2023 Novice Chasers

[FinalFurlong91]

Something had to give and he's the one.

I hope so, as I have nothing on him for the arkle only backed him for the turners

Think 2m4f would suit him perfectly, pop away then do them for speed

He wins the flogas he's 6/4 at best, shorter if he's beaten mighty potter and James du berlais.

Dysart/el fab arkle
Appreciate it/JDG OR SG? Turners

With cocooner out they may be tempted to try JDB in the BANC if hes less fresh in the flogas

the DRF is gonna blow these novice chase markets apart

[YoungHustler]

I must be in the minority who thinks that Appreciate It still has it to prove. That Champion Hurdle run last year was awful. Not a great race in my opinion and therefore to finish 7th behind 125 and 150/1 shots was poor. Willie can ready a horse after a long lay off so I wouldn't use that as an excuse. Is AI as good as people think? I guess we'll find out in the Flogas and I could end up looking very silly!

[Benjy23]

I must be in the minority who thinks that Appreciate It still has it to prove. That Champion Hurdle run last year was awful. Not a great race in my opinion and therefore to finish 7th behind 125 and 150/1 shots was poor. Willie can ready a horse after a long lay off so I wouldn't use that as an excuse. Is AI as good as people think? I guess we'll find out in the Flogas and I could end up looking very silly!

Aye, there's still a lot to prove here imo. He'll go off fav at DRF and I'll be looking to take him on there.

He's one of the only houses I've backed any race but that was always as more of a saver.

[Jrow]

Sir Gerhard being on the scene again has really done my head in. Surely he wont go for the Turners now if Appreciate is also. Leaving the Arkle, which would be a big kicks in the balls for my Ante post slips

[opatcho]

If Sir G turned up in the Arkle, I'd be surprised.
He'd have to

1) come out, after a disrupted campaign and run well - he's a class horse so I expect him to do this
2) jump well in his first chase start, he wasnt exactly the slickest over a hurdle so would need to show more over fences
3) looks like its one run before the fez, thats some ask for him to run in the Arkle and run/jump well after 1 prior start over fences ("but Western Warehorse did it....")
4) Mullins already has a fair few darts to fire at the Arkle

All this makes me think, do any of these have a chance - we're all struggling to work out who's Mullin's number 1 Arkle horse. He has the numbers, one of them could pop out and stand heads and shoulders above the rest. But its starting to feel a little like last March, only that the field looks better. 1 GB horse that has had this target in mind, jumps really well, highly rated etc versus a bunch of Mullin's horses, all having some sort of question mark

DD - heart problem, has he finally settled, how will he cope in a better race NTO
Fab - a little underwhelming first time out, feels like 2nd or 3rd choice until we find out at the DRF
Sir G - issues, yet to run, trip, etc etc. Arkle, Turners, BANC, Stayers, CH... doesnt fill me with much confidence tbh
AI - appears to be some confidence around his chances, but... what race?!

I thought the novice hurdle was mess in terms of mullins Bingo, but this is crazy lol!

[charlie]

I must be in the minority who thinks that Appreciate It still has it to prove. That Champion Hurdle run last year was awful. Not a great race in my opinion and therefore to finish 7th behind 125 and 150/1 shots was poor. Willie can ready a horse after a long lay off so I wouldn't use that as an excuse. Is AI as good as people think? I guess we'll find out in the Flogas and I could end up looking very silly!

Appreciate It has had two 'blips' in his career. Once on debut after a 622 day break and the Champion Hurdle where he finished 9L behind Honeysuckle having done his own work in front before getting tired. Other than that his form figures read 11211111, but you've chosen the champion as the example he's got it all to prove? It's a really weird race to pick as an example. A horse can't really be thrown into deeper water than a Champion Hurdle with no prep. We all know trainers can work hard at home but little compensates for race fitness, especially at the very top level, so saying 'Willie can ready a horse' doesn't mean much, nor does it mean the lay isn't a legitimate excuse

[Lobos]

Sir Gerhard being on the scene again has really done my head in. Surely he wont go for the Turners now if Appreciate is also. Leaving the Arkle, which would be a big kicks in the balls for my Ante post slips

No reason why he and Appreciate it couldn't go Turners. Willie is already mob handed in the Arkle. Turners is still fav imo.

