2023 Triumph Hurdle (Juveniles)

[Lobos]

It's great news for Lossie and Gala backers. The way it's going, we are going to get decent prices for both of these on the morning of the race. I hope the money continues to pour in for BD.

He'll have to be very good to give the weight to those two. He may be up to the task though and the money for him has been constant.

[ComplyOrDie]

He'll have to be very good to give the weight to those two. He may be up to the task though and the money for him has been constant.

His form ties put him right there with Lossiemouth, through Common Practic & Nusret. You could make a case he's slightly ahead (he's not come off the bridle to do what he's done, Lossiemouth has). It also has to be likely, IMO, that he will have more (just) improvement in him than the two mares. Lossiemouth has had 4 runs over hurdles, Gala also 4 but 8 life time starts for her.

The thing I keep thinking about, Willie already has Lossiemouth, Gala Marceau & Zenta for the Triumph, all of which could not run in novice company next season as they all won in France, so it makes sense for them to run in the Triumph this season, but Blood Destiny could easily have been held back for a novice campaign, so why wasn't he? Unless Willie believed he was better than what he already has.

[Lobos]

It'll be fascinating and very telling who PT decides to ride in the race.

[ComplyOrDie]

It'll be fascinating and very telling who PT decides to ride in the race.

Yeah, I mean, I'm not as big on what Paul rides as some seem to be on here. Ruby used to get it wrong and Paul gets it wrong more than Ruby, for me, or is told the wrong horse at the yard Either way, I don't put too much strength on what Paul rides, I'd rather back the horse than the jockey.

[Silverbirch]

His form ties put him right there with Lossiemouth, through Common Practic & Nusret. You could make a case he's slightly ahead (he's not come off the bridle to do what he's done, Lossiemouth has). It also has to be likely, IMO, that he will have more (just) improvement in him than the two mares. Lossiemouth has had 4 runs over hurdles, Gala also 4 but 8 life time starts for her.

The thing I keep thinking about, Willie already has Lossiemouth, Gala Marceau & Zenta for the Triumph, all of which could not run in novice company next season as they all won in France, so it makes sense for them to run in the Triumph this season, but Blood Destiny could easily have been held back for a novice campaign, so why wasn't he? Unless Willie believed he was better than what he already has.

The common practice/nusret race was a farce tbf, none of them were trying at all and has skewed the form imo

[Benjy23]

Yeah, I mean, I'm not as big on what Paul rides as some seem to be on here. Ruby used to get it wrong and Paul gets it wrong more than Ruby, for me, or is told the wrong horse at the yard Either way, I don't put too much strength on what Paul rides, I'd rather back the horse than the jockey.

The only significant wrighting I put behind it is whether to back any horse I fancy now or to wait, as the ones he doesn't pick are likely to drift. The second jockeys aren't bad enough in comparison to PT for it to change my mind on any bets.

I still think he'll pick Lossiemouth here, and she'll go off fav. But I'll still be backing Blood Destiny.

[Craigy14]

The common practice/nusret race was a farce tbf, none of them were trying at all and has skewed the form imo

Agree with this, could also argue Lossiemouth was having her first start since April 22’ and also her first start in Ireland in a graded race. Blood Destiny beat Common Practice in Jan, he’d had a run in December so likely stripped a lot fitter for that run.

Can spin it either way round, how you see fit.

[ComplyOrDie]

The common practice/nusret race was a farce tbf, none of them were trying at all and has skewed the form imo

I think it's easy to say that because of the way the race was run and the way Blood Destiny won, and for one or two horses you could definitely argue it, but I think both think Nusret & Common Practice ran pretty much up to form that day, just beat by a far superior horse. The jockeys clearly thought Paul went off too quickly, and he looked to be coming back to them but he quickened even further clear.

There's little to suggest, on the figures, that Nusret & Common Practice posted, haven't run or gone close to running their races either.

The form of the race in general is pretty solid, whether you have doubts or not.

Nusret (beaten 18 1/2 lengths) has gone and won the Adonis, and a couple even further behind have gone and run well behind Sir Allen in 'the' race at Naas that seems to be a good pointer to the Boodles winner in recent years.

Blood Destiny has been given 143, and Lossiemouth 139, so as it stands Lossiemouth (with the mares allowance) is some 3lbs better than Blood Destiny, but I think there's more to come from BD than Lossiemouth, and I have him as a potential near 150 horse with expected improvement.

Because they are juveniles it is so hard to know how much or how little improvement is actually going to happen, but the vibes for BD have been strong for quite a while now, and I'm not buying the argument that connections want better prices on Lossiemouth, that's an awful thought process, IMO.

[HesTheOne]

connections want better prices on Lossiemouth, that's an awful thought process, IMO.

Yea totally agree with this, am sure on preview circuits there is some agendas at play but you’d assume all connections are in position already.

Maybe Mikey Fogarty does need another score down but in the grand scheme of things they have been well backed already.

[Istabraq]

Controversial view but I just don't get the Blood Destiny hype, could easily be proved wrong in a couple of weeks but right now I just don't see it...

[darlojim]

Controversial view but I just don't get the Blood Destiny hype, could easily be proved wrong in a couple of weeks but right now I just don't see it...

He's been hammered in the betting due to the fact David Casey has tipped him up on the previews saying he would win, then everyone is jumping onto the fact he 'must know'... Yet this is the same David Casey that once said Vroum vroum mag (i think, or was it limini? Anyway around that time...) was working very well, 3hrs or so AFTER she was ruled out of Cheltenham

[JackieMoon33]

He's been hammered in the betting due to the fact David Casey has tipped him up on the previews saying he would win, then everyone is jumping onto the fact he 'must know'... Yet this is the same David Casey that once said Vroum vroum mag (i think, or was it limini? Anyway around that time...) was working very well, 3hrs or so AFTER she was ruled out of Cheltenham

He could tip a retired horse and some would scramble to get it added to the markets.

[Lobos]

The way Lossie has drifted makes me think she's out as opposed to just the weight of money for BD.

[FinalFurlong91]

Iv not had a bet in this race yet

Lossiemouth is 9/4 on the exchange

I'd be tempted to take some of that on the day

Or take on blood destiny by backing gala marceau with a saver on Lossiemouth

Be interesting to see how the market shapes up

[Irish Rugby]

The way Lossie has drifted makes me think she's out as opposed to just the weight of money for BD.

No. I don't think it's a significant drift. Lossiemouth stil 3.25. Could just be Casey's comments. Might make for some interesting dialogue and exchange of views in the previews to come.