Dear Diary

[FinalFurlong91]

There isn't and never will be a place on a horse racing forum for aftertiming no matter how it is done

we discuss on here to help each other, so we can improve our gambling and learn from the successes and failures of each other to win money off the enemy in march

Putting up a selection after a leg has already won completely invalidates what you are doing IMHO

And im sure if you went through the Cheltenham roll ups thread and compared the success rate of selections in there (you'll find a couple of losers from myself no doubt) to the ones put up in peoples diary after the first selection has gone it wouldnt match up

(Some might point to me not having a diary, which i dont, but i do have a thread on the racing forum where i put up almost every day to day and ante post bet i place whether it be royal ascot, Cheltenham or Wolverhampton on a Wednesday and track the P/L all well before the race and with a price that is still available)

I am though very interested having just skimmed through the handbags at 10 paces in TOTGs diary to experiment with his placed betting roll up method as i spend just as much time on my day to day betting as on Cheltenham and its not an angle id considered using

And is one i think will work well

It's nuggets like that, that make this the best forum about by an absolute country mile

[Quevega]

Personally, I have to say that if anyone has a big price about a selection then I take it at face value and am pleased for them - if they are not being truthful or have neglected to mention other losing bets then they are only fooling themselves, it has no effect on me.

I would though say that the way people record "roll ups" always seems to be a little disingenuous and that people aren't really being truthful with themselves. For me if you have 1pt on a 3/1 winner in a double with say constitution hill at 6/4 then you have put 4 points on Constitution Hill at 6/4, not 1 point at 9/1. If I could back said 3/1 winner at 4/1 with a different bookmaker and get 13/8 on Constitution Hill with a third bookmaker then why would I not do a single on 4/1 and then place any winnings on at 13/8 - it's essentially the same bet and the same decision but you have got better odds. Why would you record one bet as 1pt on Constitution Hill at 9/1 and another as 5pts on Constitution Hill at 13/8 - makes no sense. The funds that we put on any single bet must have come from somewhere - what if I had a 1pt winner last week at 9/1 and then decided today to put it all on Constitution Hill at 6/4, would be a bit mad to record that as 1pt on Constitution Hill at 24/1. Fact is that if you put on a double (or multiple) then unless it's related in some way (e.g. win today and at Festival) then you are nearly always better off putting on a single (to take advantage of different bookmaker odds) and reinvesting the winnings - and if you find it difficult after the first winner to stick multiple points on at 6/4 then perhaps you have been kidding yourself...

Yeah I agree with the first part.

My issue was mainly the lack of interest in these, as opposed to people betting in real time with reasoning etc.
The number of diaries like this have increased. I'm on here most days and it was getting tedious.

The 2 main dangers with this are IMO.
1. Other people getting sucked in to unrealistic statistics and losing money cos of it (kinda well known in gambling circles this sort of thing, we've all followed someone at some stage)
2. The Forum becoming awash with Wayne Harrison types.

Above all else. I like to study form before a race and watch the racing live, not just read the results the next day.

I agree with the roll ups to a point.
I often do doubles and if the first one comes up, the first thing I ask myself, if I have cash out is would I now want that stake to be on the second leg ! - cos it's money in my pocket if I can cash.
But I do see the other side of it, in that the initial outlay is factually smaller. And some may only make these type of bets and not be as active on a day to day basis.
And their is a definite smell of unmentioned losing bets in a lot of diaries these days, for sure.

As Dostoyevsky once said -

"The man who lies to himself is more easily offended than anyone"

[Stormez]

Who is Wayne Harrison? He’s been mentioned more on this forum than Willie Mullins in the past week!

[FinalFurlong91]

Who is Wayne Harrison? He’s been mentioned more on this forum than Willie Mullins in the past week!

You musnt venture onto YouTube much

He's the aftertime king on YouTube

It's either an absolutely genius parody account or he's the biggest pleb on the internet

I hope its the former but its almost definitely the later

[Quevega]

Who is Wayne Harrison? He’s been mentioned more on this forum than Willie Mullins in the past week!

He’s a fannybettor

[isitmarchyet]

He’s a fannybettor

You have to admire his dedication...

