2023 Novice Chasers

[AaronLad]

You wouldn't think so with him only starting off at 2m. I would say it's very rare and maybe not even seen before that a horse starts off at 2m and then goes into a G1 at Cheltenham over 3m when he's never raced over that distance before other than a PTP. It would completely throw up a new occurrence never seen before. Horse's would normally start at 2.5 if they are to race over 3m in a G1 later that season. And to jump from 2m to 3m G1 in one step would have never been heard

I heard kauto star did it once.

I get the point your trying to make.
i'm just kidding.

[Quevega]

What makes you think this Q?

Willie has never sent a winner of the Ballymore to the Arkle and the only winner he's had that has gone back down in trip at the festival is Faugheen. He was a freak, and Sir Gerhard is definitely not in the same mould as him, IMO.

His performance in the Ballymore looked more one of a stayer than anything else, too, to my eye. I would say Turners or further and the Arkle would be the last of the Novice Chase races he'd end up in (NH Chase excluded).

Ruby mentioned Sir G as the biggest danger to Jonbon.
Where Ballymore winners went is of no interest in my mind.
His likely only prep run is going to be over 2 miles.
I think there are clear signals that Appreciate It and El Fabiolo might not be running in the arkle.
Or at the very least, if DD and El Fab meet in Dublin, the loser might not go unless it's very close.
The markets are starting to hint the arkle is most likely.

His performance last season was of a class horse, there were a lot on here saying he was all speed before last years Ballymore and I thought he was a certainty. Even after the ground went heavy.
You'll know I'm not as trip obsessed as many.
He'll have to jump really well, no matter what or I think he might turn up in a hurdle race.

[Lobos]

You wouldn't think so with him only starting off at 2m. I would say it's very rare and maybe not even seen before that a horse starts off at 2m and then goes into a G1 at Cheltenham over 3m when he's never raced over that distance before other than a PTP. It would completely throw up a new occurrence never seen before. Horse's would normally start at 2.5 if they are to race over 3m in a G1 later that season. And to jump from 2m to 3m G1 in one step would have never been heard

He's been injured though so he has to prep somewhere and soon and they are hardly going to throw him into the deep end on his chasing debut. His Ballymore win in a bog suggests to me he does have stamina . Willie also has zilch for the BANC if GDM goes NHC and JDB Turner's. With Willie anything can happen.

[Quevega]

He's been injured though so he has to prep somewhere and soon and they are hardly going to throw him into the deep end on his chasing debut. His Ballymore win in a bog suggests to me he does have stamina . Willie also has zilch for the BANC if GDM goes NHC and JDB Turner's. With Willie anything can happen.

Injuries and absentees may make all the difference in where any of Willie's go.
However, I could only see Sir Gerhard running in the Banc if a couple of injuries happen, and even then I think he would have to have won his beginners and looked a little novicey jumping.
And connections decide to just have a dart, as he's lost his novice tag.

[Jrow]

Can anyone see Appreciate It being supplemented for the BANC at all (silly i know, but he does like to waste owners money). It was interesting listening to Patrick Mullins on ATR mention AI and 3 miles in the same breath. I just think willie will want to be splitting his top notchers up; them being DD, SG & AI. I cant for the life of me see any of them three not having Townend on board so its a case of who goes to the BANC between AI and SG. I know SG has the entry, but would Willie really be sending him over 3 miles at Cheltenham after the prep hes had. Where as Appreciate It will be having his 3rd run of the season at the DRF and likely to be over 2.5

The green horses will be second strings id imagine in the Arkle and Turners

[Lobos]

GDM out to 7/4 with Coral for NHC. Into 4's today with PP for BANC.

[jrjr]

Ruby mentioned Sir G as the biggest danger to Jonbon.
Where Ballymore winners went is of no interest in my mind.
His likely only prep run is going to be over 2 miles.
I think there are clear signals that Appreciate It and El Fabiolo might not be running in the arkle.
Or at the very least, if DD and El Fab meet in Dublin, the loser might not go unless it's very close.
The markets are starting to hint the arkle is most likely.

His performance last season was of a class horse, there were a lot on here saying he was all speed before last years Ballymore and I thought he was a certainty. Even after the ground went heavy.
You'll know I'm not as trip obsessed as many.
He'll have to jump really well, no matter what or I think he might turn up in a hurdle race.

Nice summary, Q. This is pretty much where I'd got to over the past few days - thought I had a strangehold on the Arkle and now have a SG shaped fly in the ointment. Luckily he can still be added at a price which doesn't eat into my (anticipated) profits too much. Will need to be done prior to his first run though. Can see him being nibbled in over the next 5 or so days.

[Can't Catch Me]

The Mullins riddle just keeps getting harder. It must be unprecedented for him to have 5 potentially elite level novices who could legitimately go off single figures prices and win the Arkle / Tuners

[Benjy23]

GDM out to 7/4 with Coral for NHC. Into 4's today with PP for BANC.

Came right in for BANC on the exchange as well and has now drifted back out. Not sure anyone knows anything on this one.

[Birds Nest]

I know daryl jacob has mentioned the turners on more than one occasion for jdb but imo he would be the one to go banc for willie if he decides to split horses up and if el fab does get put into the turners they would ,imo definately move jdb up to the banc.
this is where im at right now could change of course after the drf.
Arkle
DD sir g turners appreciate it elfab banc jdb

[Inglis Drever]

I like City Chief for the NH chase, but I know Henderson doesn’t have much history with the race. What amateurs is Nicky likely to get as I don’t know of too many associated with the yard?
or will the owners maybe able to persuade someone from the Mullins connection?

[Quevega]

I like City Chief for the NH chase, but I know Henderson doesn’t have much history with the race. What amateurs is Nicky likely to get as I don’t know of too many associated with the yard?
or will the owners maybe able to persuade someone from the Mullins connection?

I looked at him the other day as I think the race might cut up and he'd be an each way option.
But even though the entry is interesting.
I backed off, as the same owner obviously owns GDM & Ramillies.

[Inglis Drever]

Yea on that basis I thought GDM would look to go Brown, and that leaves two (all be it lesser) darts at the NH chase.
If that were the case then I’m not sure who would ride city chief?
Who would Derek O’Connor and Barry O’Neill ride?

[Quevega]

Yea on that basis I thought GDM would look to go Brown, and that leaves two (all be it lesser) darts at the NH chase.
If that were the case then I’m not sure who would ride city chief?
Who would Derek O’Connor and Barry O’Neill ride?

I'd be very surprised if they weren't snapped up by Irish based stables.
So with no waley cohen I'm not sure what amateurs Henderson uses.

[Inglis Drever]

Yea that’s where I’m at, I like the horse and can see him staying on late past beaten horses, but not sure on jockey bookings