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Well, it's not is it.....Arkle 10/1 NRNB or 25/1 to not run?
Turners he's 11/2 best price with a firm I've never heard of
If I'd not already backed him I'd take the 25's Ew. Worth the risk especially after Jonbons indifferent run and Appreciate it probably jumping ship . Can't trust Dysart and Saint Roi maybe isn't good enough. El Fabiolo looks solid but I could easily see Banbridge running into a place and it only takes one poor jump in an Arkle and all of a sudden he could have a winning opportunity.
If I'd not already backed him I'd take the 25's Ew. Worth the risk especially after Jonbons indifferent run and Appreciate it probably jumping ship . Can't trust Dysart and Saint Roi maybe isn't good enough. El Fabiolo looks solid but I could easily see Banbridge running into a place and it only takes one poor jump in an Arkle and all of a sudden he could have a winning opportunity.
If an indifferent run is running the quickest kingmaker (at warwick) ever (it's not the only one to be run on good ground), what's he going to be like when it's not an indifferent run?
The kingmaker changed to 2miles from 2m4f in 1996, and was switched to february the same year.
This forum is going to go into meltdown when he's given a 160+ rpr
If an indifferent run is running the quickest kingmaker (at warwick) ever (it's not the only one to be run on good ground), what's he going to be like when it's not an indifferent run?
The kingmaker changed to 2miles from 2m4f in 1996, and was switched to february the same year.
This forum is going to go into meltdown when he's given a 160+ rpr
Blimey, I did think they were shifting, but did not realise that!!
Personally think that the way the race went with Skelton’s ride, has caused confusion and resulted in contrasting opinions.
If an indifferent run is running the quickest kingmaker (at warwick) ever (it's not the only one to be run on good ground), what's he going to be like when it's not an indifferent run?
The kingmaker changed to 2miles from 2m4f in 1996, and was switched to february the same year.
This forum is going to go into meltdown when he's given a 160+ rpr
I understand you're much better than me with times so I'm not gonna debate any of that side of things, but if jonbon is given a 160+ performance for that it suggests that racing post think Calico has ran approximately 1 stone better than previously in his life. That's just a ludicrous suggestion.
Remember the RPRs are initially anchored around finding a horse that the analyst believes has run to form. It's absolutely more likely that in a two runner race (regardless of time), the horse that is more likely to have run to form is the lower rated horse - when they finish close-ish - as the better rated horse doesn't need to do more than that to win and like Saturday isn't normally ridden out to the line to do so.
If you say that Calico has run slightly better than last time I'd be ok with that - call it 140 for ease. Jonbon 10lbs better on pure form/weight and then up to 5lb upgrade for being taken by surprise but getting back on top comfortably? So somewhere in the region of 151-156, would be my guess. Doesn't mean he can't run to 160+ but there's no way that performance was worthy of it or can't be trusted to be worthy of it (whether I'm proven right or wrong later in the season)
Blimey, I did think they were shifting, but did not realise that!!
Personally think that the way the race went with Skelton’s ride, has caused confusion and resulted in contrasting opinions.
Peope will say it was the ground, it was quickest it's ever been blah, blah , blah.
it was still the only race on saturdays warwick card to go faster than standard, where in contrast 5/7 races at newbury were run faster than standard.
It's an impressive performance from both horses.
I understand you're much better than me with times so I'm not gonna debate any of that side of things, but if jonbon is given a 160+ performance for that it suggests that racing post think Calico has ran approximately 1 stone better than previously in his life. That's just a ludicrous suggestion.
Remember the RPRs are initially anchored around finding a horse that the analyst believes has run to form. It's absolutely more likely that in a two runner race (regardless of time), the horse that is more likely to have run to form is the lower rated horse - when they finish close-ish - as the better rated horse doesn't need to do more than that to win and like Saturday isn't normally ridden out to the line to do so.
If you say that Calico has run slightly better than last time I'd be ok with that - call it 140 for ease. Jonbon 10lbs better on pure form/weight and then up to 5lb upgrade for being taken by surprise but getting back on top comfortably? So somewhere in the region of 151-156, would be my guess. Doesn't mean he can't run to 160+ but there's no way that performance was worthy of it or can't be trusted to be worthy of it (whether I'm proven right or wrong later in the season)
Sorry odin but i totally disagree with you on this.
As i've pointed out in my post yesterday i feel the 137 rpr he was given lto is low.
It was a fast time then at southwell. ok he beat cows but 4 horses rated all in mid 120's were smashed a minimum of 40 lengths that day, should be higher imo.
so cheekpieces, what do they do?
well for some horses they do nothing but annoy them, but for some it just stops them getting distracted at important times in a race, allows them to concentrate their mind on the job, run faster, jump better. all things they have clearly done for calico in his last 2 run. you will be proven wrong, i'm not saying Jonbons a shoo-in to beat el fab but if he is beaten it'll be the quickest arkle we have ever seen. (as long as it's good to soft)
Last edited by AaronLad; 13 February 2023, 06:52 AM.
I understand you're much better than me with times so I'm not gonna debate any of that side of things, but if jonbon is given a 160+ performance for that it suggests that racing post think Calico has ran approximately 1 stone better than previously in his life. That's just a ludicrous suggestion.
Remember the RPRs are initially anchored around finding a horse that the analyst believes has run to form. It's absolutely more likely that in a two runner race (regardless of time), the horse that is more likely to have run to form is the lower rated horse - when they finish close-ish - as the better rated horse doesn't need to do more than that to win and like Saturday isn't normally ridden out to the line to do so.
If you say that Calico has run slightly better than last time I'd be ok with that - call it 140 for ease. Jonbon 10lbs better on pure form/weight and then up to 5lb upgrade for being taken by surprise but getting back on top comfortably? So somewhere in the region of 151-156, would be my guess. Doesn't mean he can't run to 160+ but there's no way that performance was worthy of it or can't be trusted to be worthy of it (whether I'm proven right or wrong later in the season)
Sorry odin but i totally disagree with you on this.
As i've pointed out in my post yesterday i feel the 137 rpr he was given lto is low.
It was a fast time then at southwell. ok he beat cows but 4 horses rated all in mid 120's were smashed a minimum of 40 lengths that day, should be higher imo.
so cheekpieces, what do they do?
well for some horses they do nothing but annoy them, but for some it just stops them getting distracted at important times in a race, allows them to concentrate their mind on the job, run faster, jump better. all things they have clearly done for calico in his last 2 run. you will be proven wrong, i'm not saying Jonbons a shoo-in to beat el fab but if he is beaten it'll be the quickest arkle we have ever seen. (as long as it's good to soft)
You are clearly doing some work here, and I find it all very interesting.
Food for thought at the very least.
Cheers AL.
One could certainly think that the way HS rode Calico, that they knew he’s better than his rating.
Im not one for relying on ratings to part with money, but after reading AL’s posts, I am intrigued to find out what these two are rated at now.
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