[YoungHustler]

Appreciate It has had two 'blips' in his career. Once on debut after a 622 day break and the Champion Hurdle where he finished 9L behind Honeysuckle having done his own work in front before getting tired. Other than that his form figures read 11211111, but you've chosen the champion as the example he's got it all to prove? It's a really weird race to pick as an example. A horse can't really be thrown into deeper water than a Champion Hurdle with no prep. We all know trainers can work hard at home but little compensates for race fitness, especially at the very top level, so saying 'Willie can ready a horse' doesn't mean much, nor does it mean the lay isn't a legitimate excuse

Race fitness is not an excuse these days and I don't really think any trainer would be letting his horse run in something like the Champion Hurdle unless the horse was 100%, especially not Willie Mullins, eg. Quevega. It's not as if AI was unfancied that day either as he was well supported and went off a very solid 2nd favourite. I don't think the Champion Hurdle is a weird race to pick at all either. He's done is own work in front previously so this is not an excuse and did he get tired because he was not good enough? I'd prefer to think he got outpaced when the heat got turned up and going up in distance to a mid trip or further will suit him much better. 9l behind Honeysuckle is not good imo because of the horses he finished behind. That Champion Hurdle was the worst in the last 10 years based on the winner's RPR.

The other theory I have is that AI was much more precocious in his novice hurdle year twinned with that year having a poor crop meant AI beat everything easily and looked a monster.

I could very easily be wrong(not for the first time) and AI turns out to be a star. Can't wait to find out!!

[FinalFurlong91]

Race fitness is not an excuse these days and I don't really think any trainer would be letting his horse run in something like the Champion Hurdle unless the horse was 100%, especially not Willie Mullins, eg. Quevega. It's not as if AI was unfancied that day either as he was well supported and went off a very solid 2nd favourite. I don't think the Champion Hurdle is a weird race to pick at all either. He's done is own work in front previously so this is not an excuse and did he get tired because he was not good enough? I'd prefer to think he got outpaced when the heat got turned up and going up in distance to a mid trip or further will suit him much better. 9l behind Honeysuckle is not good imo because of the horses he finished behind. That Champion Hurdle was the worst in the last 10 years based on the winner's RPR.

The other theory I have is that AI was much more precocious in his novice hurdle year twinned with that year having a poor crop meant AI beat everything easily and looked a monster.

I could very easily be wrong(not for the first time) and AI turns out to be a star. Can't wait to find out!!

Just because some horses can run to their best fresh doesn't mean they all can

They are all different

And Appreciate It is a big lad so is more likely to need a run

You may be right but not for that reason imo

[charlie]

Just because some horses can run to their best fresh doesn't mean they all can

They are all different

And Appreciate It is a big lad so is more likely to need a run

You may be right but not for that reason imo

Great response, couldn't put it better

[charlie]

Race fitness is not an excuse these days and I don't really think any trainer would be letting his horse run in something like the Champion Hurdle unless the horse was 100%, especially not Willie Mullins, eg. Quevega. It's not as if AI was unfancied that day either as he was well supported and went off a very solid 2nd favourite. I don't think the Champion Hurdle is a weird race to pick at all either. He's done is own work in front previously so this is not an excuse and did he get tired because he was not good enough? I'd prefer to think he got outpaced when the heat got turned up and going up in distance to a mid trip or further will suit him much better. 9l behind Honeysuckle is not good imo because of the horses he finished behind. That Champion Hurdle was the worst in the last 10 years based on the winner's RPR.

The other theory I have is that AI was much more precocious in his novice hurdle year twinned with that year having a poor crop meant AI beat everything easily and looked a monster.

I could very easily be wrong(not for the first time) and AI turns out to be a star. Can't wait to find out!!

