2023 Novice Chasers

[Lbur4288]

Good grief!!
9/2 for a horse to win 2 chases??
A horse that’s never ran in a chase, been off the track for ages, and last time seen got smashed??!!!
Worlds gone mad.

I almost talked myself into backing Largy Debut doing to Sir G what he did to his stablemate and bumper rival Kilcruit when dispatched at similar odds. Cooler heads prevailed though.

[Hurricane fly]

Honestly if we are crabbing Sir Gerhard a dual festival winner who has lost only lost twice both at a Punchestown which is known as a favourites graveyard because of horses being over the top who an earth are we supposed to fancy?

Mighty Potter who pulled up on his one festival visit and has also been beaten by the beast that is Statuaire and MMM?

Dysart Dynamo who has one festival visit and fell before coming a 53 length 5th in his only other grade 1 appearance.

It's barely 6 months since Saint Roi finished 3rd in a summer hurdle at Tipperary - he's a handicapper

El Fabiolo has never seen the hill

Appreciate it has run three times in 7 years and has absolute nothing of any note behind it in those 3. He hasn't yet proved to be the same horse he was when winning the supreme

JDB has 1 run in 2 years beating nothing and is all hype from his move over from France, but again we know horses getting injured multiple times rarely maintain their ability

Journey with me - a hyped donkey who is a cliff horse for most

Flame Bearer - lost to Brides Hill who couldn't get within 19 lengths of ADV running in circles

Fil Dor - 4 year old who is going to lose his allowances and not be good enough like most 5 year olds

[Lobos]

flame bearer? after his improved performace lto

It's just impossible isn't it! TWAR !!

[Lobos]

Thanks Hurricane. Based on that Sir G is by far the best of a bad bunch !!

[Craigy14]

Honestly if we are crabbing Sir Gerhard a dual festival winner who has lost only lost twice both at a Punchestown which is known as a favourites graveyard because of horses being over the top who an earth are we supposed to fancy?

Mighty Potter who pulled up on his one festival visit and has also been beaten by the beast that is Statuaire and MMM?

Dysart Dynamo who has one festival visit and fell before coming a 53 length 5th in his only other grade 1 appearance.

It's barely 6 months since Saint Roi finished 3rd in a summer hurdle at Tipperary - he's a handicapper

El Fabiolo has never seen the hill

Appreciate it has run three times in 7 years and has absolute nothing of any note behind it in those 3. He hasn't yet proved to be the same horse he was when winning the supreme

JDB has 1 run in 2 years beating nothing and is all hype from his move over from France, but again we know horses getting injured multiple times rarely maintain their ability

Journey with me - a hyped donkey who is a cliff horse for most

Flame Bearer - lost to Brides Hill who couldn't get within 19 lengths of ADV running in circles

Fil Dor - 4 year old who is going to lose his allowances and not be good enough like most 5 year olds

Far too much of being ‘over the top’ imo.

He had 4 bumper runs (flat races ), then 3 hurdle runs prior to Punchestown.

He may just not like the track, peaked at Cheltenham and had nothing left to give, but it still adds question marks to people’s opinion.

We could go round in circles on all his novices to be honest, form, Cheltenham wins, lack of runs etc etc but he’s got that much ammunition punters are going to pick holes in horses where there might not be too much. That’s why sometimes I just think visual impression can be key to forming an opinion, imo.

I think given his price, injury niggles, people have a right to question him.

[Hurricane fly]

Far too much of being ‘over the top’ imo.

He had 4 bumper runs (flat races ), then 3 hurdle runs prior to Punchestown.

He may just not like the track, peaked at Cheltenham and had nothing left to give, but it still adds question marks to people’s opinion.

We could go round in circles on all his novices to be honest, form, Cheltenham wins, lack of runs etc etc but he’s got that much ammunition punters are going to pick holes in horses where there might not be too much. That’s why sometimes I just think visual impression can be key to forming an opinion, imo.

I think given his price, injury niggles, people have a right to question him.

No problem with people saying they are concerned about him having 1 run this season but people saying he's beaten nothing then championing horses that have actually won nothing appears to be pure pocket talk now his price has been trimmed.

He was 8/1 yesterday for the Turners yesterday which suggests to me people have put thrust money down as much as anything.

[nortonscoin200]

Honestly if we are crabbing Sir Gerhard a dual festival winner who has lost only lost twice both at a Punchestown which is known as a favourites graveyard because of horses being over the top who an earth are we supposed to fancy?

