Nap, Lay and E/W

[FinalFurlong91]

One rule, you can’t wimp out and have constitution hill as your nap unless it’s in a double

Nap
Delta Work 7/4 Cross country
Most likely winner after CH imo

Lay
Epatante in the mares hurdle

Don’t think she will stay strongly enough, won a slowly run race at Aintree that became a sprint. Got outstayed at punchestown in a stronger run race by Marie’s rock, who looks to have improved again. May have Brandy love and honeysuckle to beat too.

E/W
Flooring porter 7/1 stayers
2x champ being trained with one race in mind in a weak division. Can’t see him not being bang there.


Wimped out a little with the last one, but struggled to find any big priced ones I actually thought had a chance of winning not just placing.

[Zachx02]

NAP: Allegorie De Vassy Mares Chase - Piss poor division and if that RPR is correct you may as well give it her now

Lay: Allaho Ryanair - most likely going to be turning up on seasonal debut as is known to need a run to be at his best, but a loss here will maybe give us better odds on him at punchestown

E/W: Chemical Energy NHC - with GDM not even certain to turn up here and gordon keeping this lad locked up and him being named checked, can't see a better bet

[FinalFurlong91]

NAP: Allegorie De Vassy Mares Chase - Piss poor division and if that RPR is correct you may as well give it her now

Lay: Allaho Ryanair - most likely going to be turning up on seasonal debut as is known to need a run to be at his best, but a loss here will maybe give us better odds on him at punchestown

E/W: Chemical Energy NHC - with GDM not even certain to turn up here and gordon keeping this lad locked up and him being named checked, can't see a better bet

Allaho vs galopin at punchestown

Race of the season potentially

[Kevloaf]

Nap - Constitution Hill with Galopin Des Champs NRNB in The Ryanair

Lay - Allegorie De Vassy - she has had 1 chase run, fluffed two fences, the last two, and people are now talking about her like she's going to be a future Gold Cup winner... poor division but can you trust any mare that isn't Quevega? She's no Vroum Vroum Mag yet.... she wouldn't have won the Mares Chase, and the Ryanair, and the Mares Hurdle, and Stayers Hurdle etc

Each Way - Appreciate It NRNB in either Arkle or Turners, as there are not 3 novice chasers better than him in training, let alone 3 that'll line up against him. Bet to nothing

[Quevega]

NAP - Maries Rock. - most under rated horse in training.

LAY - Gaillard du mesnil - exposed as a mid 150's animal, and something is likely to be on the way up and may beat him (most obvious winner but the price is too short)

EW - The Real Whacker - RSA - Looks a wide open race and he will make it a test for a lot of these horses whom might not have had many runs, or are prone to scruffy jumping.

[opatcho]

Nap: Allegorie De Vassy in any race

Lay: Mighty Potter (Turners), has a decent chance... but I can see doing something stupid - falling or running out

E/W: Meet And Greet (Stayers), currently 33/1. unexposed... finished behind The Nice Guy and Minella Cocooner at Punch. Likely raced, was only his second attempt over 3 miles over xmas.

[ComplyOrDie]

NAP - James Du Berlais - I thought he was very good on chase debut and achieved a TS figure (122) beyond what Galopin Des Champs achieved (114) in the same race last season, and I think his RPR is going to be pretty good too, expecting high 150's at least, possibly a 160.

Lay - Lossiemouth - She's done absolutely nothing wrong, but I don't think the Triumph Hurdle market is done with yet. Bo Zenith still to come out and I'm convinced Gala Marceau can get a lot closer, possibly finish ahead of Lossiemouth in a more strongly run race and without being so keen.

E/W - Captain Morgs (Pertemps) - He qualified without winning the qualifier, then run and demolished a field over c&d next time out on his first try over 3m. I think there's plenty of improvement left in him at the trip and he'll go close in the race. No bias whatsoever because I'm on at 60's and 50's

[FinalFurlong91]

NAP - Maries Rock. - most under rated horse in training.

LAY - Gaillard du mesnil - exposed as a mid 150's animal, and something is likely to be on the way up and may beat him (most obvious winner but the price is too short)

EW - The Real Whacker - RSA - Looks a wide open race and he will make it a test for a lot of these horses whom might not have had many runs, or are prone to scruffy jumping.

