November ‘22 Yankee

[Istabraq]

In that case, how about a Paul Nicholls Yankee?

I think you meant to post that in the Aintree thread…

[Faugheen_Machine]

In that case, how about a Paul Nicholls Yankee?

We could start with Hitman for the Ryanair

[Dandrew99]

I assume you mean Mares Novice Exar Essay ?

Like the idea of a longshot Ew Yankee, feel like we are always stretching to find a theme with these, just go for the ones we like and screw who trains them.

Walking on Air and Conflated look like awesome bets at 50/1, so +1 for them

[Brooksie]

I assume you mean Mares Novice Exar Essay ?

Like the idea of a longshot Ew Yankee, feel like we are always stretching to find a theme with these, just go for the ones we like and screw who trains them.

Walking on Air and Conflated look like awesome bets at 50/1, so +1 for them

Could be a good idea for the December yankee, finding 4 EW selections before the Christmas festivals kick off at 25/1 or bigger.

[Exar Essay]

I assume you mean Mares Novice Exar Essay ?

Like the idea of a longshot Ew Yankee, feel like we are always stretching to find a theme with these, just go for the ones we like and screw who trains them.

Walking on Air and Conflated look like awesome bets at 50/1, so +1 for them

That I did

[JamieSensible]

Could be a good idea for the December yankee, finding 4 EW selections before the Christmas festivals kick off at 25/1 or bigger.

I still wouldn't be against Tekao at a price, it was only his second race and he's now out to a huge price.

[Eggs]

….Okeedokee, I’ll start a thread for the December ‘long shot’ Yankee with no trainer restriction. Post your thoughts in there & keep the ideas coming here for the leading trainer selections.

[AaronLad]

I think now that we are nearing the end of November we should have enough information at our disposal to be nailing 4 guaranteed targets, presuming the horse stays fit and well until march.There's nothing worse than having a yankee in march ruined by a horse or 2 you've picked in the wrong race or they didn't even turn up. With the theme of 1 horse from each of the big 4 trainers that narrows our pool of horses down, but it narrows it down to most likely winners due to their trainers. So horses which look to have clear targets, and IMO good chances

Queens Brook - Mares Hurdle - Elliott
Elimay - Mares Chase - WPM
Chris's Dream - Hunters chase - De Bromhead
Luccia - Mares novice - Henderson

[Garrison Savannah]

Think Chris’s Dream will be over bet simply due to name recognition so value not there. Also, how many of these horses that have run under rules before going hunter chasing towards the end of their careers have been successful?

If we’re choosing hunter chasers for a Yankee I’d rather get a young improver in the book.

[AaronLad]

Think Chris’s Dream will be over bet simply due to name recognition so value not there. Also, how many of these horses that have run under rules before going hunter chasing towards the end of their careers have been successful?

If we’re choosing hunter chasers for a Yankee I’d rather get a young improver in the book.

Young improver for a race notorious for winners aged 10+ ?
Not sure many have tried as highly rated as Chris's dream, so without having a bit of time on my hands I am unable to answer your first question.

[Istabraq]

Young improver for a race notorious for winners aged 10+ ?
Not sure many have tried as highly rated as Chris's dream, so without having a bit of time on my hands I am unable to answer your first question.

That is a new trend and confounded by a pair of back to back winners but historically this race was often won by young horses who then progress through the professional ranks, the likes of Kingscliff, Castle Mane, Cappa Bleu, Rushing Wild all came through here.
But trends change/evolve all the time and maybe this is a race to keep an eye on rather than assume progressive youngsters are the automatic answer...

[nortonscoin200]

This is not my usual kind of bet.

And I doubt it'll find much favour here because the prices are so skinny.

But with so much uncertainty over who goes where - and with many fancied horses still to reappear - I feel this is a very practical solution that does have two big advantages.

All 4 horses have already proved their well-being by running well this season - and they each have a clearly defined target race.

Not that it makes any difference but the bet also happens to give us a runner on each day of the Festival if they all make it to the Cotswolds in March.

1pt win yankee CONSTITUTION HILL (CH) 4-7, DELTA WORK (XC) 2-1, LUCCIA (MNH) 9-2 and L'HOMME PRESSE (GC) 7-1 returns 582pts with 365.

I've just done this one as a 1pt win roll-up to return 207pts and did a similar bet substituting JONBON for Constitution Hill for a 396-1 return.

But if you look at horses who have already run this season I reckon this quartet is about the most solid available right now - and even though the return wouldn't be life-changing it could go a long way to ensuring people make a profit rather than a loss at the Fez.

Constitution Hill looks bullet-proof, enough said.

Luccia looks like a star in the making posting a debut hurdling rpr which matched Honeysuckle at the same age.

L'Homme Presse will love the sort of scrap you often get in the Gold Cup. He's a young stayer with Festival form, boxes ticked.

