Fat Jockey Podcast - Cheltenham 2023 - 'Book Approach'

[Quevega]

I'd be very interested in the 80/90% success roll ups Paul mentioned.

Totally agree with the being selective and patient as trying to get horse's onside can be costly and a waste of time anyway if the final leg never runs or wins.

When Spectre started the original roll up thread, I believe the intention was to monitor success of these bets, although this never happened.

I'm sure that many members on here would be interested in these bets, and maybe a short note in a specific thread after the bets been placed by yourself (Paul), and others can follow if they wish ?

Obviously at that success rate, I'd not be risking the antepost bet to follow
And obviously I don't think it's probable either.
I'd be happy with 52% though.

I'm assuming they'll not all be 1/5 shots.

[robith]

I'd be very interested in the 80/90% success roll ups Paul mentioned.

Totally agree with the being selective and patient as trying to get horse's onside can be costly and a waste of time anyway if the final leg never runs or wins.

When Spectre started the original roll up thread, I believe the intention was to monitor success of these bets, although this never happened.

I'm sure that many members on here would be interested in these bets, and maybe a short note in a specific thread after the bets been placed by yourself (Paul), and others can follow if they wish ?

Obviously at that success rate, I'd not be risking the antepost bet to follow
And obviously I don't think it's probable either.
I'd be happy with 52% though.

I'm assuming they'll not all be 1/5 shots.

I too am intersted for myself - on my spreadsheet I've added a note column today where I put the other factors of a bet (the roll up selection, RAB, Win Today, Related double) in order to get an accurate picture on my success rate with these bets. 2021 I think I smashed the roll ups, but then last year I went in with a 35% dead rate. So want full numbers to validate those approaches this year

[Appreciate It]

I've really enjoyed both videos so far, and the follow-up discussion, so thank you very much. I'm toying with the idea of creating a book in one race this year to see how it goes with a view to potentially expanding to more races next year. So, taking the Arkle or National Hunt Chase as an example, if your target is to win 20pts on the race, roughly how many points would you have expected to wager pre-festival, to hit that objective?

The thing that scares the life out of me is the cash flow position. Let's say you've backed Banbridge at 20s and Hollow Games at 25s for the NH chase. Come Christmas, both of them are trading at 12s, but you've decided that Gaillard Du Mesnil, Frontal Assault, Hillcrest and Whatdeawant are all more likely winners. If you lay off both Banbridge and Hollow Games, you've got 24 points locked away until the festival. While I appreciate that provided they don't win, you'll get your 24 points back, plus your original 1pt stakes, that's 26 points invested for a break even position on those two horses.

I appreciate that it isn't possible to provide a definitive budget per race, but to give me an idea as to whether making a book on even one race is feasible (for me), I'd really benefit from some cold, hard albeit approximate numbers.

[Kevloaf]

I've really enjoyed both videos so far, and the follow-up discussion, so thank you very much. I'm toying with the idea of creating a book in one race this year to see how it goes with a view to potentially expanding to more races next year. So, taking the Arkle or National Hunt Chase as an example, if your target is to win 20pts on the race, roughly how many points would you have expected to wager pre-festival, to hit that objective?

The thing that scares the life out of me is the cash flow position. Let's say you've backed Banbridge at 20s and Hollow Games at 25s for the NH chase. Come Christmas, both of them are trading at 12s, but you've decided that Gaillard Du Mesnil, Frontal Assault, Hillcrest and Whatdeawant are all more likely winners. If you lay off both Banbridge and Hollow Games, you've got 24 points locked away until the festival. While I appreciate that provided they don't win, you'll get your 24 points back, plus your original 1pt stakes, that's 26 points invested for a break even position on those two horses.

I appreciate that it isn't possible to provide a definitive budget per race, but to give me an idea as to whether making a book on even one race is feasible (for me), I'd really benefit from some cold, hard albeit approximate numbers.

I'm a bit tied up tonight Appreciate It but if I haven't answered this by Friday evening, it means I've forgotten, so give me a nudge as it's a good question and I'll be able to give you some specifics on the Arkle for myself.... just not got time right now.

