2023 Novice Chasers

[riccirich]

Not sure where this sudden raft of negativity is coming from for journey with me, the majority of us on here think he would benefit a lot for a step up to 3m, but losing in a close finish today over 2m 3f to the mares chase fave suddenly means he’s no good?

im not sure he’s ever going to be a gold cup contender myself, but the head of the market in the banc is gaillard du mesnil and thyme hill, one is a second season novice who was well beat in the same race last year, the other doesn’t look the most natural chaser and was trounced on his second start, so it’s hardly a vintage looking renewal at the moment.

if journey with me finds any sort of improvement for the step up in trip I think he’s got a good a shout as any of them going into the the banc.

[opatcho]

are you backing JWM at 20/1 then after that today?

beaten by a mare, with that mare being 8lbs worse off

I haven’t backed JWM, and I wouldn’t be backing it at 20/1

[Saxon Warrior]

There’s degrees of good, I imagine, in the mind of those who don’t fancy a horse to win a Cheltenham Grade 1.

As we mostly have Cheltenham antepost markets, all year round, c/w anything produced at all for Aintree or Fairyhouse or Punchestown markets, we could tend to compartmentalise horses as

Cat.1 - Cheltenham - huge antepost interest/potential
Cat.2 - any other Festival/Graded race - of limited antepost potential

As NH antepost punters, we’re searching primarily for the Cat.1 horses through the season

They’re the Gold standard, to be found and backed, and then defended, promoted, and hopefully cherished.

JWM for some, may now have fallen out of that category, for this season.

[Many Clouds]

Yep JWM has been a bit of a cliff horse for me and has kept drawing me back in, was in far too many multiples last year for the Bartlett which all went down the shit pan, I so wanted him to be really special I think maybe because he started out in that same bumper as Bob Olinger did the previous year, probably because I didn't want to be wrong and not just me but alot on here had so much hope for him but now I have accepted he's just not upto the top level.

Will be leaving him well alone now and won't be backing for anything at the festival no matter the odds and I'm more than happy to part ways.

[FinalFurlong91]

"I so wanted him to be really special I think maybe because he started out in that same bumper as Bob Olinger did the previous year"

he has been a hype horse because of this and has yet to live up to it

I have little doubt that a genuine turner's or BANC candidate would've beaten impervious today given the weights

[riccirich]

are you backing JWM at 20/1 then after that today?

beaten by a mare, with that mare being 8lbs worse off

I haven’t backed JWM, and I wouldn’t be backing it at 20/1

I’ve already backed him at 25s and 20 for the banc, and I’m more than happy to hold onto those slips, I’ve always thought he looks like a horse who will improve for 3m, and nothing about today’s run over what I feel was an inadequate trip is putting me off him. If something like appreciate it turned up in the banc then I wouldn’t fancy Jwm to beat him, but if the best he is going to face are the ones who currently head the market then I think 20/1 is a good price.

people are saying on one hand that if impervious went for the turners that she would be among the favorites currently, but at the same time ruling jwm out of winning what looks a like it could be a weaker race over a trip that most of us feel he would be better suited too. Doesn’t totally add up imo.

[Quevega]

I’ve already backed him at 25s and 20 for the banc, and I’m more than happy to hold onto those slips, I’ve always thought he looks like a horse who will improve for 3m, and nothing about today’s run over what I feel was an inadequate trip is putting me off him. If something like appreciate it turned up in the banc then I wouldn’t fancy Jwm to beat him, but if the best he is going to face are the ones who currently head the market then I think 20/1 is a good price.

people are saying on one hand that if impervious went for the turners that she would be among the favorites currently, but at the same time ruling jwm out of winning what looks a like it could be a weaker race over a trip that most of us feel he would be better suited too. Doesn’t totally add up imo.

You should email Henry,

[Bonjers]

I'd have to watch something of Henry's actually run its race after travelling over before backing anything of his. It might be easy to say he'll fix it for the Festival, but there have been four different occasions now where his have all run (if you can even say that) deplorably. Huge fan of his, but Christ, they've been poor.

