2023 Preview Evenings

[Irish Rugby]

Jane Mangan 'wins' at 53% which compared to all the others (is it a level playing field, probably not). Think about it though. You have one dart at each race. I'd be happy with anything in excess of 20%.

Looking at Mangan. She sensibly avoided for the most part, the handicaps. Plus she opted for State Man in the Pipe, who as we know went and demolished the County Hurdle field.

[Spectre]

Apologies Spectre I will this year

I was only joking Gilly. I can't imagine we are worthy of inclusion in such an illustrious list of pros.

I do think there's a good chance we'd beat the majority of them though!

It's interesting how poorly they all performed when you split out the handicaps. The successes are almost all in the graded races.

If anyone with good IT skills fancies splitting the handicaps out from the rest and posting the results of each I suspect it would make very interesting reading, and probably a better guide as to who to take notice of and for which races.

In addition to that, it would also be interesting to see how the value worked out by assuming sub 5/1 are win bets and 5/1+ are each way. Some of them may be tipping up good value that placed and aren't picked up in a simple winners table. In other words some may show as poor performers with their tips but the ROI based on each way bets may be greater than someone with a 40% result that was tipping short priced horses.

Of course people may not be interested in this at all, but I'd like to know who really performed, as opposed to those that tipped up favourites in the easier races.

[Spectre]

5 on the panel.. anyone wanna lay me all 5 to have their plain white bedrooms on display?

have a feeling it was Quevega who was displeased with LTRs plain bedrooms..

or at least sounds like something you’d say

Spectre could lend the young lads a few shades of purple to spice their bedrooms up!

My purple fez is the only thing I'm likely to become famous for.

When I see hoards of 20 somethings not wearing socks, but wearing purple fez's at the Festival I'll know I've made it.

[12dom89]

12dom89 That's a decent piece of work, thanks for posting.
Only thing that would make that better would be a ROI figure to a level stake, but overall it's great guide...

Not exactly sure i've done this correctly but does provide a good overview...

Had to ignore the fact the some people had multiple selections in each cell as it would be much harder to resolve!

Andrew mount is at the top mainly due to the selection of Chambard at 40s

Marie's Rock and Brazil for Ed Nicholson

Third wind at 25s for Steven Powell

Preview	Tips Made	Winners	% Correct	ROI Based on 1pt per tip
Andrew Mount	16	2	13%	28.25
Ed Nicholson	7	3	43%	24.73
Steven Powell	4	1	25%	22
Tony Keenan	20	5	25%	17.5
James Hill	11	3	27%	16.25
Matt Brocklebank	5	1	20%	14
Jess Stafford	24	4	17%	12.44
Jane Mangan	17	9	53%	10.05
Kate Tracey	13	5	38%	9.67
David Mullins	19	7	37%	9.25
Tom Segal	23	7	30%	4.37
Tony Mullins	13	6	46%	3.93
Jack Kennedy	6	3	50%	3.7
Paul Callaghan	10	4	40%	2.82
Richard Pugh	9	4	44%	2.8
Paddy Aspell	6	3	50%	1.43
Luke Harvey	12	5	42%	0.55
Andrew Thornton	9	3	33%	0.32
Frankie Foster	11	5	45%	0.12
Mick Fitzgerald	16	6	38%	-0.08
Ben Pauling	7	3	43%	-0.49
James Millman	23	8	35%	-0.57
Nick Luck	8	2	25%	-0.8
Graham Cunningham	5	1	20%	-1.5
Venetia Williams	5	2	40%	-1.7
Philip Enright	7	3	43%	-1.79
Ruby Walsh	22	7	32%	-1.95
Paul Nicholls	9	3	33%	-2.2
Danny Mullins	15	5	33%	-2.35
Stephen Harris	17	6	35%	-2.56
Daryl Carter	16	5	31%	-2.73
Dan Overall	19	7	37%	-3.06
Ross Brierly	7	2	29%	-3.07
Charlie Deutsch	5	1	20%	-3.27
Gordon Elliot	11	2	18%	-3.8
Ed Quigley	17	2	12%	-3.8
Ben Linfoot	4	0	0%	-4
Luke Elder	4	0	0%	-4
Simon Landale	4	0	0%	-4
David Jennings	25	9	36%	-4.08
AP McCoy	9	2	22%	-4.18
Mikey Fogarty	19	5	26%	-4.5
Leonna Mayor	5	0	0%	-5
Lydia Hislop	17	4	24%	-6.95
Davy Russell	11	2	18%	-7.07
Dean Ryan	21	6	29%	-7.12
Bryan Cooper	9	1	11%	-7.43
Gavin Lynch	28	7	25%	-7.97
Michael Deasy	12	2	17%	-8.07
Donn McClean	15	2	13%	-8.27
Matt Chapman	15	3	20%	-8.49
Diarmuid Nolan	21	5	24%	-8.5
Tom Collins	25	6	24%	-8.69
Jamie Codd	17	3	18%	-8.7
Kevin Blake	19	4	21%	-8.7
Pat Cooney	25	6	24%	-8.83
Paul Kealy	22	6	27%	-9.31
Tony Calvin	13	2	15%	-9.99
Matt Tombs	14	2	14%	-10.07
Sam Turner	13	1	8%	-10.5
Mark Howard	21	3	14%	-10.75
Gary O'Brien	24	5	21%	-11.2
Andy Holding	28	6	21%	-11.36
Frank Hickey	14	1	7%	-12.27
Rory Delargy	23	3	13%	-12.77
Joshua Stacey	27	6	22%	-13.28
Andrew Blair White	28	6	21%	-13.47
Barry Geraghty	19	3	16%	-14.26
Vincent Finegan	24	2	8%	-18.93
Ross Millar	25	1	4%	-22