Fitness is fundamental to performance in pretty much every sport and you can't beat a bit of bully

People often sweep fitness under the rug as an excuse but at the very top level margins matter. Trainers are always saying 'get a run into him' or 'he needed a run' or 'he'll come on for the run' because race fitness prepares a horse physically to run at their very best. Trainers will take shots in big races where they feel they have prepared the horse the best they can, but they wont know where they stand until after the race. Ask any runner or professional athlete and they'll tell you being 80% fit and being 100% fit are a world apart, so for me it's an odd race to pick as his 7th is explained by an interrupted prep and other than that his form figures read 11211111.

I hear what you are saying - 1111 over hurdles doesn't mean much in a poor crop of novice hurdlers and the CH was the worst winning RPR in 10 years. I think most would agree AI wasn't competing against the very best hurdlers and your RPR stat is a fact, but, you can't have it both ways.

What about AI running to a better RPR over xmas in that G1 than any other novice hurdler in 10 years? Or running to the same RPR as Vautour and Champagne Fever at the G1 at the DRF? Or posting a a better winning RPR in the Supreme than Shishkin, Douvan and Vautour? You haven't chosen to talk about any of these.

[opatcho]

Loads of validate points, and I think there's no question that AI is a class horse.
I just think its difficult to be massively confident on whether he still retains that ability, from 2 years ago, and whether he has enough ability still to beat the current crop of novice chasers. I can see him being very very competitive in the Turners, less so in the Arkle. Then again, this is on the assumption that the going is good to soft. This whole game will change if we get soft to heavy, where a horse like AI who looks powerful over 2 miles in slower conditions (most of his form is over soft) may shorten for the Arkle - I would certainly become more interesting in him for the Arkle if it was testing.

Very difficult at this stage, for me so much depending on the going at the fez and the performance at the DRF.

[YoungHustler]

I hear what you are saying - 1111 over hurdles doesn't mean much in a poor crop of novice hurdlers and the CH was the worst winning RPR in 10 years. I think most would agree AI wasn't competing against the very best hurdlers and your RPR stat is a fact, but, you can't have it both ways.

What about AI running to a better RPR over xmas in that G1 than any other novice hurdler in 10 years? Or running to the same RPR as Vautour and Champagne Fever at the G1 at the DRF? Or posting a a better winning RPR in the Supreme than Shishkin, Douvan and Vautour? You haven't chosen to talk about any of these.

I was just using AI's most recent run in a proper competitive race, albeit one after a long lay off.

Regarding his novice hurdle year, there's no doubting he was a brilliant novice based on the RPRs he achieved. However, my opinion is that he was already a man running against a poor crop of boys. Therefore he was achieving those great RPRs in novice hurdles when he was already way above the level of a novice. This leads to my theory that l wanted to see improvement in his open year rather than just to expect it. His Christmas novice Grp1 you mentioned got an RPR of 156 which was the same as his Champion Hurdle run and 156 is his average RPR from his last 4 hurdle runs. So did AI just run to form achieving 156 in the Champion Hurdle or was it more down to fitness? We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

With the likes of Shishkin, Douvan and Vautor, they weren't already the finished animals that AI was in their novice hurdle years imo so it was easy to see that there was going to be much improvement when those 3 went chasing which was proved by them going on to achieve RPRs of 170+. Each of those 3 were younger than AI when they ran in their Supreme's and by the time they were 7(same age as when AI won his Supreme), they had all achieved RPRs of 175 or more. Now that doesn't mean AI can't go on and post +175 RPRs as he hasn't had the opportunity yet but I would like to see him go and do it first rather than expect him to be able to do it. That is why I made the early decision not to cover him for anything until I see him in a proper race.

Looking at this year, I think Jonbon is the most developed Arkle horse and I make him the most likely winner but can see Dysart Dynamo and particularly El Fabiolo having more improvement in them next year. I also think Mighty Potter has shown tremendous improvement this year and the scary thing is that I don't think he'll reach his peak until next season. It's all just my opinion and I'm often wrong but my punting record is decent so it's not all bad!

[Lobos]

Boothill v Tommy's Oscar at Donny Saturday. Should give us a little take re the Jonbon v Banbridge form.

[Speedy17]

Boothill v Tommy's Oscar at Donny Saturday. Should give us a little take re the Jonbon v Banbridge form.

Agree, although fighting out a finish for 2nd behind Haddex Des Obeaux won't really boost either?