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2023 Novice Chasers

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  • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

    If Willie wins the flogas beating mighty potter I’d say the turners more likely for obvious reasons
    This is how I'd see it. You'd probably want a Mighty Potter win, with JDB a staying on 2nd and GDM a staying on but not too close 3rd To see JDB pushed up the BANC and GDM the NHC.

    El Fab staying on in the Arkle to cement this!

    ​​​​​​I know it's a Cheltenham forum but you're almost certainly better finding a bet at the weekend than guessing where they'll all end up even running at Cheltenham
    Last edited by Benjy23; 3 February 2023, 01:11 PM.

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    • Willie Mullins, whilst not saying it, seems to suggest on the Sportinglife, the order is Appreciate It number 1, El Fabiolo number 2 and Dysart Dynamo number 3, which is a brutal assessment from him for my Dysart Dynamo hopes

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      • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

        A maiden winner with 1 run and a beaten horse
        yeah I’d say he would
        Thought I'd read somewhere that Willie has never sent a Novice Chaser to the Fez on the back of 1 run. Is that correct??

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        • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
          Willie Mullins, whilst not saying it, seems to suggest on the Sportinglife, the order is Appreciate It number 1, El Fabiolo number 2 and Dysart Dynamo number 3, which is a brutal assessment from him for my Dysart Dynamo hopes
          Betting for Saturday has no. 2 and 3 very much the other way around doesn't it. They do all seem clear on AI being number one though in everything your read!

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          • Willie often ranks his horses according to what they've done, and not what they could do.
            Stoic, through and through.
            He often talks up his older horses more than the up and cummers that have yet to give him as many good days.

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            • Nobody should forget Stattler won 2m5 and 3m1 before winnng the NHC....

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              • All the talk is about Mullins 5 in the Flogas...........does anyone actually fancy the solid 5/4fav Harry??

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                • Originally posted by Silverbirch View Post
                  Nobody should forget Stattler won 2m5 and 3m1 before winnng the NHC....

                  A beginner's chase and a G3. Fair to say that a bit different.

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                  • Originally posted by Silverbirch View Post
                    Nobody should forget Stattler won 2m5 and 3m1 before winnng the NHC....
                    Yep, Patrick did say yesterday that he has a fair bit of pace about him.

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                    • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

                      You'll need a rod capable of sharks calling Ramillies super
                      haha

                      Super is a stretch, but he's a player don't you think? I think recency bias has distorted our view of what wins the NHC. Lots of classier types flirt with the idea of going there but the eventual winner is more often than not a dour stayers who has course experience and jumps well. Enter the not so super, big Ram.

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                      • Originally posted by charlie View Post

                        haha

                        Super is a stretch, but he's a player don't you think? I think recency bias has distorted our view of what wins the NHC. Lots of classier types flirt with the idea of going there but the eventual winner is more often than not a dour stayers who has course experience and jumps well. Enter the not so super, big Ram.
                        Fair play Charlie. It's down to you several of us took the 50's about him. Should GDM go BANC then he could go very short for the NHC. Great shout.

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                        • Originally posted by charlie View Post

                          haha

                          Super is a stretch, but he's a player don't you think? I think recency bias has distorted our view of what wins the NHC. Lots of classier types flirt with the idea of going there but the eventual winner is more often than not a dour stayers who has course experience and jumps well. Enter the not so super, big Ram.
                          I did have him backed at a big price (I think, in no small part, down to you), but I just don't like him really and I ultimately cashed him out, although the cash out was because he had no entries, and not anything he had done or hadn't done over fences.

                          He is a boat, isn't he.

                          It's probably a strange thing to say, given the recent form, but I think I'd rather Ramillies run in the NH Chase because I think that would give Chemical Energy his best chance, and he's my biggest winner in the race. I know, I know, recent form has Chemical Energy well behind Ramillies, but that wasn't his true running, IMO, and was coming off a fair break and giving some weight away, so I can certainly forgive him that run.

                          If Gaillard turns up to the race then CE has no chance anyway, IMO.

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                          • Originally posted by DenmanSacre View Post

                            Ramilles is currently second favourite for the NHC. He's just beat the third favourite convincingly.
                            Yeah I'm not sure what to make of Ramilies, didn't he have 5 bumpers ?
                            Good chasers should be sent over fences sooner and there's nothing in his hurdle career that screams G2 chase winner to me, it just strikes me as a slightly odd career path.
                            The Donnellys have City Chief for the NH Chase too, I wouldn't be shocked if that one turned out to be better than Ramilies, whether they'd run all three I have no idea...

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                            • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                              Yeah I'm not sure what to make of Ramilies, didn't he have 5 bumpers ?
                              Good chasers should be sent over fences sooner and there's nothing in his hurdle career that screams G2 chase winner to me, it just strikes me as a slightly odd career path.
                              The Donnellys have City Chief for the NH Chase too, I wouldn't be shocked if that one turned out to be better than Ramilies, whether they'd run all three I have no idea...
                              City Chief.......so he is !! Proper spanner in the works Ista. He's running tomorrow as well. Trained by Henderson though who's record in the NHC is worse than mine.........he has come out before and said he bloody hates the race. That would put me off him a bit. Good spot though.

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                              • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                                City Chief.......so he is !! Proper spanner in the works Ista. He's running tomorrow as well. Trained by Henderson though who's record in the NHC is worse than mine.........he has come out before and said he bloody hates the race. That would put me off him a bit. Good spot though.
                                He made a horrible mistake on debut behind Gellino Bello at Exeter and of course that one is a G1 hurdle winner, he won at Hereford 2/3 weeks ago and could just be one who is taking time to adjust to chasing.
                                He really needs a stamina test so has only been entered in the NH Chase.
                                I’m still fairly sure GDM goes for the same race regardless of his performance this weekend, who goes there with him is fascinating…

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