2024 Cheltenham - the odds on offer.

[Rooster Booster]

….pretty much defines ante-post. The further out you are the greater the risk and the greater the reward. The risk is off-set by small stake requirement, not forgetting that doing roll-ups at lower prices carries risk of the first leg not winning.

Ante-post, no right or wrong just different approaches.

Completely agree

one persons lazy is another persons efficiency
one persons safe is another persons dull
one persons risk is another persons adrenalin
one persons logic is another persons restriction

Sometimes these offers are good, sometimes they are not ,sometimes you strike lucky, sometimes you regret not doing them and sometimes the opposite. For some they fit in perfectly with their lifestyle and budget for others there are always better alternatives. All the arguments have been provided now repeatedly. I agree with eggs there is no right and wrong as a whole just right and wrong for an individual and the best person to judge that has to be the person themself as they are the only ones armed with all the relevant personal information.

[robith]

I can see why people like these bets but Jesus you’d do well for a horse to turn up ‘23 sound, win and then carry on another campaign of staying sound in ‘24 and winning again..

The array of variables at play you’d want triple figure odds for all that to occur, obviously that’s not a realistic offer but personally I think these are terrible value.

Hindsight is a virtue for those who carry these long term slips - but I couldn’t sign up myself for any of these.

Anyone else on same page or am I being a pessimistic grinch?

If so strength the injection mr bank man still I get stuck into these lol

I wouldn't be doing loads of them tbh, but for a couple of points can be a nice tactical boost if you stay selective

[archie]

Absolutely not knocking the messenger for these or the 'win today and at the Festival' odds but, at 74, I'll be happy to last long enough to see the races run and having a big pay-out dependent on the result might just do for me.

[Eggs]

Absolutely not knocking the messenger for these or the 'win today and at the Festival' odds but, at 74, I'll be happy to last long enough to see the races run and having a big pay-out dependent on the result might just do for me.

…ha, ha, it’s certainly a consideration for any of us in the OAP category backing this far out, Archie.

[Eggs]

….An Tobar AB 33-1 with PP.

[Zachx02]

….An Tobar AB 33-1 with PP.

Would have been nice if it was possible to put this in a small double with the BTB ballymore one

[Eggs]

Would have been nice if it was possible to put this in a small double with the BTB ballymore one

….if An Tobar is as good as suggested, then maybe the AB is least likely of the novice hurdles.

[Winging The Last]

….if An Tobar is as good as suggested, then maybe the AB is least likely of the novice hurdles.

I think currently he is more likely to go down the AB route next season. Henry said at the start of the season he was more of a stayer from what they'd seen so far, and with Barry most likely to go to the Ballymore with is owners it would make sense for HDB to split them up. HDB doesn't mid sending a horse to the race (Minella Indo prime example) and also trainer and owner look like they could have you of the favourites in the race this year with Hiddenvalley Lake. There for I've taken as much of that of PP and BF as I can at a decent 33s

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think currently he is more likely to go down the AB route next season. Henry said at the start of the season he was more of a stayer from what they'd seen so far, and with Barry most likely to go to the Ballymore with is owners it would make sense for HDB to split them up. HDB doesn't mid sending a horse to the race (Minella Indo prime example) and also trainer and owner look like they could have you of the favourites in the race this year with Hiddenvalley Lake. There for I've taken as much of that of PP and BF as I can at a decent 33s

What was the injury that ruled him out this season?

There's a chance he'll be available at 33s once the 2024 AB market is formed, and by then we'll hopefully have an update on his wellbeing.

[DenmanSacre]

I think currently he is more likely to go down the AB route next season. Henry said at the start of the season he was more of a stayer from what they'd seen so far, and with Barry most likely to go to the Ballymore with is owners it would make sense for HDB to split them up. HDB doesn't mid sending a horse to the race (Minella Indo prime example) and also trainer and owner look like they could have you of the favourites in the race this year with Hiddenvalley Lake. There for I've taken as much of that of PP and BF as I can at a decent 33s

You are taking quite a small price considering:

