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One could certainly think that the way HS rode Calico, that they knew he’s better than his rating.
Im not one for relying on ratings to part with money, but after reading AL’s posts, I am intrigued to find out what these two are rated at now.
I think the fact they ran him in the kingmaker just 13 days after his last run would also suggest they quite like him and wanted to see how good he was with cheekpieces.
What the handicapper does with him i dont know, but if he gives him any less than 6lb, i'd be absolutely smashing him for the grand annual, absolutely smashing him.
if that's spot on charlie, can you explain calico's 137 rpr at southwell to me?
because using exactly the same principles it should be minimum 141
No. Debating a 4 point Southwell RPR differential brings zero value to the forum. You've made your case, Odin countered well. Enough time has been spent talking about Calico, move on.
No. Debating a 4 point Southwell RPR differential brings zero value to the forum. You've made your case, Odin countered well. Enough time has been spent talking about Calico, move on.
who do you think you are to tell me what i can talk about? are you Kevloaf ?
because you can't answer something? i cant talk about it.
i said 141 minimum.
He did counter it well, but wasn't spot on imo. but was in yours.
when i ask you to explain a blatantly low rpr for a horse who he is questioning the ability of you get like that.
I'd rather you ignore me. than tell me to shut up.
this is a cheltenham festival forum, and you want me to stop talking about a horse who has a great shout at winning a race there?
No. Debating a 4 point Southwell RPR differential brings zero value to the forum. You've made your case, Odin countered well. Enough time has been spent talking about Calico, move on.
I found it interesting and it does add to the Arkle discussion, form etc.
Whether one agrees or not is another matter, but definitely worthy of discussion, especially when someone has obviously spent some time on this, trying to add perspective and being helpful.
who do you think you are to tell me what i can talk about? are you Kevloaf ?
because you can't answer something? i cant talk about it.
i said 141 minimum.
He did counter it well, but wasn't spot on imo. but was in yours.
when i ask you to explain a blatantly low rpr for a horse who he is questioning the ability of you get like that.
I'd rather you ignore me. than tell me to shut up.
this is a cheltenham festival forum, and you want me to stop talking about a horse who has a great shout at winning a race there?
I'd love to be Kev tbf
Debating how much Calico may have improved is important to give the Jonbon run context and I appreciate, as others have, that you've gone into excellent detail when making your case, but there comes a point where the discussion moves from debating the merit of a run with a view to Cheltenham, to just arguing over who is right. The tone associated with the latter is not helpful and demonstrated well by the above post.
RPR's are far too subjective for a lengthy debate about a 4 point RPR differential from a race at Southwell. I didn't tell you to shut up, I simply said move on. These exchanges add no value to the forum. I simply agreed with Odin. You're arguing again and its tiresome.
AaronLad I don't know the horses Calico beat in his previous race so I can't counter your feeling that he had a low RPR for his win other than looking at the RP comments and seeing that he made all. I've no doubt he's better than a 120-odd horse so if he makes all and jumps well, he's likely to have taken the lesser horses out of their comfort zone and that may have exaggerated his performance in that class. Naturally, his performance against Jonbon was good - my point is that it's a stretch to say Jonbon ran to about the level of last year's Arkle winner in Saturday's race. I'd have him closer to an average winner (around mid 150s, I'd reluctantly accept matching the 157 he got for beating Monmiral even thought that's questionable as well as Monmiral has stunk the place out this year).
In terms of Calico performance (and Jonbon for that matter), we'd be having a different conversation imo if he'd winged the last down the back straight - but he didn't and from watching the race again, I'm fairly certain Harry knew the game was up then and only gave him a token reminder after the last fence. This again reinforces my view that he can't have run that much better than his best - whatever his best actually was.
And just on the being proven wrong bit - I don't think this race has any real bearing on JBs ability to win the Arkle, nor Calico's to win a decent handicap (until the handicapper agrees with you and raises him a stone for it). I think JB is clearly a Grade 1 Novice Chaser, whether he wins at one of the big festivals or not. That doesn't mean Saturday's performance was as good as that so I don't think it's fair to say I've been proven wrong if one of them wins next time out. I also don't think you've been proven wrong in that regard if they don't.