[robith]

Not sure where this sudden raft of negativity is coming from for journey with me, the majority of us on here think he would benefit a lot for a step up to 3m, but losing in a close finish today over 2m 3f to the mares chase fave suddenly means he’s no good?

im not sure he’s ever going to be a gold cup contender myself, but the head of the market in the banc is gaillard du mesnil and thyme hill, one is a second season novice who was well beat in the same race last year, the other doesn’t look the most natural chaser and was trounced on his second start, so it’s hardly a vintage looking renewal at the moment.

if journey with me finds any sort of improvement for the step up in trip I think he’s got a good a shout as any of them going into the the banc.

I think a lot of the negativity stems from his trainer's belief that he's a speedy mdi distance type in fairness. I've cashed my Turners bets, but kept my BANC ones

[riccirich]

I think a lot of the negativity stems from his trainer's belief that he's a speedy mdi distance type in fairness. I've cashed my Turners bets, but kept my BANC ones

I totally understand people not fancying him to win the turners, I don’t either.

But people were specifically saying that he won’t have a chance in the banc after yesterday’s performance, which I wouldn’t agree with.

would gaillard du mesnil, thyme hill and the real whacker have all beaten impervious over 2m 3f getting a pound from her? I’d have my doubts. And at almost three times the price of those horses, I’d be happy enough to take my chance that he’ll find improvement up in trip.

[robith]

I totally understand people not fancying him to win the turners, I don’t either.

But people were specifically saying that he won’t have a chance in the banc after yesterday’s performance, which I wouldn’t agree with.

would gaillard du mesnil, thyme hill and the real whacker have all beaten impervious over 2m 3f getting a pound from her? I’d have my doubts. And at almost three times the price of those horses, I’d be happy enough to take my chance that he’ll find improvement up in trip.

As much as I think there's improvement to come from him at distance, and the BANC is wide open, he's a now a horse that is 42% win over obstacles, and 28% falling. It's natural for people to start to discount him from G1 conversations

[darlojim]

Backers of Appreciate It for the Arkle must be very close to pressing the button on that 5/1 Irish Arkle price? No Jonbon in there and I don't think it's Willie's way of sending one to the Arkle without first running in the Irish version at the DRF beforehand.

[riccirich]

As much as I think there's improvement to come from him at distance, and the BANC is wide open, he's a now a horse that is 42% win over obstacles, and 28% falling. It's natural for people to start to discount him from G1 conversations

Thyme hill and real whacker are on 50% win rate, and 42% is better than gdm, but not sure how relevant that is anyway since my reasoning is that he’s been running over too short a trip, and in pretty strong races at too short a trip too. If he’d hacked around in nothing chases like Dysart dynamo or el fab he’d be at 50%. And his jumping has been very good on his last two runs.

Not saying he should be fave, but discounting him in a race that looks pretty weak, when most of us expect him to improve up in trip, is a tad early imo, especially when he’s 20/1. Of all his likely opposition in the banc I’d struggle to name one that I’d be sure would have beaten impervious under yesterday’s conditions.

[Winging The Last]

And also the fact that the owners have Gerri and GMG that they fancy more for the BANC and think are better horse's.

He may improve for 3m which I have always felt he will but I don't see him improving enough to with a Grade 1 at Cheltenham

[riccirich]

And also the fact that the owners have Gerri and GMG that they fancy more for the BANC and think are better horse's.

He may improve for 3m which I have always felt he will but I don't see him improving enough to with a Grade 1 at Cheltenham

I could be wrong but don’t think I’ve actually seen a quote where robcour have said those two horses are better than jwm and they fancy them more, thought it was just something like “gentlemannsgame looks like a banc horse”, but I could be wrong. And apparently Gerri could be nh chase bound but that hasn’t been confirmed.

personally I think people are letting their disappointment that jwm doesn’t look as special as people thought he might be cloud their judgement, when the question should just be “can he win the banc”.

gentlemansgame is another that I think impervious would have saw off comfortably over 2m 3f as I just think he’s not very quick at all, so fancying him but ruling out jwm isn’t something I’d agree with, but that’s just imo.