1) Season ending injury - will he be the same horse?
2) Will they waste a season novice hurdling if they get him back into top shape? He will be 7 next festival, 8 for a novice chase and 9 for open graded chases. If they think he's ultimately a chaser, thru may just send him straight over fences after a bumper or maiden hurdle win 3) Will BTB actually be as good as he looked? Plenty of the top PTPers last season haven't sparkled this year.
4) If BTB ends up as the seasons best bumper horse showing lots of speed, could he be routed to the Supreme, especially if An Tobar comes back as good as he previously looked?
5) We haven't seen this seasons PTP crop or a lot of the bumper horses yet - I don't think I could name any horse I'd be confident will end up in the 2024 AB right now. We've already seen some very nice looking 4 year old PTP winners over the last 6 weeks that could be better prospects than An Tobar.
6) As has been said on here before, its hard enough picking the AB winner the week before or even on the day. 15 months before would be some shout.

I think he looked an absolute monster and was the one horse I was looking forward to seeing this season. But 33/1 for the AB 15 months away looks plenty short enough to me. Will he even be shorter for the race after the 2023 Cheltenham Festival?

[Winging The Last]

What was the injury that ruled him out this season?

There's a chance he'll be available at 33s once the 2024 AB market is formed, and by then we'll hopefully have an update on his wellbeing.

From what I remember it wasn't anything major, but I don't know exactly what it was. I wouldn't be surprised if he was over his injury by the season end like alot of horses but they don't want to run him once at the end of the season and lose his novice status without a full novice campaign.

With the way that bookies are currently I'd rather take the risk at 33s for the pittance I can get on with them. With a horse of his reputation I would say he would have opened lower if it was after this season's festival with how bookies price up ante post now. Tried to look what he opened up this year in the market by he's removed from the oddschecker market now

[RoadToCheltenham]

What was the injury that ruled him out this season?

Tendon injury I believe

[Kautostar]

Tendon injury I believe

I wouldn’t touch him off the back of a tendon injury. The btb ballymore bet is the play

[Winging The Last]

You are taking quite a small price considering:

1) Season ending injury - will he be the same horse?
2) Will they waste a season novice hurdling if they get him back into top shape? He will be 7 next festival, 8 for a novice chase and 9 for open graded chases. If they think he's ultimately a chaser, thru may just send him straight over fences after a bumper or maiden hurdle win 3) Will BTB actually be as good as he looked? Plenty of the top PTPers last season haven't sparkled this year.
4) If BTB ends up as the seasons best bumper horse showing lots of speed, could he be routed to the Supreme, especially if An Tobar comes back as good as he previously looked?
5) We haven't seen this seasons PTP crop or a lot of the bumper horses yet - I don't think I could name any horse I'd be confident will end up in the 2024 AB right now. We've already seen some very nice looking 4 year old PTP winners over the last 6 weeks that could be better prospects than An Tobar.
6) As has been said on here before, its hard enough picking the AB winner the week before or even on the day. 15 months before would be some shout.

I think he looked an absolute monster and was the one horse I was looking forward to seeing this season. But 33/1 for the AB 15 months away looks plenty short enough to me. Will he even be shorter for the race after the 2023 Cheltenham Festival?

I wouldn't say 33's is a small price in the current ante post climate at all. We're lucky to get 33s on a real good horse these days.

I understand your points but I'm happy to take the risk, I do this every season for the following years festival and have had a lot more successes than failures at the better odds than when the actual markets come up.

In terms of your points:

1) From what I remember hearing it wasn't that serious and I'm happy to take the risk at the amount I can get on with them
2) Most likely they will, it is not very often that trainers send horses over fences before they have a novice hurdle campaign. He will only be 6/7 that isn't old at all
3) You can say the same about ATB then can't you. All horse racing ante post is a guessing game with you taking that risk on, especially from PTP's. I'm happy to take that risk
4) He could but these owners have a proven track record for sending their horses to the Ballymore, and from what I remember always their best one. Also the Ballymore is a race that suits speedy horses anyway, with the way they gallop at a slower speed (to say the supreme) and sprint at the end.
5) Not saying their won't be others but when building a book you back multiple horses and he current based off his PTP form and reputation is one you have to cover
6) Doesn't mean it can be done though. As per above, if you build a book then 33s on ATB in the race he is most likely going to run in as decent value to me with the way that bookies price up ante post markets these days

[FinalFurlong91]

I wouldn’t touch him off the back of a tendon injury. The btb ballymore bet is the play

Yes a tendon injury would be a big red flag for me