2023 Novice Chasers

[riccirich]

The confidence in AI really is daunting - I don't think I can recall Willie and all the team being so bullish about a horse like this before.

Still, I prefer to look with my eyes than listen with my ears!

Come on anyone but AI

They were just as bullish about him winning the champion bumper.... before a stablemate beat him

[opatcho]

Just surprised that a horse I actually fancy is at a defect price!

[charlie]

Agreed, but why send him to five bumpers over two seasons ?

They had to send him somewhere!

[Lobos]

They were just as bullish about him winning the champion bumper.... before a stablemate beat him

True and there was a fair bit of confidence/money for him in last year's Champion Hurdle and he got beat then as well. Perhaps he's just a Leopardstown bully!

[Quevega]

Hard race for the bookies to price up probably.

Mighty Potter beat GDM last time and is the favourite at Cheltenham so needs to be fairly short.

GDM has Townend on board (could have several winners on Saturday and will be popular with punters on the day) and won a grade 1 last time. They probably don't want to put him up as 3rd favourite just yet. If they get sustained money for Mighty Potter and James du Berlais, they have the option of pushing GDM out and getting the money before the race from punters just looking for Townend and Mullins on the racecard and balance their book.

Adamantly Chosen finished second in a grade 1 last time and is 33/1. He should be shorter than Kilcruit really.

My view on this race is that GDM likely won't beat Mighty Potter from how their first meeting went (although GDM could come on from it being his first race of the season and the race is over an extra 1.5f). I've never taken to Mighty Potter. He won a shit grade 1 at Christmas as a novice hurdler, was put in his place at Cheltenham and beat Flame Bearer at Punchestown for another grade 1.

He won at Christmas but the race fell apart. We know from last year GDM isn't a top animal at this mid distance and he got close enough last time to Mighty Potter. He's also not a great jumper.

JDB ran to a high rating on debut and his performance compared favourably to the mares over the same course and distance on that day. He was also the highest rated hurdler out of the 3 of them.

3/1 is a fair price for me compared with the other two based on JDB having a higher upside to me.

He wasn't put in his place at Cheltenham. IMO.
He hit a hurdle in the supreme, and then was pulled up, potentially lame.
Your reading of his form seems very skewed.
I can understand the jumping doubts, as he's a novice like most of the field, but the form is solid enough.

[Lobos]

Just read Appreciate It owners dream is to win the Gold Cup with him !!! They'd better hurry up !

[Many Clouds]

Just read Appreciate It owners dream is to win the Gold Cup with him !!! They'd better hurry up !

Just seen that myself, so Arkle this year, champion chase 2024, ryanair 2025 and GC 2026 looks the obvious route.

[Big Bucks]

Thought I'd read somewhere that Willie has never sent a Novice Chaser to the Fez on the back of 1 run. Is that correct??

Never actually looked it up, but so Tony Keenan said on Off the Fence.

[DenmanSacre]

He wasn't put in his place at Cheltenham. IMO.
He hit a hurdle in the supreme, and then was pulled up, potentially lame.
Your reading of his form seems very skewed.
I can understand the jumping doubts, as he's a novice like most of the field, but the form is solid enough.

Fair.

I'm not sure what the best horse he's beat though that has run his race. GDM over fences but that's at a trip too short for him. Over hurdles probably Three Stripe Life but he wasn't top class.

We will see how he does on Sunday and if he can beat James du Berlais I'll give him a lot of credit. I still think he's pretty immature and needs to brush up on his jumping. If he's improved since Christmas he could be good enough but I'll be taking him on here and most likely at Cheltenham with whatever is the pick of Willies.

[ComplyOrDie]

Just seen that myself, so Arkle this year, champion chase 2024, ryanair 2025 and GC 2026 looks the obvious route.

And his pension in 2027

[ComplyOrDie]

Personally don't see GDM overturning the form with Mighty Potter at this trip so I'm more inclined to lean towards the race being Mighty Potter vs James Du Berlais, myself, regardless of what the current market is telling us.

The markets are still very early. We'll know more in the build up and potentially just before the off as to which way they are actually leaning.

[AaronLad]

Just read Appreciate It owners dream is to win the Gold Cup with him !!! They'd better hurry up !

so arkle 2023, gold cup 2024 is out of the question for appreciate it?
but the arkle 2024 gold cup 2025 for con hill isn't?

[Carnage at Taunton]

Personally don't see GDM overturning the form with Mighty Potter at this trip so I'm more inclined to lean towards the race being Mighty Potter vs James Du Berlais, myself, regardless of what the current market is telling us.

The markets are still very early. We'll know more in the build up and potentially just before the off as to which way they are actually leaning.

If you backed MP and/or JDB for the Turners, and got beat by GDM in this, you would not be happy!!

[Carnage at Taunton]

so arkle 2023, gold cup 2024 is out of the question for appreciate it?
but the arkle 2024 gold cup 2025 for con hill isn't?

It’s an age thing…ain’t it?

[ComplyOrDie]

If you backed MP and/or JDB for the Turners, and got beat by GDM in this, you would not be happy!!

Correct.

GDM favourite for the Turners by the end of Sunday