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Have to say I don’t see his fall that way at all.
One of the benefits of Cheltenham membership is that the stand sits 1f from the line so you can judge a horses speed from the bottom bend and Conflated for me was traveling quicker than any horse when coming down, I genuinely thought he could get near Alaho.
That said, I’ve spoken to a few judges and they generally don’t think he stays 26.5f but it’s worth recalling the thoughts/confidence of Elliott prior to the festival.
And I’m a stubborn old git so was backing him anyway, one thing for sure there will be far worse 50/1 shots in the festival markets…
Agreed
the people that think that was a tired fall
probably thought don cossacks fall in the king George was a tired one.
we all know how that turned out.
Sectionals showed Cossack was faster than the front 2 just prior his fall.
conflated looks sumitro my eye and was gaining on allaho- the others weren’t.
but we’ll never know for sure
sumitro = similar lol
try to look after grandson who’s just started to walk
Last edited by Quevega; 23 December 2022, 10:38 AM.
Have to say I don’t see his fall that way at all.
One of the benefits of Cheltenham membership is that the stand sits 1f from the line so you can judge a horses speed from the bottom bend and Conflated for me was traveling quicker than any horse when coming down, I genuinely thought he could get near Alaho.
That said, I’ve spoken to a few judges and they generally don’t think he stays 26.5f but it’s worth recalling the thoughts/confidence of Elliott prior to the festival.
And I’m a stubborn old git so was backing him anyway, one thing for sure there will be far worse 50/1 shots in the festival markets…
He wasn't stopping at Aintree over 3m1 so it's hard to see him not getting the extra 300ish yards at Cheltenham.
I love Quevega's spirited case for Conflated at 50-1 in the Gold Cup.
It's a lovely price for a horse who has certainly been a big improver over the last 12 months.
He ran a cracking race in the Ryanair (his only run at Cheltenham) and still seemed to be travelling well when he came down two out.
But imo that was a tired fall and there's a big doubt about whether he'll stay 3m 2f well enough to get up the hill and win a Gold Cup. Decent place options though at that price.
Will he even line up in the GC or have another crack at the Ryanair?
The jury's out on that score too.
So some serious doubts are built into Conflated's price which will undoubtedly contract markedly if he wins over Christmas.
But sometimes the bleeding obvious is staring you right in the face.
Right now there's a 40-1 shot whose entire season will revolve around the Gold Cup.
And he has a Cheltenham/Festival record which reads 1212.
MINELLA INDO: winner of the Bartlett, an unlucky second in the RSA, winner of the Gold Cup and runner up in the Gold Cup.
The one downside is his age but he's not been over-raced during his career and 10makes it just about possible.
This time they've said they are deliberately going for a late start with him and barring injury he'll turn up.
What are we waiting for?
You'd need to have mashed potato for brains not to put him in.
Happy Christmas all.
I'm hoping his price stays big right up until March tbh as a place only bet near the day, has the potential to be a stonking bet especially if can get a top4 etc.
Shishkin Gold Cup - 33/1 Not backed him once during his whole career, its now time to get involved now no one wants to know about him. A true contrarian
Long bitcoin, long gold, long silver, long g/s opening day Cheltenham Festival
It can only be an opinion from any of us at this stage and I'd freely admit to not having as good a handle on Gordon's thoughts as I have on Willie's. However, as it stands I'd say that Conflated was more likely to go for the Ryanair again than the Gold Cup. Reasons?
1. He would probably have finished second last season and Allaho might not be there this time.
2. At Aintree, he wasn't gaining on a horse that also does not quite get home over the extra trip up the Cheltenham hill.
3. The Paddy Power price for the Ryanair is the shortest of all the major players.
4. He's Gigginstown's best hope in either race but, if he has a better chance of winning the Ryanair, I'd expect them to go that route and try to win their own race.
They have no need to make a quick decision so it will be an open question for weeks but, for the purposes of the yankee, I'd say that 25/1 for the Ryanair is a better bet than 50/1 for the Gold Cup.
Depends how he goes in the Savills for sure.
The Gold cup is the Gold cup though.
So very likely if he wins at Xmas.
Although the wicked stepsisters will talk their usual shite I’m sure.
would become Gordon’s main hope
Ahorsewithnoname......runs Boxing Day. 12/1 is tremendous EW value in view of her second in the race this year and with Love Envoi franking the form against the boys off a big Handicap weight. Also the price could be like gold dust if Luccia goes Supreme.
I promise I won't mention her again.
Am I really the only person on here to have backed her ????
Ahorsewithnoname......runs Boxing Day. 12/1 is tremendous EW value in view of her second in the race this year and with Love Envoi franking the form against the boys off a big Handicap weight. Also the price could be like gold dust if Luccia goes Supreme.
I promise I won't mention her again.
Am I really the only person on here to have backed her ????
…..you brainwashed me to get her onside a few months ago. i suspect I’m not alone.
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