2023 Novice Chasers

[Eggs]

I could be wrong but don’t think I’ve actually seen a quote where robcour have said those two horses are better than jwm and they fancy them more, thought it was just something like “gentlemannsgame looks like a banc horse”, but I could be wrong. And apparently Gerri could be nh chase bound but that hasn’t been confirmed.

personally I think people are letting their disappointment that jwm doesn’t look as special as people thought he might be cloud their judgement, when the question should just be “can he win the banc”.

gentlemansgame is another that I think impervious would have saw off comfortably over 2m 3f as I just think he’s not very quick at all, so fancying him but ruling out jwm isn’t something I’d agree with, but that’s just imo.

….a link to the interview with Rob Acheson is in post 1 of the stable tour thread, but from what I recall he said; GMG was the novice he was most looking forward to this season & he would prefer the Irish National to NHC for GC because of prize money.

[Quevega]

I'd have to watch something of Henry's actually run its race after travelling over before backing anything of his. It might be easy to say he'll fix it for the Festival, but there have been four different occasions now where his have all run (if you can even say that) deplorably. Huge fan of his, but Christ, they've been poor.

What do you think is happening ?

Is he making them swim across ?
Flying economy instead of business class ?
Putting them to sleep for too long or not long enough ?

Seriously though, I think it's coincidental myself, but also a concern.

But I'd imagine whatever he's been doing, especially if he's been doing anything differently to what he's always done previously.
He'll revert back.

[Istabraq]

What do you think is happening ?

Is he making them swim across ?
Flying economy instead of business class ?
Putting them to sleep for too long or not long enough ?

Seriously though, I think it's coincidental myself, but also a concern.

But I'd imagine whatever he's been doing, especially if he's been doing anything differently to what he's always done previously.
He'll revert back.

I can remember (way) in the past yards having issues after changing a feed or hay, could be something as simple as that, though I'd imagine changes like are made after Punchestown and not mid season...

[opatcho]

I’ve already backed him at 25s and 20 for the banc, and I’m more than happy to hold onto those slips, I’ve always thought he looks like a horse who will improve for 3m, and nothing about today’s run over what I feel was an inadequate trip is putting me off him. If something like appreciate it turned up in the banc then I wouldn’t fancy Jwm to beat him, but if the best he is going to face are the ones who currently head the market then I think 20/1 is a good price.

people are saying on one hand that if impervious went for the turners that she would be among the favorites currently, but at the same time ruling jwm out of winning what looks a like it could be a weaker race over a trip that most of us feel he would be better suited too. Doesn’t totally add up imo.

fair play

the main difference is, Impervious is on the up, she could further improve, we don’t know where here ceiling is. She won yesterday whilst being 8lbs worse off, he has a chance in the turners if it cut up, those 7lbs off her back would make her competitive - wouldn’t have her as fav, either do the bookies, she’s 6-7th fav in the NRNB market

JWM, I just don’t see him improving much more. He didn’t improve much over hurdles

Yup, JVM could improve 3-5lbs for stepping up in trip.
A possibility but I have to weigh that up. Feels exposed to me

Also, one to factor in, he appears ground dependant. Heavily beaten over 3m over good. Prevously withdrawn twice due to ground (good/yeilding). Best performance on soft/heavy

You’d probably want to see Henry’s yard coming into some form by march and the BANC to be as testing as last year for this fella to feature.

At least your slips at still alive at the bigger price

[opatcho]

I can remember (way) in the past yards having issues after changing a feed or hay, could be something as simple as that, though I'd imagine changes like are made after Punchestown and not mid season...

Nicholls 11 months ago

"Something is not right somewhere," Nicholls continued. "We are now checking out the hay and feed. I do remember that we ran some tests in 2015-2016 after only three winners in January and discovered that the hay was low in potassium and calcium and quickly put that right. We are all over it, trying to get the answer.

[Kevloaf]

My general stance on Ballymore horses... harsh, but this is how I see the race

- The Ballymore is a second tier race, which from time to time is a race won by a decent animal. It caters for horses that arent good enough for the supreme and horses that do not stay the distance of the AB.

Simonsig, Faugheen, Yorkhill, Samcro, Envoi Allen, Bob Olinger and Sir Gerhard all second tier horses?

Much love, but that's is just a blatent incorrect opinion on the race. You can't just say 'from time to time', that's 7 since 2012 that are very good isn't it?


You feel those horses listed above weren't good enough for a Supreme but also didn't have the stamina for the 'better' Albert Bartlett?


Amazed no-one else pulled you on it




Much love, of course

[Istabraq]

Simonsig, Faugheen, Yorkhill, Samcro, Envoi Allen, Bob Olinger and Sir Gerhard all second tier horses?

Much love, but that's is just a blatent incorrect opinion on the race. You can't just say 'from time to time', that's 7 since 2012 that are very good isn't it?


You feel those horses listed above weren't good enough for a Supreme but also didn't have the stamina for the 'better' Albert Bartlett?


Amazed no-one else pulled you on it




Much love, of course

Cough cough……….Istabraq.

Actually, I’ve always said the most impressive winner I ever saw was Monsignor, such a shame injury ruined his career, always said he was a horse booked to go down as one of the al time greats.

Hardy Eustace also won this before winning a Champion Hurdle…

[Kevloaf]

Cough cough……….Istabraq.

Actually, I’ve always said the most impressive winner I ever saw was Monsignor, such a shame injury ruined his career, always said he was a horse booked to go down as one of the al time greats.

