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The stayers isn't an easier race than facing honeysuckle anyway
You run in the stayers you'll be potentially facing the two horses that beat her in the hattons grace
Over a trip Marie's rock (a keen going not certain to stay) is completely unproven over
Exactly this. People keep spouting it’s an easier race as not particular deep but the level you have to run to will be at least as high as the Mares Hurdle. Your looking at 155 in the Mares minimum this season & with the 7lb she’d get providing she stays, she’d have run run to at least that level.
I can understand off that theory the appeal as if your making others run to 163+ a Stayers crown is far more appealing. It’s no easier thou.
My only issue with the Stayers is that she travels so strongly so she may take too much out of herself. She's a multiple Grade 1 winner in her sex at the distance, including at the course. Introduce her to 3m at Aintree and then go for the Stayers next year if takes to the distance at Aintree.
There's a lot of talk about going for the "easier" race when it's a Mares race and it's spoken of really negatively (see Honey debate), surely if MR moves up in distance for the "easier" race at Cheltenham, it's just as disappointing from a sporting perspective even if it does mean taking on the boys?
Have you watched her race in Ireland ...if you havent or not recently, take a look and let me know what you think ....to me it had stayers hurdle written all over it. Personally I don’t buy this easier race stuff, I simply believe she will improve for 3 miles and deserves to be in the race, one of the two championship hurdle races which top mares should be in imo, nothing to do with the opposition for me.
My only issue with the Stayers is that she travels so strongly so she may take too much out of herself. She's a multiple Grade 1 winner in her sex at the distance, including at the course. Introduce her to 3m at Aintree and then go for the Stayers next year if takes to the distance at Aintree.
There's a lot of talk about going for the "easier" race when it's a Mares race and it's spoken of really negatively (see Honey debate), surely if MR moves up in distance for the "easier" race at Cheltenham, it's just as disappointing from a sporting perspective even if it does mean taking on the boys?
Well owners have now said a decision will be made as late as possible, which imo makes complete sense.
How they will determine will probably depend on ground and likely opposition in both races, and Epatante!!
My gut feeling is this may well hinge on how Epatante is?
If they are really happy with her, I have a feeling Maries will go stayers,if the ground is looking ok at decision time.
If the ground looks to be an issue with her stepping up, we will see both in Mares.
Have you watched her race in Ireland ...if you havent or not recently, take a look and let me know what you think ....to me it had stayers hurdle written all over it. Personally I don’t buy this easier race stuff, I simply believe she will improve for 3 miles and deserves to be in the race, one of the two championship hurdle races which top mares should be in imo, nothing to do with the opposition for me.
Fwiw I deliberately used quotation marks around easier because I don't believe it's an easier race than the mares, just different.
Anyway, I went further than just the punchestown race, I also watched both Cheltenham races (mares and relkeel) again. I actually don't think punchestown had stayers written all over it in the same way that you do, but both Cheltenham races show that if she settles she could be a monster over 3m.
In Ireland, the race was 2m3f rather than 2m4/4.5f and she was up against 2-2.5milers. Despite that, she never seemed outpaced by them to me - she was just able to maintain the pace for longer. That's indicative that she could run over 2.5m+ but only relative to the horses that we know aren't looking for a 3m trip.
The two Cheltenham races on the other hand really impressed me. She was keen to the 4th in the mares but powered clear of Queens brook (who herself may be more of a stayer) in the last 100 yards. I'd forgotten how impressive that was. In the relkeel she pulled until the top of the hill pretty much - almost 2/3 of the race and still powered clear of dashel drasher after the last. She definitely has the engine for 3m but I just need to be certain she'd settle and it's complete rubbish from the owners to say that settling isn't a problem when she's pulled for 2/3 of a 2.5 mile race.
She will be an early bet for me in the stayers next year if she avoids it this year and gets an entry in the 3 miler at aintree, I will say that much!
Well owners have now said a decision will be made as late as possible, which imo makes complete sense.
How they will determine will probably depend on ground and likely opposition in both races, and Epatante!!
My gut feeling is this may well hinge on how Epatante is?
If they are really happy with her, I have a feeling Maries will go stayers,if the ground is looking ok at decision time.
If the ground looks to be an issue with her stepping up, we will see both in Mares.
Nothing wrong with them making the decision late, would be a shame if epatante was the deciding factor though as Marie's beat her fair and square last year. Time will tell though
Nothing wrong with them making the decision late, would be a shame if epatante was the deciding factor though as Marie's beat her fair and square last year. Time will tell though
I’m thinking Hendo won’t want a scenario where both get done by Honeysuckle, if he is worried about her presence that is.
She would not have been a factor in the thinking till now probably.
And it’s not as if they haven’t thought about stepping up anyway. Just would be Cheltenham instead of Aintree
Epatante will have nothing to do with Maries Rock's destination IMO, neither will Honeysuckle or Brandy Love.
It's more a decision based around how the stayers shapes up, and how many of the real contenders are still in the mix.
If Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter are definitely ruled out then that may just about sway them to have a pop, especially if all the top mares are still standing too.
The sensible option is to run in the mares as the ground will be pretty much normal and it's tried and tested.
The doubt about her keen nature will nag away a little if they get tempted for the stayers.
So I think this race would have to be without 2 or 3 of the top of the market for them to actually run.
Fwiw I deliberately used quotation marks around easier because I don't believe it's an easier race than the mares, just different.
Anyway, I went further than just the punchestown race, I also watched both Cheltenham races (mares and relkeel) again. I actually don't think punchestown had stayers written all over it in the same way that you do, but both Cheltenham races show that if she settles she could be a monster over 3m.