[HesTheOne]

12dom89 very interesting!!

Some surprising results there

Almost 3 out of 4 fail to make a profit with their selections

[12dom89]

12dom89 very interesting!!

Some surprising results there

Almost 3 out of 4 fail to make a profit with their selections

I suppose thats the issue with preview evenings they are asked to make a selection on each race when they might not actually think its a decent bet!

[Spectre]

Interesting to see how low down a significant number of highly rated tipsters are on that list.

Only one in four turned a profit at all, and only one in ten above a ten point ROI.

I'd say it makes the perfect case for relying on your own judgement, and to avoid being influenced by tipsters and the Preview circuit.

[Spectre]

I suppose thats the issue with preview evenings they are asked to make a selection on each race when they might not actually think its a decent bet!

To be fair, only three on the list have tipped in twenty eight races.

[robith]

Jane Mangan 'wins' at 53% which compared to all the others (is it a level playing field, probably not). Think about it though. You have one dart at each race. I'd be happy with anything in excess of 20%.

Looking at Mangan. She sensibly avoided for the most part, the handicaps. Plus she opted for State Man in the Pipe, who as we know went and demolished the County Hurdle field.

She's a shrewd judge imo - I owe her massively for her effusive enthusiasm for Porlock Bay a couple of years ago

[Liammet]

Not exactly sure i've done this correctly but does provide a good overview...

Had to ignore the fact the some people had multiple selections in each cell as it would be much harder to resolve!

