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Ferny Hollow ran in the same Fairyhouse bumper as Chapeau De Soleil - and Ferny's performance was more than a stone better than CDS. It put him bang in the mix with the best bumper horses of the past decade.
Compare the two on debut:
FERNY HOLLOW gave Eric Bloodaxe 3lbs and was beaten two-and-a-half lengths.
The time was 4mins 0.4secs on yielding to soft ground. The race was 1 second quicker than Envoi Allen (carried 1lb more) in the Royal Bond the same day.
Ferny Hollow earned a 128 rpr. Eric Bloodaxe was given 131.
CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL was beaten just over 3 lengths by Better Days Ahead off level weights.
The time was 4mins 31 secs on soft ground. The race was more than 21 seconds slower than Marine Nationale (carried 5lbs more) in the Royal Bond.
Chapeau De Soleil earned a 112rpr. Better Days Ahead got 120.
Love em or hate em, bumper debut rprs are pretty important in trying to pick the winner of the Champion Bumper in March - specially in recent years.
The last 4 winners have all posted at least 128 on debut. It doesn't guarantee victory but that's what is needed to be in the mix.
Facile Vega 128
Sir Gerhard 131
Ferny Hollow 128
Envoi Allen 131
Relegate 99
Fayonagh 81
Ballyandy 102
MoonRacer 118 from previous season, 131 on bumper debut in season he won CB)
Silver Concorde 111
Briar Hill 115
Champagne Fever 126
It's possible to argue the last 4 winners of the CB have all been exceptional - and we're about due another winner who posted a modest debut rpr.
But with the amount of money being spent on top French horses and PTP horses I'd have thought the standard of the CB will only go up.
So Chapeau De Soleil at 11-1 - no thanks. Reckon he should be almost double those odds right now.
That time is a nonsense though. They stood still as the tapes went up and then walked for a furlong or two. It basically turned into a sprint.
Not sure any NH horse would be seen to beat effect in those circumstances.
Ferny Hollow ran in the same Fairyhouse bumper as Chapeau De Soleil - and Ferny's performance was more than a stone better than CDS. It put him bang in the mix with the best bumper horses of the past decade.
Compare the two on debut:
FERNY HOLLOW gave Eric Bloodaxe 3lbs and was beaten two-and-a-half lengths.
The time was 4mins 0.4secs on yielding to soft ground. The race was 1 second quicker than Envoi Allen (carried 1lb more) in the Royal Bond the same day.
Ferny Hollow earned a 128 rpr. Eric Bloodaxe was given 131.
CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL was beaten just over 3 lengths by Better Days Ahead off level weights.
The time was 4mins 31 secs on soft ground. The race was more than 21 seconds slower than Marine Nationale (carried 5lbs more) in the Royal Bond.
Chapeau De Soleil earned a 112rpr. Better Days Ahead got 120.
Love em or hate em, bumper debut rprs are pretty important in trying to pick the winner of the Champion Bumper in March - specially in recent years.
The last 4 winners have all posted at least 128 on debut. It doesn't guarantee victory but that's what is needed to be in the mix.
Facile Vega 128
Sir Gerhard 131
Ferny Hollow 128
Envoi Allen 131
Relegate 99
Fayonagh 81
Ballyandy 102
MoonRacer 118 from previous season, 131 on bumper debut in season he won CB)
Silver Concorde 111
Briar Hill 115
Champagne Fever 126
It's possible to argue the last 4 winners of the CB have all been exceptional - and we're about due another winner who posted a modest debut rpr.
But with the amount of money being spent on top French horses and PTP horses I'd have thought the standard of the CB will only go up.
So Chapeau De Soleil at 11-1 - no thanks. Reckon he should be almost double those odds right now.
Fair play Nortons.. a very reasoned and conclusive response! As you allude to though, it is possible to say the last 4 winners were exceptional. CdS's debut run would therefore be better than 4 of the previous 5 winners before that, so its hard to be certain that RPR's for debut runs are particularly important.
Personally, Im always very wary of using times in races of this nature, there are so many factors that make them unreliable.
Im really looking forward to seeing the horse again and would be very confident he will reverse form with the winner. I was really surprised how he finished considering how he raced the whole way round.
Fair enough Faugheen_Machine - but that rpr is still a long way from where you'd expect it to be if we've just seen the CB winner.
Hope you are well and look forward to hopefully seeing you in that spot beside the weighing room next March.
The RPR will be partly based around the time of the race though, so you could mark it up based on the argument that the time is nonsense. How much you or anyone else mark it up is obviously open to opinion, as are most things in racing.
I'm certainly willing to give Chapeau De Soleil another chance, even more so at a left handed track, if he doesn't win next time out then I could understand the reservations, for sure.
Personally, Im always very wary of using times in races of this nature, there are so many factors that make them unreliable.
Yea NH racing and comparing race times is very subjective compared to the flat. You look long enough you’ll find what you want to see.
On paper FV ran a slow time in his maiden hurdle and put up an rpr129; nothing crazy but you still wouldn’t lay him given what we know. Really no two NH races are the same, they aren’t running in like for like fields with the exact same race pace and opposition tactics.There’s too many factors that make up that time in NH racing.The bumpers too are often ran slow and standoffish.
Edit - On that times/rpr; Gaelic Warrior posted a 150 rpr in his 2m maiden. Is he really 21 pounds better off than FV? Would Clonsutton think that’s the right balance between them two?