Mighty Potter who pulled up on his one festival visit and has also been beaten by the beast that is Statuaire and MMM?

Dysart Dynamo who has one festival visit and fell before coming a 53 length 5th in his only other grade 1 appearance.

It's barely 6 months since Saint Roi finished 3rd in a summer hurdle at Tipperary - he's a handicapper

El Fabiolo has never seen the hill

Appreciate it has run three times in 7 years and has absolute nothing of any note behind it in those 3. He hasn't yet proved to be the same horse he was when winning the supreme

JDB has 1 run in 2 years beating nothing and is all hype from his move over from France, but again we know horses getting injured multiple times rarely maintain their ability

Journey with me - a hyped donkey who is a cliff horse for most

Flame Bearer - lost to Brides Hill who couldn't get within 19 lengths of ADV running in circles

Fil Dor - 4 year old who is going to lose his allowances and not be good enough like most 5 year olds

Love the post Hurricane fly - you very neatly put things in perspective.

I've only got one quibble - your take on Appreciate It.

In my book he falls into almost the same category as Sir Gerhard.

Only beaten by Ferny Hollow in the bumper, a terrific winner of the Supreme (however poor the opposition, he was impressive) and beaten less than 10 lengths by a dual Champion Hurdler on his first run for a year.

I don't think the evidence support your claim that Appreciate It hasn't yet proved he's the same horse that won the Supreme.

Since Appreciate It began hurdling his rprs (up to and including the Supreme) read: 140, 156, 150, 163.

His post-Supreme rprs are 156, 154, 152 - pretty impressive numbers and all 3 among his top 5 career performances according to rprs.

And based on the visual evidence of those wide-margin chase wins it's surely difficult for anyone to suggest those numbers are likely to be anywhere near the limit of his potential as a chaser.

Reckon he's got to be added to the if not Appreciate It who are we supposed to fancy club

[Carnage at Taunton]

No problem with people saying they are concerned about him having 1 run this season but people saying he's beaten nothing then championing horses that have actually won nothing appears to be pure pocket talk now his price has been trimmed.

He was 8/1 yesterday for the Turners yesterday which suggests to me people have put thrust money down as much as anything.

Not sure why pocket talk has to be mentioned, well not as far as I’m concerned.
Im just saying it as it is, reading the form book, and taking into account his problems and length of absence.

[Quevega]

Honestly if we are crabbing Sir Gerhard a dual festival winner who has lost only lost twice both at a Punchestown which is known as a favourites graveyard because of horses being over the top who an earth are we supposed to fancy?

Mighty Potter who pulled up on his one festival visit and has also been beaten by the beast that is Statuaire and MMM?

Dysart Dynamo who has one festival visit and fell before coming a 53 length 5th in his only other grade 1 appearance.

It's barely 6 months since Saint Roi finished 3rd in a summer hurdle at Tipperary - he's a handicapper

El Fabiolo has never seen the hill

Appreciate it has run three times in 7 years and has absolute nothing of any note behind it in those 3. He hasn't yet proved to be the same horse he was when winning the supreme

JDB has 1 run in 2 years beating nothing and is all hype from his move over from France, but again we know horses getting injured multiple times rarely maintain their ability

Journey with me - a hyped donkey who is a cliff horse for most

Flame Bearer - lost to Brides Hill who couldn't get within 19 lengths of ADV running in circles

Fil Dor - 4 year old who is going to lose his allowances and not be good enough like most 5 year olds

Excellent stuff from the fly.
Very good points, well made.
Shows how perspective can differ or be slanted however you want it too, if you really try.
I think the fact that they are all really novices is important though.
Sir G is on the back foot due to him only appearing today, lets hope he jumps brilliantly.
Some folk will have taken the triple figures on the exchange for him, I'm sure.

[ComplyOrDie]

Honestly if we are crabbing Sir Gerhard a dual festival winner who has lost only lost twice both at a Punchestown which is known as a favourites graveyard because of horses being over the top who an earth are we supposed to fancy?

Mighty Potter who pulled up on his one festival visit and has also been beaten by the beast that is Statuaire and MMM?

Dysart Dynamo who has one festival visit and fell before coming a 53 length 5th in his only other grade 1 appearance.