Andrew mount is at the top mainly due to the selection of Chambard at 40s

Marie's Rock and Brazil for Ed Nicholson

Third wind at 25s for Steven Powell

Preview	Tips Made	Winners	% Correct	ROI Based on 1pt per tip
Andrew Mount	16	2	13%	28.25
Ed Nicholson	7	3	43%	24.73
Steven Powell	4	1	25%	22
Tony Keenan	20	5	25%	17.5
James Hill	11	3	27%	16.25
Matt Brocklebank	5	1	20%	14
Jess Stafford	24	4	17%	12.44
Jane Mangan	17	9	53%	10.05
Kate Tracey	13	5	38%	9.67
David Mullins	19	7	37%	9.25
Tom Segal	23	7	30%	4.37
Tony Mullins	13	6	46%	3.93
Jack Kennedy	6	3	50%	3.7
Paul Callaghan	10	4	40%	2.82
Richard Pugh	9	4	44%	2.8
Paddy Aspell	6	3	50%	1.43
Luke Harvey	12	5	42%	0.55
Andrew Thornton	9	3	33%	0.32
Frankie Foster	11	5	45%	0.12
Mick Fitzgerald	16	6	38%	-0.08
Ben Pauling	7	3	43%	-0.49
James Millman	23	8	35%	-0.57
Nick Luck	8	2	25%	-0.8
Graham Cunningham	5	1	20%	-1.5
Venetia Williams	5	2	40%	-1.7
Philip Enright	7	3	43%	-1.79
Ruby Walsh	22	7	32%	-1.95
Paul Nicholls	9	3	33%	-2.2
Danny Mullins	15	5	33%	-2.35
Stephen Harris	17	6	35%	-2.56
Daryl Carter	16	5	31%	-2.73
Dan Overall	19	7	37%	-3.06
Ross Brierly	7	2	29%	-3.07
Charlie Deutsch	5	1	20%	-3.27
Gordon Elliot	11	2	18%	-3.8
Ed Quigley	17	2	12%	-3.8
Ben Linfoot	4	0	0%	-4
Luke Elder	4	0	0%	-4
Simon Landale	4	0	0%	-4
David Jennings	25	9	36%	-4.08
AP McCoy	9	2	22%	-4.18
Mikey Fogarty	19	5	26%	-4.5
Leonna Mayor	5	0	0%	-5
Lydia Hislop	17	4	24%	-6.95
Davy Russell	11	2	18%	-7.07
Dean Ryan	21	6	29%	-7.12
Bryan Cooper	9	1	11%	-7.43
Gavin Lynch	28	7	25%	-7.97
Michael Deasy	12	2	17%	-8.07
Donn McClean	15	2	13%	-8.27
Matt Chapman	15	3	20%	-8.49
Diarmuid Nolan	21	5	24%	-8.5
Tom Collins	25	6	24%	-8.69
Jamie Codd	17	3	18%	-8.7
Kevin Blake	19	4	21%	-8.7
Pat Cooney	25	6	24%	-8.83
Paul Kealy	22	6	27%	-9.31
Tony Calvin	13	2	15%	-9.99
Matt Tombs	14	2	14%	-10.07
Sam Turner	13	1	8%	-10.5
Mark Howard	21	3	14%	-10.75
Gary O'Brien	24	5	21%	-11.2
Andy Holding	28	6	21%	-11.36
Frank Hickey	14	1	7%	-12.27
Rory Delargy	23	3	13%	-12.77
Joshua Stacey	27	6	22%	-13.28
Andrew Blair White	28	6	21%	-13.47
Barry Geraghty	19	3	16%	-14.26
Vincent Finegan	24	2	8%	-18.93
Ross Millar	25	1	4%	-22

Interesting

Would prefer if it showed who was in profit instead of one point per selection

[Quevega]

My purple fez is the only thing I'm likely to become famous for.

When I see hoards of 20 somethings not wearing socks, but wearing purple fez's at the Festival I'll know I've made it.

If Nassalam wins.

Then for the 2024 festival I'd donate one hundred pounds towards Kevloaf producing some purple Fat Jockey Fez's.
Might have to be plant pots painted purple though !

Should be miles easier to spot than the badges.
And you'll know you've made it, when I'm wearing one.

[Istabraq]

12dom89
Brilliant effort that, many thanks...

ps - incredible how some have a 40-50% strike rate and still lose money...

[Quevega]

If Nassalam wins.

Then for the 2024 festival I'd donate one hundred pounds towards Kevloaf producing some purple Fat Jockey Fez's.
Might have to be plant pots painted purple though !

Should be miles easier to spot than the badges.
And you'll know you've made it, when I'm wearing one.

Forgot to add, that we should also have a ceremony for doctorwu if this happens, and we can superglue one to his head
Only if he's up for it though

[BigChaang]

If Nassalam wins.

Then for the 2024 festival I'd donate one hundred pounds towards Kevloaf producing some purple Fat Jockey Fez's.
Might have to be plant pots painted purple though !

Should be miles easier to spot than the badges.
And you'll know you've made it, when I'm wearing one.

I expect Kevloaf has a few old K.F.C Buckets kicking about , Bit of Sticky tape and purple glitter ......

[Quevega]

I expect Kevloaf has a few old K.F.C Buckets kicking about , Bit of Sticky tape and purple glitter ......

Perfect.
12 months to save them up, he should have plenty.