Last edited by HesTheOne; 12 December 2022, 01:10 PM.
The RPR will be partly based around the time of the race though, so you could mark it up based on the argument that the time is nonsense. How much you or anyone else mark it up is obviously open to opinion, as are most things in racing.
I'm certainly willing to give Chapeau De Soleil another chance, even more so at a left handed track, if he doesn't win next time out then I could understand the reservations, for sure.
Worth noting ferny was beaten twice, so maybe even if CDS does too, wouldn't write off, in theory. Obviously depends on the manner of defeat.
I myself had Ferny at big prices but had completely written him off and when he won I couldn't remember if had actually had him backed him still. Luckily it was a bet that I couldn't cash out and completely forget/dismissed.
I'm not sure that Willie ever has THE bumper horse to go to Cheltenham. More like half a dozen A horse to go there. He's won 4 of the last 5 editions with 4 different jockeys.
Agreed - and at 15/8, 2/1, 11/1 and 25/1 SPs
With 35%, 35%, 13% and 22% of the field being trained by him respectively
More on the importance (or otherwise) of debut rprs in determining the Champion Bumper winner. If you're mightily bored of the topic I apologise and please look away now.
But I wanted to find out if the last four winners - who each posted a debut rpr of at least 128 - really were exceptional in their year.
I think the answer has a pretty important bearing on whether CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL (rpr 112 with excuses) really should be 10-1 joint favourite and is in with a live chance of being top dog.
Here are the debut rprs posted by the top 4 finishers in the Champion Bumper in each of the last 6 years (could have gone back further but even I was starting to get bored):
2022
1 Facile Vega 128
2 American Mike 126
3 James's Gate 115
4 Seabank Bistro 121
2021
1 Sir Gerhard 131
2 Kilcruit 123
3 Elle Est Belle 120 (+7lbs for mares allowance)
4 Three Stripe Life 127
2020
1 Ferny Hollow 128
2 Appreciate It 129
3 Queens Brook 123 (+7lbs)
4 Third Time Lucki 110
2019
1 Envoi Allen 131
2 Blue Sari 126 (+ 4-yr-olds allowance)
3 Thyme Hill 111
4 Abacadabras 113
Even if you bump him up 10lbs - due to extenuating circumstances on debut - an rpr of 122 wouldn't have got him in to the top two in any of the last 4 years.
The stats also show that it wasn't only the winners in the last 4 years who posted some big numbers on debut.
Basically unless your horse posted a debut rpr in the 120s you were looking at a third or fourth place finish at best - and half of those spots were taken by nags who posted in the 120s on debut.
It certainly looks as though the overall standard of horses contesting the Champion Bumper has risen in recent years.
It's not been the case that in each of the last four years one freak performer has won the race. It's more a case of better class horses giving the field more strength in depth.
And in betting terms that means any horse who starts off on the back of the starting grid with a pretty mediocre debut rpr faces an uphill task to find the improvement necessary to pass so many talented bumper recruits.
Well that's how I see it.
I'm really not trying to bang the drum again to support my argument that Chapeau De Soleil is going to struggle to do anything better than place.
But this is one race in particular that seems to me to be very much driven by stats which makes it easier for us to rule out an awful lot of contenders who will in all probability have very little chance of making an impact in March.
Again it's my contention that we haven't seen next year's Champion Bumper winner on the track yet - nothing has so far posted high enough numbers.
And it just seems inevitable that with all the talent at Willie, Gordon and maybe Henry (Barry The Butcher ?) 's disposal some horses are going to post rprs in the high 120s on debut.
Last edited by nortonscoin200; 13 December 2022, 02:05 PM.
Worth noting ferny was beaten twice, so maybe even if CDS does too, wouldn't write off, in theory. Obviously depends on the manner of defeat.
I myself had Ferny at big prices but had completely written him off and when he won I couldn't remember if had actually had him backed him still. Luckily it was a bet that I couldn't cash out and completely forget/dismissed.
Funny game at times.
Though is worth noting Ferny is a bit of a statistical outlier. Last ten years most of the winners are unbeaten, and if defeated have lost once. Ferny the only winner with more than one 2 to his name
Great work nortonscoin200 but as your previous efforts confirmed, before the run of hot winners four of the five previous winners all recorded lower RPRs than Chapeau de Soleil.
I like trends and tend to have a sneak at whether the dynamics of a specific race is changing, but for me we've just had four very good horses and three of them were Cheveley Park owned, which may mean absolutely nothing, but they know a thing or two about horses and may well have entered the NH scene with a specific purchasing plan with certain targets.
And, I think CDS will have learnt plenty from his debut, his next run will be crucial for me in determining his abilities by which time the 10/1 may well be long gone...
nortonscoin200 Is it worth considering yesterday's interesting topic of the Racing Post's after timing in changing RPR's? I wonder how many of those high 120's + were scored in the aftermath and how many were amended following a good win in the Champion Bumper or elsewhere. A horse I am following for a potential handicap had his sceond run bumped 8pts yesterday for no reason. He's not run since and noone has franked the form.
Say CDS and BDA both win comfortably over Xmas and score ~ 135, I'd wager CDS run would be upgraded to the low 120s.
Last edited by Exar Essay; 13 December 2022, 10:59 AM.
I noticed that Firefox is declared to run in a bumper at Naas on Thursday. Would he still be eligible to run in the Champion Bumper having run in a maiden hurdle?
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