2024 Cheltenham - the odds on offer.

[Exar Essay]

FYI - Hills are being very slow to adjust prices following races. Managed to snare Banbridge at 25/1 post race and saw Zenta's price held for a while after too.

[Big Bucks]

FYI - Hills are being very slow to adjust prices following races. Managed to snare Banbridge at 25/1 post race and saw Zenta's price held for a while after too.

Paddy sleeping with Banbridge but switched on for Zenta. Sky suspended all horses in running!

[Craigy14]

I'm very much starting to think that el fabiolo apart this isn't a very strong bunch of novice chasers at all

And it wouldn't overly surprise me if el fabiolos career takes a similar path to footpads

El Fab reminds me of Energumene, just looks a machine over 2m as opposed to a speedy sort.

Not saying he’s slow of course but just his style seems very similar to energumene, although the main difference being he doesn’t need to lead.

[Exar Essay]

Paddy Power have pushed Saint Roi out to 50/1 for the Ryanair. I think that's very generous. Others have cut him slightly to 25/1 which seems about right. He's run 157 RPR today which puts him in the frame. Appreciate there is limited upside as an 8yo rising 9, but I think the 50's is very generous.

Banbridge at 16/1 seems about right, but you'd have to be concerned that he doesn't turn up on anything going which doesn't start 'Good'.

[Eggs]

…Dysart Dynos as low as 6-1 MNH. 10-1 best price, well done Istabraq for highlighting the 25-1.

[Hurricane fly]

Paddy Power have pushed Saint Roi out to 50/1 for the Ryanair. I think that's very generous. Others have cut him slightly to 25/1 which seems about right. He's run 157 RPR today which puts him in the frame. Appreciate there is limited upside as an 8yo rising 9, but I think the 50's is very generous.

I think Saint Roi is what I deem to be a "Grade 2" horse. If targeted he could pick up a decent early or end of season pot and dominate some of those small field Grade 2/3 races Ireland seem to have but when it comes to the big dances he is ridden for a place and that's his limit

[Eggs]

….interesting that PP are a long way the biggest IEP Arkle (10-1), yet shortest IEP Champion Hurdle (10/3). They seem to have a firm opinion of where he’s heading.

[darlojim]

….interesting that PP are a long way the biggest IEP Arkle (10-1), yet shortest IEP Champion Hurdle (10/3). They seem to have a firm opinion of where he’s heading.

Over the past few days, my mind has changed as to where Con Hill will go next season, and I now feel that he may stay hurdling. The way Hendo spoke to Lydia on RTV extra I just got that impression from the way he was talking. He was saying that staying hurdling wasn't 'the boring option' and that there are some brilliant hurdle races to be won throughout the season. I've invested quite a bit in related doubles (Con hill Arkle with others for champ hdle etc.) but I now may go the other way with Con hill for the Champ hdle with horses for the Arkle and Turners.

There are a couple of scenarios if that were the case..

* I think Barry Connell would 100% send Marine to the Arkle (as he said at Cheltenham, prior to his 'all options are open' comment. In my mind, this meant that he would look at where Con Hill was going before committing fully)

* Would Willie be happy to have state man in the Champ Hdle again? Along with a year older Vauban (likely still short of being good enough) He has said a number of times that the way State Man hurdles is difficult to find so would likely mean he ain't going chasing anytime soon with the great irish G1 hurdles to be won throughout the season.

*Would Willie throw another dart at the hurdling route with Impaire Et Passe if Con hill was to stay hurdling? I think this would be highly unlikely as:
- they've always referred to him as a big scopey horse
- David Casey had no doubt in his mind that 2 and half was his optimum trip
- Willie's usual MO is to go for the easiest/most winnable race - This means that chasing would have to strongly come into the reckoning. There is nothing in the 2m4 division that I could see troubling IEP if he went that route, providing he takes to fences.

As Eggs has pointed out, IEP is a standout for the Arkle with PP, but as we know, market moves from PP/BF can unexpectedly sway potential routes and I wouldn't fully rule out the potential that IEP could go that way, we know the Munir/Souede combo love that 2m division.


Ohhhh and one more point which I've mentioned previously.. After Nick Rocketts win at the Fairyhouse festival, he said IF he was to go to Punchestown aswell, he would likely go up to 3m to avoid Impaire Et Passe.

Now if I were in Willies mind and if I thought that Impaire could be a champion hurdle horse next season, I would be putting him in the 2 miler at punchestown against Marine Nationale to see if he has the credentials against the best 2 miler currently in Ireland to warrant going that route next season.


Just a summer to dwell over it I assume!

[Odin]

….interesting that PP are a long way the biggest IEP Arkle (10-1), yet shortest IEP Champion Hurdle (10/3). They seem to have a firm opinion of where he’s heading.

