2024 Cheltenham - the odds on offer.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Twitter will be crying for justice refunds if he wins the Irish National.

The price is a shocker. He isn't of the same calibre as GDM on what we have seen so far and yet is almost half the price of what was available on GDM after the Irish National.

The other thing worth mentioning. No horse is getting pushed out when a horse like this is cut. The prices just keeps contracting over time so punters aren't getting better odds on any of the other runners.

[Benjy23]

Aye, completely agree the Irish National run is the biggest issue with the price. There's a pretty small window of him running well enough to not look like a shite fav in the NHC but also not running well enough to actually win the Irish National.

Not being the same calibre as GDM is a bit much mind. He finished a length behind him this season when they met, despite being much less experienced. He's not far below him on OR at this stage of his career like. 7lb on RPRs I think, which would give him a bit to find to be fair. But he's not miles off as a first season novice chaser (this bit is key )

[robith]

My thoughts on IAM's price and ante post in general

[darlojim]

Does make me think though, I'm not sure how much 'fun' is left ante post, after trying to get my head around this 'market move' Having to be switched on 365 days of the year because people are making cases like this (which to be honest is an easy one to ignore) but it's a lot of effort isn't it, sifting and wading through.

This is a big one for me atm.. Having to be on the ball all year round now really does feel it is taking its toll slightly, like my brain has been running marathons non stop, really is mentally fatiguing.

In the past it's felt like the flat season (May-Sept) was a really chilled cooling off period, but now that seems like if you take that time off, plenty of info/prices and opportunities will be missed.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Aye, completely agree the Irish National run is the biggest issue with the price. There's a pretty small window of him running well enough to not look like a shite fav in the NHC but also not running well enough to actually win the Irish National.

Not being the same calibre as GDM is a bit much mind. He finished a length behind him this season when they met, despite being much less experienced. He's not far below him on OR at this stage of his career like. 7lb on RPRs I think, which would give him a bit to find to be fair. But he's not miles off as a first season novice chaser (this bit is key )

GDM finished 2nd in a Ballymore, IAM was 4th and beaten a fair way

GDM was a grade 1 winning hurdler, rated 151. IAM was rated 134.

GDM was beaten 4 1/4 length in the RSA, whereas IAM was beaten by 10+ lengths.

On official chase ratings, there isn't a heap between them, I'll give you that, but I don't think they are of equal ability.

[Kautostar]

This is a big one for me atm.. Having to be on the ball all year round now really does feel it is taking its toll slightly, like my brain has been running marathons non stop, really is mentally fatiguing.

In the past it's felt like the flat season (May-Sept) was a really chilled cooling off period, but now that seems like if you take that time off, plenty of info/prices and opportunities will be missed.

Yeah it’s become a full 12 month project that never ends. You can’t afford to miss a beat by taking the summer off like you could have done 3 or 4 years ago.

[Exar Essay]

I still like to think May-September is down time. I like to keep my eye in a little, but found that after Punchestown last year, nothing really happened until late October (Down Royal and Stable Tours). Willie didn't even bother to tell us that Redemption Day picked up a significant injury during the race at Punchestown. James's Gate likewise. Even though the Supreme winner in waiting ran his debut over the summer, no one had any clue really at the time and 25/1 was available before the Royal Bond. I suppose there was a bit of interest around Champ Kiely, but again, it was hardly season defining stuff.

[HesTheOne]

What price we expecting M. West to be later this afternoon should he win this bumper impressively?

probably touch 16s if there’s enough rockets and flames thrown around on Twitter

[Benjy23]

GDM finished 2nd in a Ballymore, IAM was 4th and beaten a fair way

GDM was a grade 1 winning hurdler, rated 151. IAM was rated 134.

GDM was beaten 4 1/4 length in the RSA, whereas IAM was beaten by 10+ lengths.

On official chase ratings, there isn't a heap between them, I'll give you that, but I don't think they are of equal ability.

Agree over hurdles. That's why I added the brackets. GDM was clearly much better, although IAM was with Henderson at the time. Not sure what my point is there.

Think we're agreed there's not much between them first season novice chasing (both with Mullins). And it seems a pretty early targeted plan from Mullins to go down the second season novice route with IAM. So I assume Mullins thinks he's capable of relatively similar to GDM.

I also think GDM is overrated to be honest, which is a concern. Most of us on here had the 16/1 antepost about him so probably like to see him as a good winner but he scraped home with the benefit of a faller. So I do think there's every chance one turns up for the NHC next year that turns out to be better than IAM (and GDM).

[darlojim]

The full sister to Facile Vega is now named as Aurora Vega, expected out very soon.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Agree over hurdles. That's why I added the brackets. GDM was clearly much better, although IAM was with Henderson at the time. Not sure what my point is there.

Think we're agreed there's not much between them first season novice chasing (both with Mullins). And it seems a pretty early targeted plan from Mullins to go down the second season novice route with IAM. So I assume Mullins thinks he's capable of relatively similar to GDM.

I also think GDM is overrated to be honest, which is a concern. Most of us on here had the 16/1 antepost about him so probably like to see him as a good winner but he scraped home with the benefit of a faller. So I do think there's every chance one turns up for the NHC next year that turns out to be better than IAM (and GDM).

It definitely feels like we got away with one when Mahler Mission tipped up 2 out.

[Kautostar]

It definitely feels like we got away with one when Mahler Mission tipped up 2 out.

Thought he was beat myself. Looked a tired fall, he could barely lift a leg to jump the fence. Think he would have finished third if he hadn’t fallen.

[FinalFurlong91]

GDM finished 2nd in a Ballymore, IAM was 4th and beaten a fair way

GDM was a grade 1 winning hurdler, rated 151. IAM was rated 134.

GDM was beaten 4 1/4 length in the RSA, whereas IAM was beaten by 10+ lengths.

On official chase ratings, there isn't a heap between them, I'll give you that, but I don't think they are of equal ability.

I'd definitely agree, I am maximus has only won a bumper and maiden hurdle

And the RSA gdm ran in was much better than the one I am maximus ran in

He's also never really struck me as a 3m6f horse

[Lobos]

He's simply not good enough. I just don't know how anyone can put him up for a race at the festival. I don't believe many have backed him at all either. Bookies just trying it on and attracting the sheep who just follow Favs.

[Zachx02]

He's simply not good enough. I just don't know how anyone can put him up for a race at the festival. I don't believe many have backed him at all either. Bookies just trying it on and attracting the sheep who just follow Favs.

Wouldn't be backing him with my own money, I threw a free bet on him when he was 25s due to the 2nd season chaser profile but other than that I have no interest at all, the 2 runners up in the albert bartlett look 2 nice types for it