Hardy Eustace also won this before winning a Champion Hurdle…

I only went back to 2012 just to prove a point, baffling to me that the Ballymore wouldn't be considered a top race. ..... I didn't even include The New One

[opatcho]

Simonsig, Faugheen, Yorkhill, Samcro, Envoi Allen, Bob Olinger and Sir Gerhard all second tier horses?

Much love, but that's is just a blatent incorrect opinion on the race. You can't just say 'from time to time', that's 7 since 2012 that are very good isn't it?

You feel those horses listed above weren't good enough for a Supreme but also didn't have the stamina for the 'better' Albert Bartlett?

Amazed no-one else pulled you on it

Much love, of course

"The Ballymore is a second tier race, which from time to time is a race won by a decent animal"

Ok, didnt really come out properly, so will explain on my point

The Supreme and AB are the daddies, these are the graded races which tend to produce a number of top rated horses. Those horses are more likely to come back the next season and win.

The Ballymore is a second tier race. Its the Ryanair. Its the Turners. Its the lesser race of the three.
The Ballymore consists of, normally, a bunch of horses that arent good enough for the supreme or AB.... AND (depending on the year) a top rated horse that could have ran and gone close to winning the Supreme - Faugheen, Yorkhill, Samcro, Envoi Allen, Bob Olinger and Sir Gerhard. Simonsig was before my time ;-)

Its why I was quick to back Sir G for the Turners.

My point being, Facile Vega is that horse that could pop into the Ballymore... and win it.

Lets do it this way, could you name one horse in the Ballymore market (excl. FV) that could run in the supreme and win it.

Hermes Allen
Champ Kiely
Impaire Et Passe
Gaelic Warrior
Inthepocket
Irish Point
.....


So.... from time to time, whether thats 50% over the last 10 years or 75%.... the Ballymore is dominated by a horse that was at the top of the Supreme and Ballymore markets, and could have ran close in the Supreme.
As a result, when I'm looking at potential Ante Post bets, I'll take that top horse from the Ballymore and leave the rest alone

[Kevloaf]

"The Ballymore is a second tier race, which from time to time is a race won by a decent animal"

Ok, didnt really come out properly, so will explain on my point

The Supreme and AB are the daddies, these are the graded races which tend to produce a number of top rated horses. Those horses are more likely to come back the next season and win.

The Ballymore is a second tier race. Its the Ryanair. Its the Turners. Its the lesser race of the three.
The Ballymore consists of, normally, a bunch of horses that arent good enough for the supreme or AB.... AND (depending on the year) a top rated horse that could have ran and gone close to winning the Supreme - Faugheen, Yorkhill, Samcro, Envoi Allen, Bob Olinger and Sir Gerhard. Simonsig was before my time ;-)

Its why I was quick to back Sir G for the Turners.

My point being, Facile Vega is that horse that could pop into the Ballymore... and win it.

Lets do it this way, could you name one horse in the Ballymore market (excl. FV) that could run in the supreme and win it.

Hermes Allen
Champ Kiely
Impaire Et Passe
Gaelic Warrior
Inthepocket
Irish Point
.....


So.... from time to time, whether thats 50% over the last 10 years or 75%.... the Ballymore is dominated by a horse that was at the top of the Supreme and Ballymore markets, and could have ran close in the Supreme.
As a result, when I'm looking at potential Ante Post bets, I'll take that top horse from the Ballymore and leave the rest alone

Hold on, you look at the Albert Bartlett as a better race than the Ballymore?

If anything, take your comments about the Ballymore, apply them to the Albert Bartlett and you actually have a moderate point



I disagree that 'its the Ryanair' ..... for novice hurdlers, 3 mile in their career may be too early, and they're trained that way too, to a point....

Not the same as an open intermediate chase.

[opatcho]

Hold on, you look at the Albert Bartlett as a better race than the Ballymore?

If anything, take your comments about the Ballymore, apply them to the Albert Bartlett and you actually have a moderate point



I disagree that 'its the Ryanair' ..... for novice hurdlers, 3 mile in their career may be too early, and they're trained that way too, to a point....

Not the same as an open intermediate chase.

Yup

AB > RSA > Gold Cup
AB > Stayers

I'd do the stats, but I'm in the middle of cooking up some amazing chicken, and I dont want to burn it.

[Kevloaf]

Yup

AB > RSA > Gold Cup
AB > Stayers

I'd do the stats, but I'm in the middle of cooking up some amazing chicken, and I dont want to burn it.

The literal fact that the Ballymore has produced Champion Hurdle winners, and G1 novice chasers too ..... is surely just your bias towards the Gold Cup over anything else?

Which I get... but it's still nonsense to think the Ballymore is there for horses who aren't top class or can't stay 3m ..... too dogmatic to downgrade it to be lower the the AB. It's better, at worst, the same level.

[Istabraq]

The Supreme and AB are the daddies

You know the Albert Bartlett was only created for the 2005 expansion of the festival ?
The Ballymore has been going some 35 years longer.

For a long time the 21f race was the Champion Hurdle breeding ground.

The A Bartlett has gained in class in recent years though which is what you want from G1 festival novice hurdles…

[Benjy23]

Must be a load more Ballymore winners that have gone on to win the Champion Hurdle than Supreme winners that have, in the last 10-15 years at least. One of my favourite races!

Although this year does look a bit crap.

[Black Dog]

And Denman could only finish 2nd in it