2023 Mares Chase

[FinalFurlong91]

Wouldn't back her for the Mares Hurdle with my own or anyone elses money, Love Envoi, Brandy Love and Epatante all beat her comfortably imo

And you've not even mentioned the reigning champ and punchestown winner Marie's rock

This race is there for the taking the mares hurdle has plenty of depth

[Lobos]

And you've not even mentioned the reigning champ and punchestown winner Marie's rock

This race is there for the taking the mares hurdle has plenty of depth

We don't know the depth of the Mares Chase yet. Mullins hasn't unleashed his best . Agree the Mares Hurdle has depth but not sure there is a stand out . It's also there for the taking imo. Just don't think TMSG jumped well enough today regardless of lack of fitness.

[Exar Essay]

I think you've also got to bear in mind that she's not won in 6 races (since her win at the '21 fez). Five of those over hurdles against varying quality of opposition. It was easier to forgive her last year than it is this.

[Black Dog]

Four of those runs were right-handed though and she's only won a maiden that way round from nine starts. The other two were a close third in a decent grade 3 and her unlucky run at Cheltenham. I agree you can't forgive her forever, but I think she's still got some credit in the bank. Let's hope she improves for the run as she normally does.

[charlie]

The flip side is that the Mares Chase is an open grade 2.

So to be a challenger come March you probably have to be a pretty decent novice.
Colreevy winning the first edition may have lulled people into thinking novices have a great chance, but maybe she was exceptional and a lot better for a fence (her form says as much)

Not winning your beginner/maiden first time up isn't ideal.
Even with the specific points surrounding TMSG.

Concertista was another stuffy fat bitch and a better hurdler than TMSG, and she couldn't manage to beat some average more experienced mares in last seasons renewal.

TMSG's current price for this race is shit. But not as shit as Allegorie De Vassy's current price. IMO.

It's a piss weak open Grade 2 though.

Stowaway's tend to thrive over fences and barring the odd careful jump, I didn't see anything that would make me doubt she'll take to fences.

Re Elimay and Colreevy, TMSG had ran to a higher level over hurdles than both - plus also the current market favourite who I agree is a terrible price.

IMO Concertista cannot be used as a stick to beat novices. Her jumping was absolutely abysmal and the fact she had every chance turning in is a testament to how shit this division is.

I think 14's about TMSG is actually very fair and its annoying the bookies are now wise to horses historically poor or fat on debut.

[Faugheen_Machine]

If ADV lines up in this then I think she'll be an odds on favourite.

If she disappoints or has a setback she won't run, but if she does run she's going to be very short imo. I'm happy to keep backing her at current odds, although can understand why others think her price is awful.

Here's one. Brandy Love and ADV are similar prices for their respective races, and neither have run this season. Which of the two would people prefer to side with at this point?

I think the majority would go ADV.

[charlie]

I do think TMSG will end up running in the Mares Hurdle. Not tongue in cheek. I believe she'd have a better chance winning that than the Mares Chase. No reason why she can't mix it between codes either.

Why? Do you really think Henry and connections are going to draw stump on a chasing career for a Stowaway off the back of some careful jumps and second on debut when fat? Careful or not fluent at the 2nd and 4th, then obviously made a mistake at the last when tired, but she winged lots of fences and the head on shot at the 6th, plus 3rd and 2nd last, was a lovely jumping technique. Thats just an odd view, as is thinking the mares hurdle would be more winnable - that race looks infinitely more competitive on paper.

[Quevega]

If ADV lines up in this then I think she'll be an odds on favourite.

If she disappoints or has a setback she won't run, but if she does run she's going to be very short imo. I'm happy to keep backing her at current odds, although can understand why others think her price is awful.

Here's one. Brandy Love and ADV are similar prices for their respective races, and neither have run this season. Which of the two would people prefer to side with at this point?

I think the majority would go ADV.

Brandy Love.
I do think Allegorie may be very good, but Willie will be wary of the lack of experience and also quite keen to get a 3 timer up with Elimay.
I thought the bookies conned people into Concertista and she'd acheived far more over a hurdle.
The later she runs, the less likely she runs IMO.

Looked a giraffe when hurdling though so might be good at a fence, or still a giraffe.
If she's really good at jumping a fence then your bets have a good chance of getting a run for your money.

[Quevega]

It's a piss weak open Grade 2 though.

Stowaway's tend to thrive over fences and barring the odd careful jump, I didn't see anything that would make me doubt she'll take to fences.

Re Elimay and Colreevy, TMSG had ran to a higher level over hurdles than both - plus also the current market favourite who I agree is a terrible price.

IMO Concertista cannot be used as a stick to beat novices. Her jumping was absolutely abysmal and the fact she had every chance turning in is a testament to how shit this division is.