On a related note, I noticed that Unibet have taken positions on two of Nicky's better horses:

Stand out 7/4 Champion Hurdle for Constitution, joint shortest 6/4 he goes Arkle
Second longest 10/1 Champion Chase for Jonbon, shortest 9/2 he goes Ryanair

Would love to know if either bookie is giving prices based on a steer they've had. Really hope Unibet are right for my betting plans...

[Istabraq]

* I think Barry Connell would 100% send Marine to the Arkle (as he said at Cheltenham, prior to his 'all options are open' comment. In my mind, this meant that he would look at where Con Hill was going before committing fully)

You believe Barry Connell will look to avoid Constitution Hill and run Marine Nationale wherever CH doesn't go ?
I can see your thinking but everything I've seen and read about the Supreme winner suggests they think he is very special, and as you say his form just keeps getting boosted, but I'd be convinced they will plot their own route based on what suits MN the best, I don't think they're scared of CH, he's probably not even in their thinking.

I know RPRs are a contentious issue for many in here but the 158 MN was given now looks incredibly low and could well get a revisit.
Inthepocket was give 150 in the Supreme, he then wins an Aintree G1 comfortably with Rachel having no whip (regardless of our views on whether this assists their performance) and is given 148.
Luccia's Exeter performance of 142 is 4lb better than her run on Friday according to new ratings.
I'd love a Saxon Warrior or something with far greater knowledge on RPRs than me to convince me the 158 for MN was right....

[darlojim]

You believe Barry Connell will look to avoid Constitution Hill and run Marine Nationale wherever CH doesn't go ?
I can see your thinking but everything I've seen and read about the Supreme winner suggests they think he is very special, and as you say his form just keeps getting boosted, but I'd be convinced they will plot their own route based on what suits MN the best, I don't think they're scared of CH, he's probably not even in their thinking.

For me Ista, it went from Barry Connell calling him the 2024 Arkle winner to then 'all options are open' with regards to where they may target him next year. The only reason I see why he would now be open is due to Constitution Hill :/

Personally I've not given up hope that Facile Vega could turn the form around at Punchestown, providing Marine Nationale turns up which isn't guaranteed as they're going to have a close look at the ground and weather over the coming week.

[Odin]

Istabraq, I'm no Sax, but I'll have a go at explaining...

I think they've rated the Supreme about right. I personally would have added a couple of lbs for the ease with which Marine won, taking him to 160-161 but looking at the form of the race, they've basically said that Facile and IET ran to their December run ratings, which isn't implausible to me given the distances between them were fairly similar and IET jumped poorly like Xmas rather than well like the DRF. The race rating gives Diverge a 10lb improvement from the maiden hurdle (how much further can you realistically go?) and even gave Inthepocket a PB by a couple of lbs, which feels justified given the market support on the day.

In terms of the Aintree race, Strong Leader got 6 lengths closer to Inthepocket than at Cheltenham so that has to mark that race down slightly. Like you (from what I can tell from your post), I was unbelievably impressed with how the winner travelled through the race and would likely add a couple of lbs to his rating on that basis, but the race as a whole seems about right to me. If anything I'd argue it has been rated too highly given it has Pembroke running to within 1lb of his best and Hansard on a 20lb PB!

For me the RPRs only show what has been achieved, not what could have been achieved if fully ridden out etc and I always try to allow for a bit in that regard, which is obviously subjective and could explain the discrepancy you have with the ratings given.

[Odin]

For me Ista, it went from Barry Connell calling him the 2024 Arkle winner to then 'all options are open' with regards to where they may target him next year. The only reason I see why he would now be open is due to Constitution Hill :/

I also picked up on this and have been betting accordingly. It makes complete sense to avoid Constitution next year if it means they can win a Champion Hurdle and the way the form has worked out suggests they really could

[Exar Essay]

Istabraq Completely agree re Supreme RPRs. I said in the aftermath that 158 was too low. Couldn’t believe it wasn’t in the low 160s. Even more so now. Also, the recent supreme form boosts make it likely that Facile Vega is still a very good horse.

Inthepocket just upgraded to 150 for his Aintree, but still. Strong Leader rated just 3lbs higher (146) despite him having a much better run in second at Aintree.

[Istabraq]

Odin
Good post that, solid argument.
I guess my biggest issue is that good novices progress with each run, more experience helps, so if you (or anyone) thinks those behind Marine Nationale in the Supreme have ‘only’ run to their DRF marks then wouldn’t that suggest they disappointed at Cheltenham?

I can see the argument, and I understand your points, I guess what it comes down to my personal opinion on Marine National’s ability.
Always good to get a different perspective though….