What can we expect from the Gordon Elliot stable this year?

[delsie777]

On a more general point, what sort of Festival will Gordon have this year? Doesn't seem to have quite so many high profile chances as in some years. The XCountry looks good but no real bumper star this time, short of Championship contenders and his stand out novice chaser Mister Potter has a shocking experience last year to overcome. With the British handicapper playing hardball, even his happy hunting ground might not offer so much?

[nortonscoin200]

What we can expect from Gordon basically depends on what Willie is likely to unleash and I’d say he’ll probably go to the Festival with the strongest team in history.
Reckon there’s probably a slightly greater than even-money chance Willie breaks last year’s record of 10 wins.
Right now Hendo looks likely to have more horses than Gordie going to Cheltenham with a leading chance - reckon Nick could pick up 4 or 5 if things go his way - with his likely par score being 3.
So where does that leave Gordon - picking up the pieces would be my take.
No doubt he’ll take the second biggest team numerically and hit the places several times but anything more than 3-4 winners would be a big achievement in my book.
I’d put his par score at 3 but a slightly less secure 3 than Hendo.
And I imagine Henry will be squeezed even more - I’d be surprised if he picks up more than 2 tops.
Then you’re left with about 8 races which will be shared around the remaining trainers. That is tough. They are really up against it.
But they don’t always help themselves. Surely Henry should have tested the water with Barry The Butcher in bumpers by now - unless he has an injury - bearing in mind no one has delivered a spectacular performance so far.
As for Gordie, he’ll have a favourite’s chance with Delta Work but then you’re straight into the realms of merely being in with a good shout with the likes of Favouri DC, Mighty Potter, Chemical Energy, Maxxum, Gerri Colombe , Better Days Ahead or something in the Pipe, Boodles or Kim Muir.
Four would be very decent for Gordie, I’d say while Willie could bag a dozen, a number that would be almost surreal.
It’s a sobering thought every time you make a bet that’s not a Mullins horse.
Sorry for the pessimism regarding Gordie but that how I see it.
And before anyone points it out, yes Conflated is in the GC mix but I wouldn’t put him in the top 3 most likely winners.

[JamieSensible]

I think Gordon will go better than last year. He's training his horses this year, so they peak at the right time of the season.

Delta Work would be a banker.
Mighty Potter looks a strong favourite if he takes to the track. He was awful in the Supreme last year.
Gerri Colombe is unbeaten and very versatile, so he would have to be respected wherever he turned up.
He also has 2 decent chances in the Mares Novice.

Handicaps
Minella Crooner could be a Kim Muir horse depending on his mark.
Three Card Brag or American Mike for the Pipe, again depending on marks.
Maxxum or Eric Bloodaxe for the Pertemps.
Commander of Fleet for a Coral Cup repeat?

being completely honest I would expect Gordon to have at least 4 winners this year.

[Ballybeen]

Below is two tweets from Michael Looby on Twitter which explains Mighty Potters run in the supreme

‘Went lame in the Supreme after hitting a hurdle hard early on’

‘Did the splits as well was lame for a few days after,came back very light too which meant it took a bit out of him but not surprising given he was a raw gangly horse,much stronger this year but puts his Punchestown performance after up a notch too to get back and win there.’

[charlie]

I think Gordon will go better than last year. He's training his horses this year, so they peak at the right time of the season.

Delta Work would be a banker.
Mighty Potter looks a strong favourite if he takes to the track. He was awful in the Supreme last year.
Gerri Colombe is unbeaten and very versatile, so he would have to be respected wherever he turned up.
He also has 2 decent chances in the Mares Novice.

Handicaps
Minella Crooner could be a Kim Muir horse depending on his mark.
Three Card Brag or American Mike for the Pipe, again depending on marks.
Maxxum or Eric Bloodaxe for the Pertemps.
Commander of Fleet for a Coral Cup repeat?

being completely honest I would expect Gordon to have at least 4 winners this year.

I think around 4 winners is very realistic. He has a good team this year. I would add Chemical Energy to your list. He ran to an RPR of 154 in a known NHC trial at Cheltenham and did it easily, looking like he'd love further. Yes GDM is a G1 winner with more experience, but if I had a choice of GDM at 6/4 or CE @ 9/1 there would be no choice, and he could very well be an Elliot winner.

[JamieSensible]

I think around 4 winners is very realistic. He has a good team this year. I would add Chemical Energy to your list. He ran to an RPR of 154 in a known NHC trial at Cheltenham and did it easily, looking like he'd love further. Yes GDM is a G1 winner with more experience, but if I had a choice of GDM at 6/4 or CE @ 9/1 there would be no choice, and he could very well be an Elliot winner.

I would agree with that, especially as the owner of GDM has Ramilles as well, I might have a saver double with Delta & Chemical Energy.

[Benjy23]

And Better Days Ahead in the bumper...

But I agree with the general consensus that'll it'll be another tough year for him. A few years back he was challenging, and beating Mullins, for the festival top trainer title but he's going to be a long way behind again here. Think nortonscoin200 is right in that Elliot v Hendo will be close on number of winners this year.

Expecting some more success in the handicaps though, and lessons learnt from last year.

[DenmanSacre]

Anything can happen at the festival.

