2023 Mares Chase

[RoadToCheltenham]

Any news on Say Goodbye??

Spoke to Rob Acheson in October, she had a knock this summer so was sidelined. No idea on her recovery / time frame

[Faugheen_Machine]

Blimey!

I have no strong opinion on the race whatsoever but I think I need to get her in a few multiples as that’s made me sit up and take notice! Odds on if she runs!

It's getting a bit ridiculous how many bets I've got her in. She's just a miles better horse than anything else in the betting, imo. They need to get her out soon though.

[YoungHustler]

Gavin lynch tipped her yesterday I believe at 7/1

Andy Holding also tipped her today.

[BigChaang]

It's getting a bit ridiculous how many bets I've got her in. She's just a miles better horse than anything else in the betting, imo. They need to get her out soon though.

Sunday at Navan - 2-30.... Faugheen .

[charlie]

It's getting a bit ridiculous how many bets I've got her in. She's just a miles better horse than anything else in the betting, imo. They need to get her out soon though.

What's your bullishness based on? I feel like I'm missing the case so I'm going to take her to pieces in the hope you can make me look foolish and change my mind!

Her size and hurdling technique definitely suggests she'll make a better chaser than hurdler - I get that's a big plus, but what has she actually achieved?

In France she went off at big prices, never won and looked really average.

She beat Monishter Are Mwee 11L easily on debut in receipt of weight. Using RPR's as a rough guide she ran to a level below last years winner (Royal Kahala), but was very good.

She's then beaten Brandy Love which on paper reads well, but I think we all know Brandy Love beat herself that day. BL was so bad I think you have to look back to the third and fourth, which were Lunar Display (6L) and Monishter Are Mwee (13L reposing off level weights). Does that read that well?

All I see is a horse with plain hurdles form who has lots of missed entries and that has never jumped a fence in public 4/1 favourite for a race at Cheltenham which is a place she's never been.

The case for her being an atrocious favourite is shit hot isn't it?

[Odin]

I'm convinced I saw a quote from Willie about ADV that suggested she could go against the boys, which I've never seen him mention before and probably suggests the regard they hold her in. Can't find it in RP/ATR/SL stable tours - was it possibly in OJA if anyone who has that can confirm/disprove?

FWIW I think she's poor value now at 4/1ish before jumping a fence, but was an OK price at 7/1 any race or 10/1 Mares. Those who got a proper bet on at 25/1 Paddy just after the festival last year are laughing...

[On The Fringe]

I'm convinced I saw a quote from Willie about ADV that suggested she could go against the boys, which I've never seen him mention before and probably suggests the regard they hold her in. Can't find it in RP/ATR/SL stable tours - was it possibly in OJA if anyone who has that can confirm/disprove?

From OJA - "Every inch a chaser, she is well above average and we are hoping she will take high rank over fences, including against geldings"

Not sure if that is the quote you were thinking of, but that was all I could find in OJA

[Zachx02]

The weakness of the division is 100% inserted into the price if she comes out and wins a beginners chase relatively easily then it will look like value considering the reigning champion doesnt look she enjoys racing anymore

[Odin]

From OJA - "Every inch a chaser, she is well above average and we are hoping she will take high rank over fences, including against geldings"

Not sure if that is the quote you were thinking of, but that was all I could find in OJA

That's exactly the one, thanks I think it speaks volumes but she's gotta prove it on track now

[Faugheen_Machine]

What's your bullishness based on? I feel like I'm missing the case so I'm going to take her to pieces in the hope you can make me look foolish and change my mind!

Her size and hurdling technique definitely suggests she'll make a better chaser than hurdler - I get that's a big plus, but what has she actually achieved?

In France she went off at big prices, never won and looked really average.

She beat Monishter Are Mwee 11L easily on debut in receipt of weight. Using RPR's as a rough guide she ran to a level below last years winner (Royal Kahala), but was very good.

She's then beaten Brandy Love which on paper reads well, but I think we all know Brandy Love beat herself that day. BL was so bad I think you have to look back to the third and fourth, which were Lunar Display (6L) and Monishter Are Mwee (13L reposing off level weights). Does that read that well?

All I see is a horse with plain hurdles form who has lots of missed entries and that has never jumped a fence in public 4/1 favourite for a race at Cheltenham which is a place she's never been.

The case for her being an atrocious favourite is shit hot isn't it?