And I thought Delta Work showed a tremendous attitude on his reappearance over the banks at Punchestown. Looks a worthy XC favourite to follow-up in a field where I don't expect Galvin to show up.

Toyed with the idea of having Jonbon instead of Constitution Hill to boost the odds (win roll-up pays 396-1 and I've had a tickle on that too). He certainly looks good enough to win an Arkle. But it's a race where there are still a lot of variables in play.

Minella Indo is also a decent each way shout at 40-1 for the GC but I think it's the wrong time to back him.

If he makes his seasonal debut in the Savillls over Christmas I'd expect him to be beaten - which wouldn't worry me - and the price will hopefully drift.

[Quevega]

This is not my usual kind of bet.

And I doubt it'll find much favour here because the prices are so skinny.

But with so much uncertainty over who goes where - and with many fancied horses still to reappear - I feel this is a very practical solution that does have two big advantages.

All 4 horses have already proved their well-being by running well this season - and they each have a clearly defined target race.

Not that it makes any difference but the bet also happens to give us a runner on each day of the Festival if they all make it to the Cotswolds in March.

1pt win yankee CONSTITUTION HILL (CH) 4-7, DELTA WORK (XC) 2-1, LUCCIA (MNH) 9-2 and L'HOMME PRESSE (GC) 7-1 returns 582pts with 365.

I've just done this one as a 1pt win roll-up to return 207pts and did a similar bet substituting JONBON for Constitution Hill for a 396-1 return.

But if you look at horses who have already run this season I reckon this quartet is about the most solid available right now - and even though the return wouldn't be life-changing it could go a long way to ensuring people make a profit rather than a loss at the Fez.

Constitution Hill looks bullet-proof, enough said.

Luccia looks like a star in the making posting a debut hurdling rpr which matched Honeysuckle at the same age.

L'Homme Presse will love the sort of scrap you often get in the Gold Cup. He's a young stayer with Festival form, boxes ticked.

And I thought Delta Work showed a tremendous attitude on his reappearance over the banks at Punchestown. Looks a worthy XC favourite to follow-up in a field where I don't expect Galvin to show up.

Toyed with the idea of having Jonbon instead of Constitution Hill to boost the odds (win roll-up pays 396-1 and I've had a tickle on that too)and he certainly looks good enough to win an Arkle. But it's a race where there are still a lot of variables in play.

Minella Indo is also a decent each way shout at 40-1 for the GC but I think it's the wrong time to back him.

If he makes his seasonal debut in the Savillls over Christmas I'd expect him to be beaten - which wouldn't worry me - and the price will hopefully drift.

The problem I'd have with this type of bet is purely the value, and the risk with all yankees this far out of all 4 not lining up.
Let's face it a yankee of favorites on the day is nigh impossible to get up, never mind when they've all had one run and we're 4 months away.
A similar bet with the NRNB facility makes much more sense, even at likely shorter odds, as you'll get the roll over.

We should all realise by now that after an impressive performance by a (big name) for want of a better phrase, the bookies tend to overly shorten for relatively small liabilities in the whole scheme of things. And more often than not this is not balanced out by making others in the market a bigger price.
Therefore, something's not right. They are basically taking advantage of the FOMO plague that ravages antepost portfolios.

I know on occasions the hype and massive fall in odds is merited in the end, and you get a pay off even if taking so called "under value prices" - but it's easy to remember the one's that do vs all the other's that go astray.

Don't get me wrong - all 4 have the potential to go off shorter on the day, but a lot would have to happen in your favour for this to be the case.

Constitution Hill very likely to go off shorter, but not if Honeysuckle still looks good in her 2 preps, and if he's shorter anyway (who cares ? from a yankee perspective as he's already 4/7)

Delta Work might do, but this race often provides a ringer from somewhere, and even without that his next run might not be a serious one, so could mean his price remains steady.

Luccia looked very good and the RPR was very good, but they swap and change these ratings to suit IMO so from one run over hurdles I'd be more inclined to be cautious. especially as the Irish are often strong in this race and we've yet to see plenty, in the graded mares races over there.

L'homme press won a handicap and for him to remain at a similar price or get shorter he'd probably have to win an open grade 1 before the meeting, and the relative Irish strength risk applies to his price also.


They do all look likely targets though so if you truly believe that nearly all would be shorter or remain as short come NRNB then go for it.

It's opinion v opinion, but the prices in the given markets are definitely not fair. You're paying a premium. Just like you do when NRNB markets appear.
You just need things to fall your way, and/or be convinced it'll work out for you.

[Eggs]

…I understand nortonscoin200 & Quevega the theme is one selection from each of Mullins, Henderson, Elliott & HdB.

[Kautostar]

I couldn’t have constitution hill in a Yankee at 4-7 far too short imo