2023 Mares Hurdle

[FinalFurlong91]

I thought you liked her a lot FF??!!

THink you are just getting itchy feet.

I do, I think she's extremely talented

But how can a 146 horse be odds on giving a 144 horse 9lbs on her first run for 10 months at a track she doesn't like

That at odds on is one of the least appealing bets I can imagine

If queens brook runs to her mark Brandy will have to run to 154 to win, I don't see that as particularly likely

I'd love to see it but I doubt it

I won't be bothered in the slightest if she loses today, the main thing is her not having a hard race

Paul will hopefully be under instructions to make sure she doesn't leave her mares hurdle race on the track today

[ComplyOrDie]

But how can a 146 horse be odds on giving a 144 horse 9lbs on her first run for 10 months at a track she doesn't like

That at odds on is one of the least appealing bets I can imagine

If queens brook runs to her mark Brandy will have to run to 154 to win, I don't see that as particularly likely

She's going to have to run to that sort of mark to want to take on Honeysuckle at the festival, given the fact Honey is rated 160.

[Benjy23]

Aye, Brandy should definitely be fav as the one most likely to be capable of running to a higher mark to be fair.

[FinalFurlong91]

She's going to have to run to that sort of mark to want to take on Honeysuckle at the festival, given the fact Honey is rated 160.

I don't think she does personally

She will come on for the run and improve plenty for going left handed

Honeysuckle hasn't run remotely close to 160 in either of her starts this year so that wouldn't worry me

she's been running to low 150s

[Lobos]

I don't think she does personally

She will come on for the run and improve plenty for going left handed

Honeysuckle hasn't run remotely close to 160 in either of her starts this year so that wouldn't worry me

she's been running to low 150s

I'd be more afraid of the other 3 than Honeysuckle. Marie's Rock and Love Envoi have made big improvements this season and Epatante has looked really solid.

[FinalFurlong91]

I'd be more afraid of the other 3 than Honeysuckle. Marie's Rock and Love Envoi have made big improvements this season and Epatante has looked really solid.

My two are Brandy and Marie's rock

Marie's rock will take a lot of beating if running

Don't think epatante will stay 2m4f with an end to end gallop and stiff finish. Still a chance she runs in the champion judging by nickys comments too.

And tbh iv never really rated love envoi

She's faced one top mare I her life and Brandy absolutely battered her. She beat a hugely regressive mare in martello sky last time so i dont see that as evidence shes come forward enough.

[Kevloaf]

Not to reply on Benjys behalf, but It’s not really an excuse though is it? It’s just having an idea in your head of what you’d find an acceptable/unacceptable level of performance from an ante post cheltenham bet before their first run of the season, which we think about before all of our selections run?

personally my opinion before the race is run is pretty much the same as benjys, that if she jumps relatively straight but doesn’t win I’d be disappointed despite the weight concession, but if she hangs off across the track the whole way around which we know there’s a fair chance she could do going by prior evidence, but still only loses narrowly I wouldn’t be that disappointed, as it wouldn’t be hard at all to see how she can improve a bundle back left handed?

as for expecting Marie’s rock to give queens brook 9lbs and a beating, she beat her by under 2l last year off level weights, I think it’s fair to say that if she was conceding Qb 9lbs and race fitness, and didn’t like racing left handed, that maybe that would have cost her 1.75 lengths?

If you read back what I've said I'm not sure we disagree.

My point was (maybe not well made) that I don't want to be coming on here after a defeat that plenty seem to be expecting could happen, reading that she's still a good thing... I want people to be genuine and be aware of the potential bias


I personally think if she doesn't win today, she's not going to win the Mares Hurdle.... and as I've said, I very much do hope she wins today.

[Kevloaf]

If any of the above had displayed her crazy jumping to the left in their previous race right handed- i think there would be a bit more caution on them giving her a beating on a reappearance also.

Queens Brook ran well in her 2nd last year in this against MR- she's no slouch at her best. 144 + 149 rprs at today's track.

No doubt this year's will probably taking more winning though...

Jumping left or right, unless she goes straight it's not a positive no matter which way around the track is .... it's just worse the opposite way.

[darlojim]

I personally think if she doesn't win today, she's not going to win the Mares Hurdle.... and as I've said, I very much do hope she wins today.

Surely not that simple though is it Kev?

Say beaten 1 or 2L by Queens Brook finishing plenty clear of the others and say Brandy jumped how she did in the Solerina, that would surely be a very big performance? Worth noting they're using the inside track today aswell, so she could end up in the stands at some point

[Kevloaf]

Surely not that simple though is it Kev?

Say beaten 1 or 2L by Queens Brook finishing plenty clear of the others and say Brandy jumped how she did in the Solerina, that would surely be a very big performance? Worth noting they're using the inside track today aswell, so she could end up in the stands at some point

Yes, for me it's that simple.

A 'big performance' behind Queen's Brook where the "moral" victory is because she jumped to the side at each hurdle, for me, will not be good enough to win the Mares Hurdle.

She needs to give weight, and a beating, even if she jumps the wrong way....

[riccirich]

If you read back what I've said I'm not sure we disagree.

My point was (maybe not well made) that I don't want to be coming on here after a defeat that plenty seem to be expecting could happen, reading that she's still a good thing... I want people to be genuine and be aware of the potential bias


I personally think if she doesn't win today, she's not going to win the Mares Hurdle.... and as I've said, I very much do hope she wins today.

Oh yeah I certainly wouldnt be just ignoring a defeat if I didnt feel there was enough reason to excuse it, I dont think she's a "good thing" for the mares now before todays race and I of course wouldnt think so if she was beaten today, but I think she has a very good chance in the mares and I still could depending on the manner of a possible defeat, my confidence in her for the mares would only rise if she won today.

I might have read what you said slightly wrongly, to me it sounded comparable to saying something like "if asterion forlonge doesnt win over this sharp left handed track today, then no matter the circumstances of defeat he is not going to win a king george". We can see before todays race that literally all the conditions are in qb favour, so imo brandy could be cut some slack, as long as she isn't well beat of course. Feel like your being a bit too dismissive of qb too, yes she's not reliable and I dont think she's going to be winning the mares, but she still finished 2nd last year and is capable of strong form, so if back to her best today with everything in her favour I dont think a narrow win for her would signal the end of brandys chances, imo.

[Lobos]

Love Envoi was OTT when beaten by BL and has improved past her on ratings so far this year. She's a huge player.

[Craigy14]

I’d be concerned of the ground for love envoi more than anything. Connections have stated on numerous occasions she needs soft ground. If it’s anything like the supposed good to soft last year I’d be well against her.

[Istabraq]

I’d be concerned of the ground for love envoi more than anything. Connections have stated on numerous occasions she needs soft ground. If it’s anything like the supposed good to soft last year I’d be well against her.

Yeah completely agree, big runner if it comes up soft, anything other than deep ground and she's vulnerable.
Definitely one to leave until the day I think, or at least until there's more confidence in ground conditions...

[Lobos]

They've been really surprised by how much quicker she's been this season which is why she has a Champion Hurdle entry. She'll have no trouble on Good to Soft over 2 1/2.