AaronLad I don't know the horses Calico beat in his previous race so I can't counter your feeling that he had a low RPR for his win other than looking at the RP comments and seeing that he made all. I've no doubt he's better than a 120-odd horse so if he makes all and jumps well, he's likely to have taken the lesser horses out of their comfort zone and that may have exaggerated his performance in that class. Naturally, his performance against Jonbon was good - my point is that it's a stretch to say Jonbon ran to about the level of last year's Arkle winner in Saturday's race. I'd have him closer to an average winner (around mid 150s, I'd reluctantly accept matching the 157 he got for beating Monmiral even thought that's questionable as well as Monmiral has stunk the place out this year).
In terms of Calico performance (and Jonbon for that matter), we'd be having a different conversation imo if he'd winged the last down the back straight - but he didn't and from watching the race again, I'm fairly certain Harry knew the game was up then and only gave him a token reminder after the last fence. This again reinforces my view that he can't have run that much better than his best - whatever his best actually was.
And just on the being proven wrong bit - I don't think this race has any real bearing on JBs ability to win the Arkle, nor Calico's to win a decent handicap (until the handicapper agrees with you and raises him a stone for it). I think JB is clearly a Grade 1 Novice Chaser, whether he wins at one of the big festivals or not. That doesn't mean Saturday's performance was as good as that so I don't think it's fair to say I've been proven wrong if one of them wins next time out. I also don't think you've been proven wrong in that regard if they don't.
Yeah I didn't really mean proven wrong as such that you don't think jonbon is a grade 1 chaser, more that you don't think calico could be a stone better than his 136 rating.
He's been given a ts rating the same as edwardstone for last years kingmaker, all the more impressive for a 2 horse race.
oh and to be clear i'm certainly not arguing with you
who do you think you are to tell me what i can talk about? are you Kevloaf ?
because you can't answer something? i cant talk about it.
i said 141 minimum.
He did counter it well, but wasn't spot on imo. but was in yours.
when i ask you to explain a blatantly low rpr for a horse who he is questioning the ability of you get like that.
I'd rather you ignore me. than tell me to shut up.
this is a cheltenham festival forum, and you want me to stop talking about a horse who has a great shout at winning a race there?
AL, I love that you bring an alternative view on form - but you have to work on your tone and not taking things so personally. A few times you've gone off the deep end, and there's really no need
AL, I love that you bring an alternative view on form - but you have to work on your tone and not taking things so personally. A few times you've gone off the deep end, and there's really no need
sorry but my tone was exactly how being told to move on and stop talking about something deserved, and if this is not to your liking i'm sorry but it was aimed solely at the one person who felt it ok to dictate to me.
Jonbon ran in a couple of hurdle races like the one in the Kingmaker, i.e. not very competitive and having to make his own running and winning in an OK fashion. Back then he was winning and still getting hounded for not winning well.
He went and finished 2nd to Constitution Hill at the festival. He then finished ahead of El Fabiolo at Aintree, both could have varying degrees of excuses, but they are the facts we have. They have met once and it's 1-0 to Jonbon, at this present time I'd not be interested in excuses for either horse from that meet over hurdles.
It would be foolish to say either had not improved since then, of course.
Warwick is a flat track, and probably not ideal for Jonbon, even more so without a target to aim at.
El Fabiolo won very well, but had a target to aim for (DD).
The races were chalk and cheese IMO. One was set up for a horse to look impressive, the other, not.
I think the Arkle will suit both if DD goes off like the clappers, however you'd be hoping that neither jockey would be worried about the other and that they don't give DD too much rope otherwise they could find themselves with too much to do.
I think I'd be siding with Jonbon of the pair, for now, however, it wouldn't be a strong opinion, and I have both, plus DD backed, so I couldn't really care less. DD is the one I hope they forget about, but I can't see that happening, tbh.
Is it ?
I’ve got out of breath plenty on times walking up hill from the parade ring to the stands.
I think it’s quite a stiff finish…
From ATR:
"Left handed, and flat with the exception of a fairly steep climb soon after the winning line" - which is how I've always seen the course. Definitely more emphasis on speed, not quite Kempton, but closer to what Kempton is than what Cheltenham is, IMO.
Mick Fitzgerald says: "Warwick is very much a speed track and, largely due to that reason, I rate it one of the toughest in Britain for a novice."
Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 13 February 2023, 10:53 AM.
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