The beating of Brandy Love is the key thing for me. Yes she hung but I think that is massively over played and it isn't a certainty that she would have beaten ADV. ADV was pushed out hands and heels, it was comfortable.

They were joint favourites going into the race so the Mullins team couldn't split them - I'm fairly sure BL would have been well backed off the boards if she was thought to be the better of the two, but she wasn't, it was ADV that was pushed in from 5/2 > 7/4 before the tapes went up.

What Brandy Love went on to do only enhanced my thoughts on the other mare.

I really like BL too btw. I think they'll both win.

[Istabraq]

The beating of Brandy Love is the key thing for me. Yes she hung but I think that is massively over played and it isn't a certainty that she would have beaten ADV. ADV was pushed out hands and heels, it was comfortable.

They were joint favourites going into the race so the Mullins team couldn't split them - I'm fairly sure BL would have been well backed off the boards if she was thought to be the better of the two, but she wasn't, it was ADV that was pushed in from 5/2 > 7/4 before the tapes went up.

What Brandy Love went on to do only enhanced my thoughts on the other mare.

I really like BL too btw. I think they'll both win.

Wasn't Brandy Love a short price in the morning and drifted horribly on the day ?
I always believed BL was held in better regard in the yard and maybe something was amiss leading up to the race, I've been waiting for the JOB horse (3rd) in that Fairyhouse race to come out and do something decent, and she hasn't, which suggests to me BL is much better than that performance (even allowing for the horrific hanging).
It's a very crude assessment but I need convincing otherwise...

[charlie]

The beating of Brandy Love is the key thing for me. Yes she hung but I think that is massively over played and it isn't a certainty that she would have beaten ADV. ADV was pushed out hands and heels, it was comfortable.

They were joint favourites going into the race so the Mullins team couldn't split them - I'm fairly sure BL would have been well backed off the boards if she was thought to be the better of the two, but she wasn't, it was ADV that was pushed in from 5/2 > 7/4 before the tapes went up.

What Brandy Love went on to do only enhanced my thoughts on the other mare.

I really like BL too btw. I think they'll both win.

I'm still not convinced FM, we may have to agree to disagree on this one!

For me, beating BL right handed doesn't count for much when she's that erratic. She didn't just hang, she jumped way out to her left at the third last and violently out to her left at the second last - to the point where she nearly unshipped Paul Townend. Those big mistakes, plus hanging, plus racing too keenly must have seen her surrender 10 lengths plus and I'm being conservative, and she's lost by 3L. Paul chose her despite her well known right handed quirks so I cant think the stable think ADV is better than BL and the proximity of Lunar Display also looks ordinary.

There is a lot to like - you'd think she'd devour a fence and she's a Mullins/Ricci horse, so could improve chunks and I may end up looking silly, I just don't think she deserves to be favourite but time will tell. Good luck with her and FWIW, I definitely think she'll be competitive I just don't think she'll dine a the very top table.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm still not convinced FM, we may have to agree to disagree on this one!

For me, beating BL right handed doesn't count for much when she's that erratic. She didn't just hang, she jumped way out to her left at the third last and violently out to her left at the second last - to the point where she nearly unshipped Paul Townend. Those big mistakes, plus hanging, plus racing too keenly must have seen her surrender 10 lengths plus and I'm being conservative, and she's lost by 3L. Paul chose her despite her well known right handed quirks so I cant think the stable think ADV is better than BL and the proximity of Lunar Display also looks ordinary.

There is a lot to like - you'd think she'd devour a fence and she's a Mullins/Ricci horse, so could improve chunks and I may end up looking silly, I just don't think she deserves to be favourite but time will tell. Good luck with her and FWIW, I definitely think she'll be competitive I just don't think she'll dine a the very top table.

Yeah, I fully understand people taking the opposite view. I've been wrong more times than I care to remember and may be wide of the mark again.

At least I'll know my fate early enough in the season as her debut should be a good indicator on where I stand. Someone else must like her, as I'm sure it isn't down to me that her price keeps getting knocked in

[RoadToCheltenham]

Impervious up for sale... Will be interesting to see how much she fetches - and who buys her!

[That Horse]

Impervious up for sale... Will be interesting to see how much she fetches - and who buys her!

The trainer alluded to that after her win recently. He wants to continue training her though, I think he said he holds a percentage of her.