I think 14's about TMSG is actually very fair and its annoying the bookies are now wise to horses historically poor or fat on debut.

You can't really bank on this mare being one of Stowaway's better chasing offspring.
He's put his bell end into a lot of mares.
It's low percentage stuff.

I think she's a player if she can get more experience and she's been out early enough to go again in a beginner's and then win a graded race prior to March, and then they'll probably take their chance.

I was just disappointed she couldn't win the race the other day, and the list of excuses for her is getting bigger (so was playing devils advocate). To add to this I think the race she won at the festival might have been run to suit and fell in her lap a little, although I thought it was decent at the time and still do, just not so much.

Is she capable of getting up to 150+ rated, and do this over a fence ? - this is what's needed, minimum IMO.

Just think any novice will need to be well above average as the more experienced mares, although without a superstar, there are a few of a decent standard (high 140's) who can run to a good level.

[ComplyOrDie]

Here's one. Brandy Love and ADV are similar prices for their respective races, and neither have run this season. Which of the two would people prefer to side with at this point?

I think the majority would go ADV.

Brandy Love on what we've seen over hurdles, ADV on likely opposition (think the Mares Hurdle will be a harder race), basically I'm sitting on the fence and this post has zero use (a bit like a lot of my posts ).

[Lobos]

Why? Do you really think Henry and connections are going to draw stump on a chasing career for a Stowaway off the back of some careful jumps and second on debut when fat? Careful or not fluent at the 2nd and 4th, then obviously made a mistake at the last when tired, but she winged lots of fences and the head on shot at the 6th, plus 3rd and 2nd last, was a lovely jumping technique. Thats just an odd view, as is thinking the mares hurdle would be more winnable - that race looks infinitely more competitive on paper.

Not sure it will be more competitive. More classy perhaps? We might not see Epatante in it. Marie's Rock, let's face it, was a shock winner this year. Brandy Love could throw it away, Love Envoi needs it soft in day one. TMSG would have won imo this year. She couldn't win yesterday with her biggest threat being pulled out and then getting weight from , let's face it, a horse she should be beating on her hurdle rating even if she was a little tubby.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Brandy Love on what we've seen over hurdles, ADV on likely opposition (think the Mares Hurdle will be a harder race), basically I'm sitting on the fence and this post has zero use (a bit like a lot of my posts ).

Im surprised that anyone would side with Brandy Love on that.

Looking at it another way, if they line up on the day, who would have the shorter SP?

[Faugheen_Machine]

Brandy Love.
I do think Allegorie may be very good, but Willie will be wary of the lack of experience and also quite keen to get a 3 timer up with Elimay.
I thought the bookies conned people into Concertista and she'd acheived far more over a hurdle.
The later she runs, the less likely she runs IMO.

Looked a giraffe when hurdling though so might be good at a fence, or still a giraffe.
If she's really good at jumping a fence then your bets have a good chance of getting a run for your money.

Looked like a giraffe and still gave Brandy a spanking

[ComplyOrDie]

Im surprised that anyone would side with Brandy Love on that.

Looking at it another way, if they line up on the day, who would have the shorter SP?

Brandy threw the race away when they met over hurdles.

But I do think, all being well and ADV takes to fences, that ADV goes off shorter. IMO, even this far out, the Mares Chase looks weaker than the Mares Hurdle. A former Champion Hurdle winner (and placed twice) likely heading to the Mares Hurdle gives it plenty of substance.

[charlie]

You can't really bank on this mare being one of Stowaway's better chasing offspring.
He's put his bell end into a lot of mares.
It's low percentage stuff.

I think she's a player if she can get more experience and she's been out early enough to go again in a beginner's and then win a graded race prior to March, and then they'll probably take their chance.

I was just disappointed she couldn't win the race the other day, and the list of excuses for her is getting bigger (so was playing devils advocate). To add to this I think the race she won at the festival might have been run to suit and fell in her lap a little, although I thought it was decent at the time and still do, just not so much.

Is she capable of getting up to 150+ rated, and do this over a fence ? - this is what's needed, minimum IMO.

Just think any novice will need to be well above average as the more experienced mares, although without a superstar, there are a few of a decent standard (high 140's) who can run to a good level.

Not banking on the breeding just noting that Stowaway is known for producing better chasers than hurdlers.

You're right, the experience will be key and I expect her to improve as she does throughout the season.

I suppose time will tell re 150+. She's on that cusp isn't she of potentially being very good, or just being that horse that won once at the festival, then declines.

Punters (not you Q just generally) can be ridiculously unforgiving and blinkered when horses aren't fit and put up 'poor' debut performances.