2023 Bumper

[Studfarm254]

I'm told Cheltenham not currently the plan for DIAYT 'as things stand'

Plans could change though.

Any word on Irish panther?

[darlojim]

Any word on Irish panther?

Not one I asked about mate

[OffTheBridle]

I have Fact To File as potentially his best. Also, Willie's best bumper runner going into the Champion Bumper has tended to run at the DRF: Facile Vega, Kilcruit, Appreciate It, Blackbow. This year, his best could be one of ten though. I think he's keeping CDS away because he is awkward, like he did with Ferny.

Ya they tend to go DRF. I can be corrected on this but I remember in prior seasons anyway the DRF bumper has more prize money then the cheltenham champion bumper

[Quevega]

I think this thread should be closed off.
It's like one of the pharmacies in the US with people queuing round the block for opiods.

I gave a stranger a hand job today and have now backed another in the bumper today myself

[HesTheOne]

Just one more hit can’t hurt

[Eggs]

….CDS beaten in the same Leopardstown Bumper as Ferny Hollow. Be interesting where he goes next, especially if it’s the same race Ferny won before taking the CB.

[HesTheOne]

A horse pulling to side so much like CDS how straightforward is that to correct?

[EnvoiAlien]

A horse pulling to side so much like CDS how straightforward is that to correct?

Totally depends on why they're doing it,if there's a physical reason it can be fixed,if it's an experience issue it can be fixed,if it's neither of those then it can be complicated to work out of them.

[The Giant Bolster]

From Saxon Warrior's work I make it that 11 of Mullins 42 bumper runners have debuted from January onwards with results of:

3
4
11
11
2
1
3
4
2
13
1

So we may still see some decent contenders emerge. I suspect though it will be hard to separate them. For example, there is a decent chance It's For Me wins on debut in his bumper with a solid RPR but then so will a few others.

Down Royal (for Elliott) and Leopardstown at Xmas (for Mullins) seem to be where you may get a sense of stable pecking order which is then helped by the DRF. But we've been spoilt in recent years by the certainty they've provided. Around that we could see others emerge and it's going to be hard to separate a Relegate from a Five Bar Brian. Personally it's wrong footed me a bit this season but I may now just tweak my position around the DRF but try to hold my nerve then to the Festival itself.

[DenmanSacre]

I think people are overcomplicating this race believing Willie must have the winner.

Fascile Mode has won the best bumper ran so far this season pretty impressively and in a good time. He will win at the DRF then win at Cheltenham. If he was trained by Willie Mullins and won as he did at Leopardstown, he'd be a ridiculously short priced favourite.

Instead the market is headed by a Mullins boat that wouldn't beat the Elliott horse if they meet again.

[Exar Essay]

I think people are overcomplicating this race believing Willie must have the winner.

Fascile Mode has won the best bumper ran so far this season pretty impressively and in a good time. He will win at the DRF then win at Cheltenham. If he was trained by Willie Mullins and won as he did at Leopardstown, he'd be a ridiculously short priced favourite.

Instead the market is headed by a Mullins boat that wouldn't beat the Elliott horse if they meet again.

I agree to an extent. Think he was very good. And yes, he’d be 4/1 if trained by Mullins. But wouldn’t be anywhere near certain he’s the winner.

The thing that puts me off is what’s in behind. Lecky Watson and Special Cadeau. And he was getting 7lbs.

Theres so many excuses out there too. The ride on DIAYT. The distance for Irish Panther. The nutcase that is Westport Cove. CDS having a mare. Fact to File taking a while to pick up off the bridle. All things which complicate the picture.

PS. What a view on CDS!!

[DenmanSacre]

I agree to an extent. Think he was very good. And yes, he’d be 4/1 if trained by Mullins. But wouldn’t be anywhere near certain he’s the winner.

The thing that puts me off is what’s in behind. Lecky Watson and Special Cadeau. And he was getting 7lbs.

Theres so many excuses out there too. The ride on DIAYT. The distance for Irish Panther. The nutcase that is Westport Cove. CDS having a mare. Fact to File taking a while to pick up off the bridle. All things which complicate the picture.

PS. What a view on CDS!!

DIAYT is a danger but others have said this isn't currently the plan.

Irish Panther lost a slowly run 2m4 race that he had the chance to win and couldn't. I don't think he's a player here. Fact to File took an age to get up to speed to win that. He may be better with a better run race but the PP market for the DRF suggests he isn't turning up or the Mullins camp don't fancy him.

Westport Cove beat Faulty, who has been beaten by King of Kingsfield and Lucky Lyreen similar distances. That isn't Champion Bumper winning form. Possibly he could improve.

I don't see the obsession with CDS on Twitter and with some on here - it's either based on Patrick's comments and/or the prices they've got for him.

Patrick was allowed essentially a free lead on CDS and led at a slow pace. The others swamp him and he loses his position. He looked a bit awkward after that and looked to rally once out wide but Better Days Ahead travelled like a much better horse, put the race to bed and coasted home. CDS seemed to lack tactical speed to me and couldn't get through the gears fast enough when the race heated up.

Patrick may have given him a bad ride but that seems much more common this year than previous years.

With Fascile Mode, he was getting 7 pounds from most of them but he won pretty easily and had to come out very wide to make his challenge. Never raced before and looks to me to have much more scope than the others in that race to improve again.

[ComplyOrDie]

I don't see the obsession with CDS on Twitter and with some on here - it's either based on Patrick's comments and/or the prices they've got for him.

I imagine the same was said by many about Ferny Hollow, if not after his first defeat then most definitely after his second. We know how that ended, and with this not looking a vintage year (yet) it could just be the case that something like that happens again.

[DenmanSacre]

I imagine the same was said by many about Ferny Hollow, if not after his first defeat then most definitely after his second. We know how that ended, and with this not looking a vintage year (yet) it could just be the case that something like that happens again.

I don't really see the similarities tbh.

Ferny travelled like the best horse in his first bumper. He came wide (I don't know if Patrick wanted this or the horse just came wide) and Eric Bloodaxe stayed on the rail and steamed home. Ferny was slightly green approaching where the last hurdle was.

Fernys 2nd run was when he was extra keen and Patrick has had to go from the front. Again Ferny travelled like the best horse in the race. The others are at it turning for home. Forged in Fire comes up besides him and Patrick tries to give him a shove to move clear but doesn't. He gets a strike a furlong from home and is ridden from then and Forged in Fire outbattles him.

In his 3rd bumper Ferny has now learned how to settle properly and wins very easily. In the Champion Bumper, he's then settled near the back again and he produces the goods.

Looking at CDS, he did not travel like the best horse in his race and looked to lack that gear change for me. Watching Ferny you could see there was a smart horse in there. I didn't get the same feeling from CDS.

[Exar Essay]

DenmanSacre Fair points. I think Irish Panther was unlucky. He didn’t want to be in front when he was. The leader dropped off very early. He’ll get plenty of cover in a Champion Bumper.

CDS … I can’t take anything from his form. He was very difficult to ride. Like staggeringly so. Maybe he is a difficult ride full stop in which case he won’t be very good. Maybe it was a one off. 7/1 is no price to find out, but on raw talent I’d have him right there. I thought he finished very quickly implying once the penny dropped (or rather he wasn't trying to pull right) he had pace.