this till final decs.

[charlie]

The Royal Bond form is good form.
If you want to interpret it differently, crack on.

I agree he doesn't deserve to be favourite though.
And he could get beat in the supreme for sure.

Hence my use of 'how good'

It was clearly good, buts its priced up as top quality form, which I think we all know flatters him.

Il Etait Temp is a much better bet at the current prices IMO.

[Quevega]

Hence my use of 'how good'

It was clearly good, buts its priced up as top quality form, which I think we all know flatters him.

Il Etait Temp is a much better bet at the current prices IMO.

apologies charlie, didn't read it well enough.
Obviously the interpretation you used was the one people would use to crab. I don't fully go along with that of course.

And yes I agree on prices.
Open race though now, although I don't agree with some pundits bringing the UK novices into play more.
Looks more like the Irish have even more players.
But you never can be too sure I suppose.

[Istabraq]

I doubt many Supreme winners have come through Exeter on their way to Festival success but Nemean Lion is entered in the same listed hurdle race as Lucia on Sunday, the chances of Kerry Lee training a Supreme winner are remote but there's no way this one should be the price he is.
3l behind Tahmuras in the Tolworth and was travelling as well as the winner before hitting 2 out and making a mess of the last, well worth watching the replay to see just how strongly he travelled.
I was hoovering the 999/1 on the machine and have some each way 100/1, every chance he doesn't go, just as much chance he come sup short if he does, but this is a mess of a race and looks right for an absolute boil over to me.
If anyone is as clueless as me in this now you could do worse than just take all the 500+ shots for a fiver for fun...

[Geegees]

Given the perceived lack of strong quality in the field then I am surprised there aren’t more willing to put a line through the FV run and still count him as the most likely winner.

Townsend clearly got it wrong and won’t be doing that again, FV been to Cheltenham, hurdles reasonably well and has beat IET previously although granted they could have also improved

Jumped on FV at 4/1 and expect him to be a lot shorter on the day. Do think he will probably be the horse in a lot of specials come the day