In Ireland, the race was 2m3f rather than 2m4/4.5f and she was up against 2-2.5milers. Despite that, she never seemed outpaced by them to me - she was just able to maintain the pace for longer. That's indicative that she could run over 2.5m+ but only relative to the horses that we know aren't looking for a 3m trip.
The two Cheltenham races on the other hand really impressed me. She was keen to the 4th in the mares but powered clear of Queens brook (who herself may be more of a stayer) in the last 100 yards. I'd forgotten how impressive that was. In the relkeel she pulled until the top of the hill pretty much - almost 2/3 of the race and still powered clear of dashel drasher after the last. She definitely has the engine for 3m but I just need to be certain she'd settle and it's complete rubbish from the owners to say that settling isn't a problem when she's pulled for 2/3 of a 2.5 mile race.
She will be an early bet for me in the stayers next year if she avoids it this year and gets an entry in the 3 miler at aintree, I will say that much!
I don’t think there is a horse in training that I have studied as closely as MR. Yes she is fresh in most of her races but i really do not feel it has ever been the kind of freshness that means she is over using her energy reserves. If you like it is a controlled keenness. There has never been a single race where there has been the slightest piece of evidence that it has eaten into her reserves. On the contrary, the end of her race is without fail her strongest.
I think rather than see her keenness as a potential problem upped in trip we should simply ignore it and instead focus on outcomes and not process. Process being keenness, outcome being winning every race with a sustained and strong powerful finish. Any horse that repeatedly has the finish of their race as their strongest most powerful asset (and with her it’s a sustained prolonged effort rather than a sudden turn of foot) would and should be identified as a prime candidate for further improvement upped in trip. If her breeding cast doubt then that would concern me more than her run style does but her pedigree screams stamina.
I suspect we are actually in heated (actually not at all heated) agreement. Perhaps the only thing we disagree on is how much of a concern her keenness is. If she runs in the stayers she will be a (close to) maximum bet for me. She will be the quickest horse in the field and the horse with the most powerful finish and her punishment for that will be a sex allowance. IMO the only reason she doesn’t come out on top on ratings is because she hasn’t run against a high enough rated horse yet. The only horse that would have me a little worried is Teahupoo as he is obviously unexposed at the trip and if he improves for it too then I can see the two of them battling it out up the hill. I don’t see any of the others being able to travel strongly enough to blunt her sustained finish. Ironically as it stands my biggest winner in the stayers is HBTL but I honestly cannot see how he beats her giving her weight.
It’s a game of opinions and many, perhaps even the majority will disagree with me. Very few horses actually compel me to post my own opinion with any great conviction (as I dont really value it that highly myself so why should others), but I tend to make an exception with her.
Is she staying on or does she have a potent turn of foot?
I'd say it was a turn of foot
Would she quicken in the same way over further? Having likely pulled for most of the race going a slower pace
2m4f just looks her perfect trip to me
Shed get 3 miles I'd think, but would she get it strongly enough to win a stayers?
What we call it is irrelevant imo.But let’s say it is a turn of foot, then it’s one she can sustain for a long time as she consistently continues to pull further clear in her races and uphill as well. It’s not an injection of pace that she struggles to maintain. I don’t think that is possible without stamina.
Epatante will have nothing to do with Maries Rock's destination IMO, neither will Honeysuckle or Brandy Love.
It's more a decision based around how the stayers shapes up, and how many of the real contenders are still in the mix.
If Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter are definitely ruled out then that may just about sway them to have a pop, especially if all the top mares are still standing too.
The sensible option is to run in the mares as the ground will be pretty much normal and it's tried and tested.
The doubt about her keen nature will nag away a little if they get tempted for the stayers.
So I think this race would have to be without 2 or 3 of the top of the market for them to actually run.
Yeah I did say they would look at both races at decision time and maybe it will be whose left in the stayers that decides things, who knows??!!
Its all summising anyway, but interesting all the same.
I do think the Stayers is her best chance of winning and agree with the points Rooster is making, she’s got stayer written all over her.
It has to be mighty tempting to take it on with her allowance.
Epatante will have nothing to do with Maries Rock's destination IMO, neither will Honeysuckle or Brandy Love.
It's more a decision based around how the stayers shapes up, and how many of the real contenders are still in the mix.
If Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter are definitely ruled out then that may just about sway them to have a pop, especially if all the top mares are still standing too.
The sensible option is to run in the mares as the ground will be pretty much normal and it's tried and tested.
The doubt about her keen nature will nag away a little if they get tempted for the stayers.
So I think this race would have to be without 2 or 3 of the top of the market for them to actually run.
You’re absolutely right but the stayers is worth quite a whack more than the mares and they’ll never be a better chance to win it. 130k for the stayers winner compared to ?50k for the mares. Is that too big a difference to turn down in a crazy year?
You’re absolutely right but the stayers is worth quite a whack more than the mares and they’ll never be a better chance to win it. 130k for the stayers winner compared to ?50k for the mares. Is that too big a difference to turn down in a crazy year?
I think she should go for it. Already won a Mares Hurdle. Try and get a Stayers Hurdle on her Broodmare CV as well. Mares looks equally strong with stablemate Epatante, Love Envoi, Brandy Love and potentially Honeysuckle. That's some line up.
I disagree that the outcome (result) is more important than the process (keen/strong travelling) in this situation, but agree it's just a matter of different levels of concern regarding the pulling/keenness/travelling strongly (if she is a strong traveller at 2m4f, she's gonna be an even stronger traveller at 3m which will either take too much out of her, or she'll be able to sustain it better than anyone else due to her pedigree as you say).
I still believe she should go Mares this year, but you've convinced me enough to look into how I can get her covered for the Stayers proactively rather than reactively if she's declared as I was going to do
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