[Odin]

I would though say that the way people record "roll ups" always seems to be a little disingenuous and that people aren't really being truthful with themselves. For me if you have 1pt on a 3/1 winner in a double with say constitution hill at 6/4 then you have put 4 points on Constitution Hill at 6/4, not 1 point at 9/1. If I could back said 3/1 winner at 4/1 with a different bookmaker and get 13/8 on Constitution Hill with a third bookmaker then why would I not do a single on 4/1 and then place any winnings on at 13/8 - it's essentially the same bet and the same decision but you have got better odds. Why would you record one bet as 1pt on Constitution Hill at 9/1 and another as 5pts on Constitution Hill at 13/8 - makes no sense. The funds that we put on any single bet must have come from somewhere - what if I had a 1pt winner last week at 9/1 and then decided today to put it all on Constitution Hill at 6/4, would be a bit mad to record that as 1pt on Constitution Hill at 24/1. Fact is that if you put on a double (or multiple) then unless it's related in some way (e.g. win today and at Festival) then you are nearly always better off putting on a single (to take advantage of different bookmaker odds) and reinvesting the winnings - and if you find it difficult after the first winner to stick multiple points on at 6/4 then perhaps you have been kidding yourself...

I do a lot of roll ups and I agree with this to a point, but it depends on what you're trying to achieve with the roll up.

For me there's two elements to it - the first is that I bet every weekend anyway so the challenge of seeing how good my 'best' bet is on the weekend is quite appealing. However, the financial reward of doing the horses in singles is quite boring to me, so trying to add a Cheltenham horse to it gives me a chance of winning big(ger).

The second point is what would your second outlay be. I know we don't normally do monetary stakes here but I'll use them to illustrate the point here. Last year, my only successful roll up, was 16/1 Clan Legend at Aintree in December with 10/1 Flooring Porter Stayers. That's probably a sad indictment of my ability to pick winners every weekend last year, but was actually put up on here in advance of the race (post 113 of my diary last year) so is a real life example. Let's say a given person's 1pt stake is a fiver. To get the same return on FP as the double, you'd have to put nearly ?100 on in a single - does anyone really think that's not gonna attract suspicion if you're typically a fiver better? Obviously that scales up as well - a tenner would require best part of ?200 etc. In those longer priced ones, there could be a real benefit if you have an edge but you know you're gonna lose more than you win so it depends on what you're trying to achieve.

This year, I've done a lot more shorter priced horses around the evens mark and I'm starting to come to the conclusion that they probably aren't worth the roll ups in the same way I thought unless you're really selective with them as, even though the strike rate is a bit better, you probably do lose more money than you gain and are probably better off just doing an ew single at e.g 33/1, because you obviously don't get the ew angle when you do a roll up. So I've started pivoting towards that method more in the last month - I'll know more about how that turns out after this festival.

The point about being disingenuous with stakes is heavily dependent on whether you think it matters that you've lost 5 points on a specific horse (e.g. Constitution Hill) or you've just lost 5 points. For me, I'm more bothered about how many points I've lost, not necessarily where I've lost them if I've got my appropriate return on a horse. I'm not convinced that's the best way of thinking, but it's where I'm at atm.

[Lobos]

I think as long as you put (RU) next to your bet in your diary then the inflated price will be clear to everyone. That's how I see it anyway.

[Irish Rugby]

More comments on this issue than on the Gold Cup thread, as an example (Oh no. Even I've added to it)

[Hardy Eustace]

Just landed a 34 fold accumulator with constitution hill the last leg. I’m now on him at 100 trillion, billion to 1. Hope he gets there in one piece.

[Kevloaf]

Just landed a 34 fold accumulator with constitution hill the last leg. I’m now on him at 100 trillion, billion to 1. Hope he gets there in one piece.

Well he won't beat Vauban so you might as well lay it off now mate at 6/4?

[Quevega]

Just landed a 34 fold accumulator with constitution hill the last leg. I’m now on him at 100 trillion, billion to 1. Hope he gets there in one piece.

When adding to your diary.
Make sure you put (RU) next to your bet.
And use a different colour.

[Irish Rugby]

Just landed a 34 fold accumulator with constitution hill the last leg. I’m now on him at 100 trillion, billion to 1. Hope he gets there in one piece.

And then Nicky goes and sends him chasing, after pressure from Betway, who otherwise would be facing bankruptcy.

[robith]

And then Nicky goes and sends him chasing, after pressure from Betway, who otherwise would be facing bankruptcy.

lol at the idea betway would lay the bet in the first place

[Lobos]

Well he won't beat Vauban so you might as well lay it off now mate at 6/4?

So true. You just know he's going to blow out all those Constitution Hill and Honeysuckle bets. Can see the Mullins interview now. Bookies saviour.