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It absolutely depends what happens in the run like. If Brandy Love appears to run straight and doesn't win I'd be disappointed to be fair, despite the weights. Every chance she hangs left, runs an extra furlong because of it and still finishes a few lengths behind and I'm happy.
Coral Cup entry would be no concern to me. Her strength on the exchange for the Mares Hurdle has always had me confident.
The point I'm making is that's the exact kind of bias you should be able to seperate yourself from...
You have already made a narrative where you're backing up your own bet.
If she loses tomorrow, hopefully she drifts for the Coral Cup and we can all make a bit of money
The point I'm making is that's the exact kind of bias you should be able to seperate yourself from...
You have already made a narrative where you're backing up your own bet.
If she loses tomorrow, hopefully she drifts for the Coral Cup and we can all make a bit of money
Or is the point you're making your bias...
I'm making an excuse that a horse proven to hang left at right handed tracks but perform very well at left handed tracks may underperform at a right handed track and then improve on that form back left handed...
I don't think that's bias lad. I think that's just the facts and the conditions of the two races, with a it of common sense added.
But you know I've had a few beers and I'm not in a great mood
Whatever you want to say about queens brook, she is rated 144 and a solid horse. Tomorrow brandy will be giving her 9lbs, on seasonal debut, going right handed. There are 12 obstacles in the race, IF she jumps wildly to her left again, and loses even 1 length doing this at each obstacle (could easily be more), then brandy could have to run to a mark of about 166 to win if queens brook runs her race. Given that she won’t necessarily have to run to such a mark to win the mares, I struggle to see how she “needs” to win tomorrow to be a serious cheltenham candidate. I’ll be hoping she does win, but if the race plays out anything like I’ve described above and she loses narrowly, her chances are not dented in any way at all imo.
I'm making an excuse that a horse proven to hang left at right handed tracks but perform very well at left handed tracks may underperform at a right handed track and then improve on that form back left handed...
I don't think that's bias lad. I think that's just the facts and the conditions of the two races, with a it of common sense added.
But you know I've had a few beers and I'm not in a great mood
Having an excuse ready before it happens is an odd way of going about it.
We're talking about a hot renewal of the Mares Hurdle.
For me, anything but a win tomorrow, then I won't think Brandy Love is good enough... I would expect Honeysuckle, Marie's Rock, Epatante ... all to give Queen's Brook 9lbs and a beating.
I've backed Brandy Love, I hope she wins...but if she doesn't, I won't be expecting her to win and won't make excuses, that's all
Sick all over the place when Queen's Brook wins tomorrow and everyone gives Brandy Love the 'moral' victory.
The sad thing is, she won't drift.
That Coral Cup entries don't scream confidence to me
.....and yes I have backed Brandy Love, and no I haven't backed Queen's Brook..... just living in the real world where anything but a win is not good enough.
Queen's Brook will be an also-ran in this years Mares Hurdle.
My thoughts entirely. Also a BL backer and won't see any positives if she's beat .
Having an excuse ready before it happens is an odd way of going about it.
We're talking about a hot renewal of the Mares Hurdle.
For me, anything but a win tomorrow, then I won't think Brandy Love is good enough... I would expect Honeysuckle, Marie's Rock, Epatante ... all to give Queen's Brook 9lbs and a beating.
I've backed Brandy Love, I hope she wins...but if she doesn't, I won't be expecting her to win and won't make excuses, that's all
Enjoy your beers.
Not to reply on Benjys behalf, but It’s not really an excuse though is it? It’s just having an idea in your head of what you’d find an acceptable/unacceptable level of performance from an ante post cheltenham bet before their first run of the season, which we think about before all of our selections run?
personally my opinion before the race is run is pretty much the same as benjys, that if she jumps relatively straight but doesn’t win I’d be disappointed despite the weight concession, but if she hangs off across the track the whole way around which we know there’s a fair chance she could do going by prior evidence, but still only loses narrowly I wouldn’t be that disappointed, as it wouldn’t be hard at all to see how she can improve a bundle back left handed?
as for expecting Marie’s rock to give queens brook 9lbs and a beating, she beat her by under 2l last year off level weights, I think it’s fair to say that if she was conceding Qb 9lbs and race fitness, and didn’t like racing left handed, that maybe that would have cost her 1.75 lengths?
Not to reply on Benjys behalf, but It’s not really an excuse though is it? It’s just having an idea in your head of what you’d find an acceptable/unacceptable level of performance from an ante post cheltenham bet before their first run of the season, which we think about before all of our selections run?
personally my opinion before the race is run is pretty much the same as benjys, that if she jumps relatively straight but doesn’t win I’d be disappointed despite the weight concession, but if she hangs off across the track the whole way around which we know there’s a fair chance she could do going by prior evidence, but still only loses narrowly I wouldn’t be that disappointed, as it wouldn’t be hard at all to see how she can improve a bundle back left handed?
as for expecting Marie’s rock to give queens brook 9lbs and a beating, she beat her by under 2l last year off level weights, I think it’s fair to say that if she was conceding Qb 9lbs and race fitness, and didn’t like racing left handed, that maybe that would have cost her 1.75 lengths?
Yep, unless BL is a horse that is best fresh after a long lay off, then of course she would be expected to improve for a run.
Add to that she’s going the wrong way round for her, then any performance that sees her close at the finish today should not affect her chances in March imo.
Having checked, she does run well after a long lay off so may not improve as much as some would, maybe not at all!!
But she will improve for going the other way round I would think.
Anyway, if I were a backer I would not be too down if she noticeably lost ground during the race today with her jumping, and finished close up.
It's QB I have the issue with. She's ran 3 times this season, all odds on, and has been beaten twice. Once by a 117 horse. She just looks very slow. She's 8 now and looks to have regressed to me. Even accounting for BL's waywardness, If she's going to be good enough to beat the likes of Honeysuckle, Epatante and an improved Love Envoi again then I'd be expecting her to give QB the weight and a beating today.
Having an excuse ready before it happens is an odd way of going about it.
We're talking about a hot renewal of the Mares Hurdle.
For me, anything but a win tomorrow, then I won't think Brandy Love is good enough... I would expect Honeysuckle, Marie's Rock, Epatante ... all to give Queen's Brook 9lbs and a beating.
I've backed Brandy Love, I hope she wins...but if she doesn't, I won't be expecting her to win and won't make excuses, that's all
Enjoy your beers.
If any of the above had displayed her crazy jumping to the left in their previous race right handed- i think there would be a bit more caution on them giving her a beating on a reappearance also.
Queens Brook ran well in her 2nd last year in this against MR- she's no slouch at her best. 144 + 149 rprs at today's track.
No doubt this year's will probably taking more winning though...
It's QB I have the issue with. She's ran 3 times this season, all odds on, and has been beaten twice. Once by a 117 horse. She just looks very slow. She's 8 now and looks to have regressed to me. Even accounting for BL's waywardness, If she's going to be good enough to beat the likes of Honeysuckle, Epatante and an improved Love Envoi again then I'd be expecting her to give QB the weight and a beating today.
Gordon has stated how much it takes her to get fit- so first time up isn't her true form really is it. 149 + 145 rprs since, not a slouch.
Tricky race today. BL certainly must come on for the run regardless of the result but 4 races for QB this early in the campaign must be deemed a negative regardless of the fitness edge
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