2023 Novice Chasers

[Lobos]

Don't care. Dead heat will do. Fantastic race in prospect.

[Irish Rugby]

Fair play to the early birds here, such as Spectre etc. They had the Arkle late last Spring as predominantly a 2 horse race and the plan was to get both Jonbon and El Fabiolo onside early doors and at big prices. That's worked out 100% and a credit to them for sharing, and a good shout for FJ in general and the benefit it brings us all.

Now guys, and girls, who's going to be 3rd?

[darlojim]

Fair play to the early birds here, such as Spectre etc. They had the Arkle late last Spring as predominantly a 2 horse race and the plan was to get both Jonbon and El Fabiolo onside early doors and at big prices. That's worked out 100% and a credit to them for sharing, and a good shout for FJ in general and the benefit it brings us all.

Now guys, and girls, who's going to be 3rd?

El Fab, Jon and Dysart.. simple isn't it?

[Kevloaf]

Fair play to the early birds here, such as Spectre etc. They had the Arkle late last Spring as predominantly a 2 horse race and the plan was to get both Jonbon and El Fabiolo onside early doors and at big prices. That's worked out 100% and a credit to them for sharing, and a good shout for FJ in general and the benefit it brings us all.

Now guys, and girls, who's going to be 3rd?

I'm just 'etc'.

You gave credit to FM for sorting your account the other day and that was me as well ..... I didn't say anything then cos I'm so humble

2 pts e/w on Lady Princess today in France, doubled with Jonbon (29/1) and El Fabiolo (44/1) in the Arkle

Would be nice to get them in the book as a starting point in what will inevitably be a full book in the race.

Maybe it's cos I said I'd do the full book

[Odin]

Maybe it's cos I said I'd do the full book

At least you got your roll ups on - I've got 5 failed roll ups trying to get jonbon and el fabiolo on side (jonbon 7s and el fab 10s). Haters will say I should have just put the points on the singles. In this case, the haters would be right!

[Odin]

Mullins bingo is definitely a little clearer after that isn't it?

AI should go Turners, GDM should go NHC. Reckon Sir Gerhard joins AI in the Turners and JDB steps up for the BANC, maybe with Kilcruit. First time I've actually played Mullins bingo with some confidence.

Confused why that run means GDM goes NH chase? Wasn't knocked about when not in with a chance, which was to be expected given the ground and distance. I'm not saying he won't/shouldn't go NH chase, just don't see why today changes anything?

Fwiw, my thoughts would be:

Arkle: el fab, dysart dynamo
Turners: sir Gerhard, appreciate it (two horses mighty potter hasn't beaten so try and get him beat)
RSA: gdm (dependable at the distance if not spectacular), JDB (assuming all ok, may be helped by jumping at a slower pace)
NH chase: ramillies (beaten second favourite, admittedly questionable form given chemicals fitness; definitely wants more than 3m)

[Carnage at Taunton]

Gun to head, it's El Fabiolo for me.

Best form in the book by a mile, and I think he can improve further still. Probably should have beat Jonbon last year too. Really close though. Might be one for a poll... Maybe I should get everyone's opinions again

Not sure looking at the form provides us much when comparing their chances to be honest, and i definitely would not take the Aintree race too literally.
EF has gone deeper now than J, giving him the best form, but J has not had that opportunity.
As re Aintree, one had a hard race at Cheltenham, the other did not. So theres an argument that J could have won easier without that scenario.
Anyway that was hurdles.
I would say thus far over fences, J has looked the more accomplished jumper and traveller, but yesterday showed us what an engine EF has.
Yes, it is a really close call.
Im just siding with Jonbon, but not by much.

[Dandrew99]

Not sure looking at the form provides us much when comparing their chances to be honest, and i definitely would not take the Aintree race too literally.
EF has gone deeper now than J, giving him the best form, but J has not had that opportunity.
As re Aintree, one had a hard race at Cheltenham, the other did not. So theres an argument that J could have won easier without that scenario.
Anyway that was hurdles.
I would say thus far over fences, J has looked the more accomplished jumper and traveller, but yesterday showed us what an engine EF has.
Yes, it is a really close call.
Im just siding with Jonbon, but not by much.

Yeah, no doubt it's close. When it's close I like to side with the horse that has beat the best horse/horses, which is clearly El Fabiolo. We know that when El Fabiolo is up against 155-160 horses, he's got enough to beat them (and pretty easily), whereas I think everything in the Irish Arkle would beat the likes of Monmiral and Boothill, so that's a question mark over Jonbon. Other people will go more for the visuals, which is a perfectly fine way to look at it too, and obviously Jonbon is the better jumper of a fence, albeit he has never really had to jump under any real pressure. I'd side with El Fabiolo in the travelling department though.

