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Cheers Aaron
Makes it very interesting if you are correct.
Dont really give Honey much of a chance in the CH.
Got to seriously consider Honey turning up here.
Just be aware that with the droughts we had this summer, all ground will be riding faster than it was last year because there's less moisture in the soil, so I'd expect the times to be slightly faster. That doesn't mean Epatante isn't running to last years form, it's just something to be aware of.
I made my thoughts on Honey to Mares known before the Hattons Grace and they were roundly disagreed with, which is fine but I won't be re-entering that argument!
Just be aware that with the droughts we had this summer, all ground will be riding faster than it was last year because there's less moisture in the soil, so I'd expect the times to be slightly faster. That doesn't mean Epatante isn't running to last years form, it's just something to be aware of.
I made my thoughts on Honey to Mares known before the Hattons Grace and they were roundly disagreed with, which is fine but I won't be re-entering that argument!
Don’t need to be an argument imo.
Ive had a bet on Marie’s Rock before Honey and Epatante ran this season, and before I look at other options on this race, just think it would be good to sound out a few opinions of others on here now we have some performances to go on .
Honey and/or Epatante turning up here would make a big difference when looking at this race for me.
Don’t need to be an argument imo.
Ive had a bet on Marie’s Rock before Honey and Epatante ran this season, and before I look at other options on this race, just think it would be good to sound out a few opinions of others on here now we have some performances to go on .
Honey and/or Epatante turning up here would make a big difference when looking at this race for me.
I appreciate why you are asking. Here is my view on Honey. She will run in the CH unless connections believe she has deteriorated. If that is the case I wouldn’t touch her for the mares either. In other words if she runs in the mares then it’s good news as she will take a percentage out of the market and there will be value to be had.
Epatante is a tougher call. I think if you offered connections second in the Ch or win the mares I genuinely think they would go for the former. If State man looks impressive nto then second would look unlikely and I could then see them prioritising Aintree over both races (ofc it is possible she could run in the mares and Aintree but I think they would have in the back of their mind that the mares may be too testing and therefore take the edge of Aintree).
Just to be clear all the above is complete guesswork but you asked for opinions which is just a fancy way of saying guesses.
I appreciate why you are asking. Here is my view on Honey. She will run in the CH unless connections believe she has deteriorated. If that is the case I wouldn’t touch her for the mares either. In other words if she runs in the mares then it’s good news as she will take a percentage out of the market and there will be value to be had.
Epatante is a tougher call. I think if you offered connections second in the Ch or win the mares I genuinely think they would go for the former. If State man looks impressive nto then second would look unlikely and I could then see them prioritising Aintree over both races (ofc it is possible she could run in the mares and Aintree but I think they would have in the back of their mind that the mares may be too testing and therefore take the edge of Aintree).
Just to be clear all the above is complete guesswork but you asked for opinions which is just a fancy way of saying guesses.
Cheers RB much appreciated.
Good points and food for thought for sure.
Big thing for me is the point you make re Honey potentially running here and providing value elsewhere.
I don’t intend to back either Honey or Epatante for this, even if it becomes likely one or both run, but getting better prices for one or two that I would like to back certainly appeals.
Just be aware that with the droughts we had this summer, all ground will be riding faster than it was last year because there's less moisture in the soil, so I'd expect the times to be slightly faster. That doesn't mean Epatante isn't running to last years form, it's just something to be aware of.
I made my thoughts on Honey to Mares known before the Hattons Grace and they were roundly disagreed with, which is fine but I won't be re-entering that argument!
As i said Odin it isn't an exact science but when comparing her times from this year and last year I also used the other races and times recorded on the same cards to give me a fair analysis. I haven't just looked at winning times and posted the obvious.
I still think Marie's Rock is a great bet for this at double figure odds, being the reigning champion, won 4 of last 5, already beaten Epatante who's half the odds and plenty of other top rate mares. What's not to like.
Now got an entry on new years day in the Relkeel at Cheltenham so clearly fit and healthy.
SWIW getting 3lbs from queens brook at leops on in the mares hurdle. Could she be routed here , was highly touted last season before she became injured, however might she end up in the pertemps?
SWIW won well there. Queens Brook had the run of the race and got beat comfortably.
Great to see SWIW back and racing well again after her fall last season. Lovely ride from PT, though the race really fell into his lap. Outside chance at the Festival.
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