It's barely 6 months since Saint Roi finished 3rd in a summer hurdle at Tipperary - he's a handicapper

El Fabiolo has never seen the hill

Appreciate it has run three times in 7 years and has absolute nothing of any note behind it in those 3. He hasn't yet proved to be the same horse he was when winning the supreme

JDB has 1 run in 2 years beating nothing and is all hype from his move over from France, but again we know horses getting injured multiple times rarely maintain their ability

Journey with me - a hyped donkey who is a cliff horse for most

Flame Bearer - lost to Brides Hill who couldn't get within 19 lengths of ADV running in circles

Fil Dor - 4 year old who is going to lose his allowances and not be good enough like most 5 year olds

Love this post, even if I am a big fan of DD and you've slayed him

But yeah, I don't quite get the crabbing of Sir G either. I backed him yesterday for the Turners because it's quite simple for me, he wins well and turns up at the festival or he doesn't, of course, I could have backed him for the wrong race but that's me hoping DD is Willies number one Arkle horse! I also backed him for the Turners because I don't recall Willie dropping a horse from the Ballymore to the Arkle (yes, I know Faugheen went to the Champion Hurdle ).

[Rooster Booster]

Honestly if we are crabbing Sir Gerhard a dual festival winner who has lost only lost twice both at a Punchestown which is known as a favourites graveyard because of horses being over the top who an earth are we supposed to fancy?

Mighty Potter who pulled up on his one festival visit and has also been beaten by the beast that is Statuaire and MMM?

Dysart Dynamo who has one festival visit and fell before coming a 53 length 5th in his only other grade 1 appearance.

It's barely 6 months since Saint Roi finished 3rd in a summer hurdle at Tipperary - he's a handicapper

El Fabiolo has never seen the hill

Appreciate it has run three times in 7 years and has absolute nothing of any note behind it in those 3. He hasn't yet proved to be the same horse he was when winning the supreme

JDB has 1 run in 2 years beating nothing and is all hype from his move over from France, but again we know horses getting injured multiple times rarely maintain their ability

Journey with me - a hyped donkey who is a cliff horse for most

Flame Bearer - lost to Brides Hill who couldn't get within 19 lengths of ADV running in circles

Fil Dor - 4 year old who is going to lose his allowances and not be good enough like most 5 year olds

Not sure if you were including me in the crabbing pocket talk comments or not so thought I’d clarify first before I respond

[Craigy14]

No problem with people saying they are concerned about him having 1 run this season but people saying he's beaten nothing then championing horses that have actually won nothing appears to be pure pocket talk now his price has been trimmed.

He was 8/1 yesterday for the Turners yesterday which suggests to me people have put thrust money down as much as anything.

I’m certainly not crabbing his form, especially form on the track as he’s 2/2.

His visual performances have been enough to know he’s top class.

My main issue would be the setback and having one run but he’s with no better trainer.

As Q has said, with novices I think we are all too quick to crab ones form and not another with similar levels.

[Hurricane fly]

The RPRs however are boosted by two factors

1) The move to open company
2) The move to chasing

Both of which typically generate higher RPRs than novice hurdles, it's obviously not as extreme as NH vs Flat but I do believe chasers are given higher ratings vs hurdlers in general. For example I'd have his novice hurdle win at DRF as better than his two chase wins but is rated lower.

[Carnage at Taunton]

We can all look at form differently.
When it comes to crabbing that form, to me that’s simply having a view on it. Then weighing that view with the value that may or may not be available.

In the case of Sir G, imo his form plus his absence from the track does not warrant prices available now or indeed were.

So personally I am crabbing his form in comparison to prices.
Probably more crabbing the bookies than anything.
As far as Sir G is concerned I hope he runs a good race today and gives us another exciting one to enjoy looking forward to seeing in top races.

[Odin]

The RPRs however are boosted by two factors

1) The move to open company
2) The move to chasing

Both of which typically generate higher RPRs than novice hurdles, it's obviously not as extreme as NH vs Flat but I do believe chasers are given higher ratings vs hurdlers in general. For example I'd have his novice hurdle win at DRF as better than his two chase wins but is rated lower.

When looking at peak performances only (i.e. those within 10lb of the season best), the average chase performance is rated 4lbs higher than hurdles (for interest, bumpers are on average 7lbs worse than hurdlers). There is only a 0.5lb difference between novice chasers and open chasers - note, this accounts for age and class of race but doesn't provide a direct comparison of Grade 1 novice vs Grade 1 open as I didn't set up the data that way so I'd be less sure of the figure in terms of your specific point. Figures are RPRs.