There's also the question of whether Cheltenham will light Jonbon up like it did last year, similarly for El Fabiolo who has no Cheltenham experience at all. Gunna be a cracking race!

[Exar Essay]

I see the RPR's are published for the Flogas. Mighty Potter gets a 161 with Adamantly chosen getting 149 in second. GDM 148 in third.

I must admit, I think that's harsh all round. That's AC's joint best RPR with his run at Limerick in Heavy over Christmas. Visually, he was much better yesterday and he'd have preferred the ground. GDM ran his race and it looked a similar effort to his Drinmore run. Mighty Potter looked far more authoritative yesterday too an yet scored 3pts lower than the Drinmore. I'd been expecting something closer to 165, maybe higher.

[Outlaw]

I see the RPR's are published for the Flogas. Mighty Potter gets a 161 with Adamantly chosen getting 149 in second. GDM 148 in third.

I must admit, I think that's harsh all round. That's AC's joint best RPR with his run at Limerick in Heavy over Christmas. Visually, he was much better yesterday and he'd have preferred the ground. GDM ran his race and it looked a similar effort to his Drinmore run. Mighty Potter looked far more authoritative yesterday too an yet scored 3pts lower than the Drinmore. I'd been expecting something closer to 165, maybe higher.

Get where your coming from especially with some of the ratings floated around.The runner up did surprisingly well the last day as agree had some useful numbers early season on good ground. Winner certainly earned his 160 rating now(thought the last day was a bit inflated personally), and a good half stone clear in this division with a couple of 2m sorts stepping up having to bridge that at present.

Anybody not see him a fair bit clear in this division out of curiosity?

[robith]

Get where your coming from especially with some of the ratings floated around.The runner up did surprisingly well the last day as agree had some useful numbers early season on good ground. Winner certainly earned his 160 rating now(thought the last day was a bit inflated personally), and a good half stone clear in this division with a couple of 2m sorts stepping up having to bridge that at present.

Anybody not see him a fair bit clear in this division out of curiosity?

I've been a bit nervous on him just as his spring festival efforts last year were variable to say the least. But that was very authoritative yesterday imo, worthy fav

[Exar Essay]

Get where your coming from especially with some of the ratings floated around.The runner up did surprisingly well the last day as agree had some useful numbers early season on good ground. Winner certainly earned his 160 rating now(thought the last day was a bit inflated personally), and a good half stone clear in this division with a couple of 2m sorts stepping up having to bridge that at present.

Anybody not see him a fair bit clear in this division out of curiosity?

I actually think he could be the best price short fav. As you say, I think he's half a stone clear of Banbrdige, Appreciate It etc. Hard to fathom how Jonbon is shorter where he has a very credible rival.

[Quevega]

I actually think he could be the best price short fav. As you say, I think he's half a stone clear of Banbrdige, Appreciate It etc. Hard to fathom how Jonbon is shorter where he has a very credible rival.

I agree, ability wise he looks easily the best.
Just his jumping that you'd have a slight concern about, he shortens and gets over alright and lands running, but there's something a little fragile about his jumping.
I think he had to be pulled back Sunday, and if he can just cruise behind a better gallop then he could post a proper figure.
Rather like GDC, he only woke up after the last.

[opatcho]

I’m quite taken back with Mighty Potter, I looked a right dog on his first chase, and since then… he’s starting to look like a star!

I’ve done a 180 on him, thought he’d win yesterday but not in the fashion that he did

A lot of talk and focus on Mullins yard over the last 1-2 months, I think Gordon has two of the best novices in training right now in Mighty Potter and Gerri C - who’s yet to tackle 3 miles over fences

5 weeks, so a lot can still happen, but I’m really excited with these two… and would be no surprise they’ll cover a few of my accas that week

[Brooksie]

I’m quite taken back with Mighty Potter, I looked a right dog on his first chase, and since then… he’s starting to look like a star!

I’ve done a 180 on him, thought he’d win yesterday but not in the fashion that he did

A lot of talk and focus on Mullins yard over the last 1-2 months, I think Gordon has two of the best novices in training right now in Mighty Potter and Gerri C - who’s yet to tackle 3 miles over fences

5 weeks, so a lot can still happen, but I’m really excited with these two… and would be no surprise they’ll cover a few of my accas that week

I'm confident Gordon will have it right off at the festival this year. Wednesday and Thursday he has a strong hand. Gerri, Delta Work, Potter, Teahupoo, under a better ride still think Halka Du Tabert goes close in the MNH now getting 5lb off Ashroe. Plenty of ammo in the handicaps. If things click this year he could be bagging 5 or 6.