2023 Mares Novice Hurdle

[Outlaw]

Poor old Cillians Charm, got an RPR of 124 on same day course and distance in a maiden hurdle.
Carrying 11st 12lb, nearly a stone more than the mare and only 6 seconds slower and in a faster time than GW.
I know she might not have crossed the line as easy, but still....

The times on that day were all 40 seconds or so slower than standard.

The final insult.
Premier queen (11st 8lb) got 126 RPR having ran on the course in the fourth race, a lowly 94 rated handicapper (2 seconds slower than GW) but won by 30 lengths hard held.

Fucking bunch of guessers.

All to try and justify Gw getting a silly rating based on literal beatings of horses running nowhere near their rating. Makes even less sense when factoring in other races on the card.
Day and night put up the best figures on the card as mentioned the other day "6 seconds" is getting on for 25L on that ground and she put 20L between that maiden from the 3rd last to the 2nd last. Her rating is a closer to the mark than GW thou everything looks very optimistic admittedly.

Connections of the runner up to Day and night must be hoping the capper takes a dimmer view of it all, two stone higher than previous two runs, not what you need on your final hcap marker run .

[Quevega]

All to try and justify Gw getting a silly rating based on literal beatings of horses running nowhere near their rating. Makes even less sense when factoring in other races on the card.
Day and night put up the best figures on the card as mentioned the other day "6 seconds" is getting on for 25L on that ground and she put 20L between that maiden from the 3rd last to the 2nd last. Her rating is a closer to the mark than GW thou everything looks very optimistic admittedly.

Yeah, you can kind of go with her rating a little bit, even though she had the fresh ground and carried a lot less weight.
But the easy handicapper winner is basically finishing second to GW hard held, eased down, and she's rated 94 (now 106).
I know they have to guess a little bit, but this sort of comparison should help place some perspective on how much they are inflating RPR's based on reputation and feelings.

And that's not science is it ?
Maurice ?

[Outlaw]

Yeah, you can kind of go with her rating a little bit, even though she had the fresh ground and carried a lot less weight.
But the easy handicapper winner is basically finishing second to GW hard held, eased down, and she's rated 94 (now 106).
I know they have to guess a little bit, but this sort of comparison should help place some perspective on how much they are inflating RPR's based on reputation and feelings.

And that's not science is it ?
Maurice ?

I would of had her half a stone lower personally, that last race was dire and fair play to the capper "only giving her 10" that would of been a stone+ over here no doubt about it with only her seemingly running her race and handling conditions well.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

There could be something to it, but it is Nicky Henderson we’re talking about, he’s always ultra cautious and a bad scope the week of a race is probably more than enough for him to withdraw.

From Henderson’s Unibet blog

”
There’s no significant news concerning Luccia other than the fact that after scoping dirty she is now a lot, lot better so we are now thinking about where to go next. In an ideal world I would liked to have got two more runs into her before Cheltenham but we are starting to run out of time so it might be the case that she goes there having had just one more run over hurdles.”

[Saxon Warrior]

Jesus, anyone expecting that ?
Saxon Warrior will be beside himself.

Let's not forget that's today rating, it could easily change...

I am beside myself.

Looking at the 10 year RPRs Diary he's currently top of the charts for this seasons novices, 3lb above Fscile Vega and Hermes Allen and a whopping 9lb above Impaire Et Passe.

All much shorter than him in the betting for the Supreme or Ballymore.

Also as a 5yo should he win or place in the Supreme, he will be the highest RPR rated 5yo pre Supreme since Jezki (a decade ago) to place/win the race.

As for the Ballymore, he would be the highest rated (pre-race) 5yo to win/place in it since The New One, if he were to do so in March.

As for Night And Day she is 2nd best in the MNH ratings at 140, behind Harmonya Maker's 142.

Easily High enough (pre-race) to win the last two or three MNH.

Been waiting 3 days for these ratings, and noted on Wenesday that Night And Day had a really high Topspeed for her debut, higher than anything else in the MNH betting a.t.m.

Clonmel could have witnessed a couple of Cheltenham big players this week.

Anyone with Hcap bets on Gaelic Warrior at Cheltenham may need to consider their position, I think.

He was officially BHA rated 144 before his Clonmel win, so the M.Pipe will be out of the equation now.

Ruby Walsh said on Road to Cheltenham last night that it would be the Supreme or Ballymore for Gaelic Warrior, depending on what Facile Vega does at the DRF.

If FV bolted up then he would likely be the Supreme hose and Gaelic would head for the Ballymore

or vice-versa if Facile Vega didnt bolt up/win and looked more a stayer.

[Mighty]

If FV bolted up then he would likely be the Supreme hose and Gaelic would head for the Ballymore

or vice-versa if Facile Vega didnt bolt up/win and looked more a stayer.

I know the markets have solidified with FV Supreme, but if there was that switcheroo, the markets might have got it wrong. On PP the GW Supreme, FV Ballymore double pays 220/1. A point on that for insurance might be worth it…?

[Saxon Warrior]

I know the markets have solidified with FV Supreme, but if there was that switcheroo, the markets might have got it wrong. On PP the GW Supreme, FV Ballymore double pays 220/1. A point on that for insurance might be worth it…?

Seems silly not to, doesn’t it?

[Lobos]

From Henderson’s Unibet blog

”
There’s no significant news concerning Luccia other than the fact that after scoping dirty she is now a lot, lot better so we are now thinking about where to go next. In an ideal world I would liked to have got two more runs into her before Cheltenham but we are starting to run out of time so it might be the case that she goes there having had just one more run over hurdles.”

Doesn't scream ultra positive but at least she's back.

[Lobos]

I know the markets have solidified with FV Supreme, but if there was that switcheroo, the markets might have got it wrong. On PP the GW Supreme, FV Ballymore double pays 220/1. A point on that for insurance might be worth it…?

Worth a pound of anyone's money. A few more surprises yet no doubt.

[nortonscoin200]

Worth a pound of anyone's money. A few more surprises yet no doubt.

I'm in .

Gaelic Warrior sticking to two miles so far and FV not looking the world-beater that Willie thinks he is so far this season means things could yet be turned upside-down and 220-1 is worth the risk.

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm in .

Gaelic Warrior sticking to two miles so far and FV not looking the world-beater that Willie thinks he is so far this season means things could yet be turned upside-down and 220-1 is worth the risk.

Couldn't see Willie sending gaelic to the Supreme as his main bullet

Was facile to step up, impaire et passe would likely be in the Supreme and Paul would be riding him judging by the stable vibes

[nortonscoin200]

Couldn't see Willie sending gaelic to the Supreme as his main bullet

Was facile to step up, impaire et passe would likely be in the Supreme and Paul would be riding him judging by the stable vibes

So does GW go to the Ballymore or as a second string in the Supreme - I'd see either of these options more likely than a handicap.

[FinalFurlong91]

So does GW go to the Ballymore or as a second string in the Supreme - I'd see either of these options more likely than a handicap.

So would I

I'd struggle to see him winning any of them given his proclivity for going right handed

He'd need to be a monster to win a grade 1 at the festival going left handed

And that he's run at tramore and clonmel, not in any recognised trials also makes me doubt him compared to facile and IEP

[Lobos]

So does GW go to the Ballymore or as a second string in the Supreme - I'd see either of these options more likely than a handicap.

At the current rate he'll be rated 170+ come the Festival so Handicaps are out !

[FinalFurlong91]

At the current rate he'll be rated 170+ come the Festival so Handicaps are out !

Champion hurdle it is then

Constitution who?