We all have Willie miles clear, which he likely will be, but he could easily win only one of the novice hurdles, Triumph he has the best hand and one or two of the 4 novice chases. Add in 2 of the Mares Chase, Champion Chase and Gold Cup and hes on 4 to 6. He likely won't win the Stayers or Champion Hurdle. Mares novice doesn't appear likely. The Bumper is more competitive this year. He doesn't typically do that well in the handicap chases and the handicap hurdles are harder this year with the 4 race minimum for novices to overcome.

Plenty of chances for other trainers to take races of Willie this year.

If the races fall right Gordon could be looking at similar: he's got leading chances in the Cross Country, Turners and Pertemps, horses close to the top of the betting in the Albert Bartlett, Mares Novice, National Hunt Chase and Bumper, and he's always going to have chances in the handicaps.

I'd say Willie will be doing well to win 10 again this year - that was a monstrous performance on Friday last year to win 5 of the races. That naturally opens up more races for others to win and Elliott severely underperformed last year.

[Big Bucks]

Anything can happen at the festival.

We all have Willie miles clear, which he likely will be, but he could easily win only one of the novice hurdles, Triumph he has the best hand and one or two of the 4 novice chases. Add in 2 of the Mares Chase, Champion Chase and Gold Cup and hes on 4 to 6. He likely won't win the Stayers or Champion Hurdle. Mares novice doesn't appear likely. The Bumper is more competitive this year. He doesn't typically do that well in the handicap chases and the handicap hurdles are harder this year with the 4 race minimum for novices to overcome.

Plenty of chances for other trainers to take races of Willie this year.

If the races fall right Gordon could be looking at similar: he's got leading chances in the Cross Country, Turners and Pertemps, horses close to the top of the betting in the Albert Bartlett, Mares Novice, National Hunt Chase and Bumper, and he's always going to have chances in the handicaps.

I'd say Willie will be doing well to win 10 again this year - that was a monstrous performance on Friday last year to win 5 of the races. That naturally opens up more races for others to win and Elliott severely underperformed last year.

Yep pretty much similar to myself. I noticed it's 2/1 for 10 or more winners, so was trying to work out if value or not. Has an unreal hand in the novice chase division, potentially a decent Novice hurdle crew, then some stand out favs as you mentioned. If going to be getting the 10 he needs to be picking up a few wins in handicaps imo though.

[Kevloaf]

Yep pretty much similar to myself. I noticed it's 2/1 for 10 or more winners, so was trying to work out if value or not. Has an unreal hand in the novice chase division, potentially a decent Novice hurdle crew, then some stand out favs as you mentioned. If going to be getting the 10 he needs to be picking up a few wins in handicaps imo though.

It's a bit too short to really be confident about having a worthwhile bet at...

It's not like he's only just started dominating either, yet it took 5 in a day to hit 10... granted unlucky with GDC but that's moot really...

I wouldn't expect 10 again, and the odds reflect that, so you'd need to be uber confident - and personally, 2/1 when you could just back his favs on their own wouldn't tempt me

[Kevloaf]

Gordon - with the lack of 'obvious' top notchers bar the few mentioned.... well, Delta Work, I think he'll revert to what got him to where he was, where he was lethal in the handicaps... I sense a massive year, proving a point that he's still the bollocks.

I imagine in every graded race I'll have backed a Mullins horse, and every handicap an Elliott horse.


Revelutionary.

[robith]

I think around 4 winners is very realistic. He has a good team this year. I would add Chemical Energy to your list. He ran to an RPR of 154 in a known NHC trial at Cheltenham and did it easily, looking like he'd love further. Yes GDM is a G1 winner with more experience, but if I had a choice of GDM at 6/4 or CE @ 9/1 there would be no choice, and he could very well be an Elliot winner.

Chemical Energy is a bit of a slept on horse imo - the 9/1 is ending up in a lot of doubles and trebles for me

[Quevega]

Gordon - with the lack of 'obvious' top notchers bar the few mentioned.... well, Delta Work, I think he'll revert to what got him to where he was, where he was lethal in the handicaps... I sense a massive year, proving a point that he's still the bollocks.

I imagine in every graded race I'll have backed a Mullins horse, and every handicap an Elliott horse.


Revelutionary.

It's like dot to dot with stabilisers and armbands.

[Lobos]

Chemical Energy is a bit of a slept on horse imo - the 9/1 is ending up in a lot of doubles and trebles for me

Still can't forget that Gordon said he'd backed him at 66's for the NHC. Not going to be for peanuts either and not just going to be just him at the stable that's had it on. He then puts him away for 5 months. If that's not a plot I don't know what is !!!
Can just envisage the post race winning interview now when he reveals what they've won on him.
Massive tick in the box !

[Exar Essay]

Still can't forget that Gordon said he'd backed him at 66's for the NHC. Not going to be for peanuts either and not just going to be just him at the stable that's had it on. He then puts him away for 5 months. If that's not a plot I don't know what is !!!
Can just envisage the post race winning interview now when he reveals what they've won on him.
Massive tick in the box !

Completely agree. The owners love a bet too. It was their having bet Mighty Potter in the Supreme early doors that stopped Gordon stepping him up to the Ballymore last year. So the money is certainly down!