To be fair if you go back through my diary it'll all the there and the points so you'll be able to see what I had tied up, but that was without any laying ..... if you've backed on anywhere other than the exchange, it becomes a pretty whopping amount you need in Betfair to lay off all the time.

That'd be where I'm aiming to get to, not where I'm at right now

[Kevloaf]

Day 2 - Books - Starting points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLJIDt29h0Q

Day 3 - Books - Starting points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfhwTkn_oo4

[That Horse]

Day 2 - Books - Starting points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLJIDt29h0Q

Day 3 - Books - Starting points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfhwTkn_oo4

FFS could you not put these on when Liverpool are due to play? will have to rifle through these before kick off.

[Kevloaf]

FFS could you not put these on when Liverpool are due to play? will have to rifle through these before kick off.

Unless your a Rangers fan, aren't you better off avoiding it?

Just off for a mid-week curry and a few beers to watch it myself actually... so any replies you get from me after 11pm tonight please assume I am and await an apology in the morning.

[fatherjohn]

Kevloaf that example you were thinking about was epatante in the christmas hurdle. stayed at 33s for the christmas/champion double despite a huge plunge on the morning which should have changed her implied odds of winning both races.

I think those were the days when there was a much more generous approach to those doubles from bookies.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Just finished the first pod and really enjoyed it so cheers both for putting it together. Looking forward to the early season thoughts - hopefully get round to them tomorrow

[fatherjohn]

separate post...I think talking about using rollups as a way to get horses onside is a bit of a magic wand solution. of course I'd like bigger odds but if I'm dutching honeysuckle and constitution hill it doesn't take too many attempts before I'm well out of pocket if they go wrong.

I'm a fan of rollups as a bit of fun but if i could hit odds of 1/1 or greater 80/90% of the time i wouldnt need anything else. if I'm not trying to get 1/1 or better I'm risking a lot for relatively little. or have I misunderstood?

[Kevloaf]

Kevloaf that example you were thinking about was epatante in the christmas hurdle. stayed at 33s for the christmas/champion double despite a huge plunge on the morning which should have changed her implied odds of winning both races.

I think those were the days when there was a much more generous approach to those doubles from bookies.

Thank you! Was annoying me that it wasn't right on the top of my tongue. Would have been a good example had I been able to recall it haha!

[Quevega]

separate post...I think talking about using rollups as a way to get horses onside is a bit of a magic wand solution. of course I'd like bigger odds but if I'm dutching honeysuckle and constitution hill it doesn't take too many attempts before I'm well out of pocket if they go wrong.

I'm a fan of rollups as a bit of fun but if i could hit odds of 1/1 or greater 80/90% of the time i wouldnt need anything else. if I'm not trying to get 1/1 or better I'm risking a lot for relatively little. or have I misunderstood?

Exactly my point a few posts back.
Seems a lot of work making books for races in 12 months time if you think you can aim at and achieve getting winning bets successfully 80/90% of the time.
To be fair to Paul, he said it should be the aim. Which is conservative because I aim to be right 100% of the time.
It's simply not possible in the long term to be that successful as a win to bet %.

As has been said on here many times, aside from enormous luck, and hard work, you have to get the value (better odds than the actual chances of an event happening) consistently and therefore be selective with bets in this game to make it pay in the long term.

That's not to say Book building cannot work, as it clearly can. The skill is trying to get each page (or most pages of the book) at the maximum price possible, or as close as possible. This has much to do about timing as anything. And then of course, being able and having the means to get out when you want.

I'd imagine the best way to then use rollups (doubles) is be selective also and focus on the value of course.
However, I'd suggest 80/90% success rate is pie in the sky in the long term.

[Quevega]

Thank you! Was annoying me that it wasn't right on the top of my tongue. Would have been a good example had I been able to recall it haha!

I think it was 40's, and was boostable.

[JackieMoon33]

FFS could you not put these on when Liverpool are due to play? will have to rifle through these before kick off.

Wrong reply

[JackieMoon33]

Day 2 - Books - Starting points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLJIDt29h0Q

Day 3 - Books - Starting points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfhwTkn_oo4

Nice videos again lads. Foxy Girl is owned by Robcour, not that it changes her ability.