Agree on Marie's rock

Liked her anyway, 8/1 on the reigning champ was one of the better value bets and one of the first I had

But she blew me away on the weekend, to do that first run carrying a penalty

think she'd even give honeysuckle a race if she turns up (unlikely imo) given the relative trajectories the two are on

[Ice]

NAP - Maries Rock. - most under rated horse in training.

LAY - Gaillard du mesnil - exposed as a mid 150's animal, and something is likely to be on the way up and may beat him (most obvious winner but the price is too short)

EW - The Real Whacker - RSA - Looks a wide open race and he will make it a test for a lot of these horses whom might not have had many runs, or are prone to scruffy jumping.

I could very easily have gone with the same three.

[Liammet]

Nap- Galopin des Champs, just looks unbeatable,No doubts about him staying personally,Gold Cup

Lay- Hermes Allen, Hammering English horses won’t stack up in the Ballymore,Reminded me of Metier in the Tolworth,won’t even be fav after Sunday ,Ballymore

EW - Indigo Breeze,looks mapped for this,form of last two runs stacking up really well,Kim Muir

[riccirich]

Nap - Gerri Colombe (banc) - going for something with a bit of juice in the price, I really like him, jumps very well and winning over shorter distances in good fashion despite being thought of as a thorough stayer, only worry is how truly important soft ground is to him.

lay - facile Vega (supreme) have not been anywhere near as impressed as I should be to justify his odds, I think he’s all hype tbh, bumper form has not really worked out at all, I think if you closed your ears and ignored the superlatives from Mullins and just went by your eyes then he wasn’t very impressive at all lto.

ew - Irish point (supreme) don’t really understand the price discrepancy with marine Nationale, mn made a mess of the last sure and is lightly raced, but so is Irish point, connections on record as saying he is light framed and unfurnished and will improve in time, and there wasn’t a cent for him in the betting, I think he has huge improvement in him.

[Istabraq]

Nap - Vaucelet. Constitution Hill too obvious and too short so went with the best Hunter in the division.

Lay - Jonbon, still not sold and Mullins will have multiple darts to throw at him.

EW - Third Time Lucky (G Annual), I’m on at 25/1 and 20/1 and there was some 33/1 a few weeks ago, 16/1 best now but still value for a horse with multiple G2 wins to his name, got closer to Edwardstone than most last season and for me has been trained for a Spring handicap all season.

[Appreciate It]

Nap: Galopin Des Champs. His performances last season were breathtaking and with evidence that they've taught him to settle, I cannot see him getting beaten.

Lay: Allaho. Hope im wrong because it would be great to watch him win again. However, impossible to be backing him at less than 2/1 when there is such a doubt over his participation.

E/W: Stattler. A narrow second to last year's gold runner up, whilst giving him 8lbs has been massively under appreciated by the market. He'll have to go some to beat GDC but I think he's the second best in the race and 16/1 is far too big.

[jrjr]

Nap - Energumene. Will be a small field and expect Blue Lord to go to the Ryanair, Can't see Greaneteen/Nube Negra being up to it so it's basically a match with Edwardstone and I think Energumene will be a cut above. Been there, done it, will do it again.

Lay - Thyme Hill. Amazed he is favourite for the BANC with some firms. Can't see his jumping holding up when faced with the best of the Irish. Wouldn't back him with stolen money.

EW - The 33/1 still being offered by PP for Did I Ask You That. The sheer bravado of the way Patrick rode him turning for home at Xmas sits in my memory. I think the stable really like him (that Leopardstown race entry) and he will improve a huge amount next time out. Can see him going off single figures early evening on the Wednesday.

[DenmanSacre]

Nap - Inthepocket Ballymore. 12/1 or higher on the exchange.

Travels a dream and a turn of foot. Just needs something to drag him to the final hurdle.

Lay - Lossiemouth at the prices.

Won 3 slowly run races that she's won in a sprint. She just may be vulnerable to a strong pace but she could also thrive from it. I just can't have a 6/4 favourite for the Triumph 10 weeks before the race.

E/w - Arctic Bresil Supreme / Hiddenvalley Lake AB double 186/1 with Sky. 168/1 elsewhere.
Henry's going to have a big week. If you really like FV, Arctic Bresil is an each way price in the w/o market. Yard apparently think an awful lot of him and I liked his debut.

Hiddenvalley Lake dominated his last race and I can't wait to see him out again. I could put him as the Nap and Inthepocket here.

Add Inthepocket and it's 2430/1.