2023 Novice Chasers

[darlojim]

55's
think someone got there first , been eating freddo frogs and rolos watching nothing to declare (fussy them australian customs people aren't they ?)

yeah i took a few bits above that haha! Sad to see there wasn't anything stupidly high mind.

Rolos.. Very underrated chocolate, sit just below the munchie in the chocolate leaderboard!

[Quevega]

He's also a bigger price than saint roi for the Irish arkle

Almost like paddy know something we don't

They've also cut him to 5s for the turners and are joint best price for him in the arkle

For my own bets i hope they are right

Yeah, it's a complex one.
They've had there betting slanted towards the turners for a while now.
But even if they're close to the camp and have someone who knows that he's the most likely of the 2 milers to step up.

Why go 14-1 tissue today for the longer Dublin race ?

Don't get me wrong they may have had peanuts for it and decided to duck it, or nothing at all, and ducked the prices quickly after getting some sort of info from the stable.

I think specific information is unlikely as the race plans will not be set in stone, it's probably just a more of an educated guess than ours as they know the stable's likely steps.

It does show that one way or another that PP now think the longer trip at Dublin is under serious consideration or that some punter or punters think so and have backed accordingly.

[Many Clouds]

The 10s has gone tonight on Appreciate It for the turners, into 7/1 with 365. Clipped into 5s with BFSB too.

[charlie]

In relation to Ramillies:

Would people be worried that Ramilies hadn't even been given an entry in the Flogas as Willie just enters any horse that’s fit! Or on the other hand is it pretty much him being primed for the NHC if he gets a racing in over 3m.

To me one thing I can say is it is highly unlikely that he will race in the BANC with the lack of entry in the Flogas.

Which could have big implications on GDM as I can’t see them both in the NHC

I've always taken the view that Ramillies would want every inch of 3m6f and is just not quick enough in top races over 2m5f or 3m, thats probably why they have left him out. He's already ticked off a run over 2m7f or further, so just needs one more run to qualify for the NHC. It will be very interesting to see what they do with GDM. Willie has 12 entered in the Flogas and if GDM makes his shortlist and runs well then that could see him go BANC. If he swerves the race then I think its NHC almost certainly.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I've always taken the view that Ramillies would want every inch of 3m6f and is just not quick enough in top races over 2m5f or 3m, thats probably why they have left him out. He's already ticked off a run over 2m7f or further, so just needs one more run to qualify for the NHC. It will be very interesting to see what they do with GDM. Willie has 12 entered in the Flogas and if GDM makes his shortlist and runs well then that could see him go BANC. If he swerves the race then I think its NHC almost certainly.

I’ve taken the plunge and cashed out my GDM NHC bet for a handsome profit. I’ve been mulling (or should that be mullining) this over for a while now but I just think with MC’s injury and the possibility of Ramillies going for the NHC it seems more and more likely GDM will go BANC. With the quotes that GDM is a graded horse and now he’s proven that by winning a Grade One, I think this will sway them towards the BANC. I can’t see another obvious horse WPM has for the BANC other than Classic Getwaway and the lack of entries there suggests something is up. I could be wrong but I’ve taken some of the profit and gone in on Chemical Energy whom we know goes for the NHC and whom is most likely to have Jamie Codd on his back.

[Istabraq]

I’ve taken the plunge and cashed out my GDM NHC bet for a handsome profit. I’ve been mulling (or should that be mullining) this over for a while now but I just think with MC’s injury and the possibility of Ramillies going for the NHC it seems more and more likely GDM will go BANC..

Not sure if I shared it publically or not but on Hennessy Day I met someone who is very close to the Donnelly's, I was told the BANC wasn't on the radar for GDM and hadn't been discussed.
Of course plans can change but it's unlikely injuries/absences of others will affect what they do with GDM, and if anyone is looking for comfort on target GDM has been steadily backed for the NH Chase all season, a quick look at Oddschecker on history shows that 11/4 was available at end Dec and he now sits best price 13/8 so has shortened significantly.
Mullins notoriously keeps all options open for his horses and doesn't commit until the latest possible time so things may yet change, but right now everything points to the NH Chase for him...

[AnFiieLD.]

Given the AI shortening for the Flogas - The 9/2 Hills NRNB for the Turners looks very appealing to my eyes. I can't see a world where he runs in the Turners and is a bigger price than this

[isitmarchyet]

Encouraging to hear Ruby on RTC mention a 2m chase at Gowran on the 26th, or the following weekend over 2 1/2 at Fairyhouse as a possible starting point for Sir Gerhard. Said he think that's where he'll be entered and the plan is to go in that direction. Maybe I can get those slips out of the bin yet...

At the 30 minute mark if anyone hasn't already seen for themselves:

[charlie]

The BANC chase market is mental. Thyme Hill and The Real Whacker are 1st and 2nd favourite, both easy to look past IMO. GDM has been touted as Willie's NHC horse for 12 months so will probably end up there. I'm desperate for Gerri to be that top Grade 1 animal but something in the way he races leaves me doubting if he's really top drawer. JDB was keen on debut and has entries over 2m and 2m5f this Xmas, so he'd look more likely to be Turners bound. Classic Getaway and the Skelton horse are both MIA, so no idea when we will see them next. ADV will be going to the mares chase. Ram isn't quick enough and its NHC or bust IMO. Mighty Potter will go to the Turners and the rest aren't worth talking about IMO. The only horse that stands out at the moment in the top 10 as looking likely to run in the race is Gentlemansgame, so I've added him 15/1 NRNB. MM said off the back of a very promising chase debut that 3m is his trip and he looks a lovely staying chaser type. I don't think it's unreasonable to think over half of the horses I've mentioned won't end up in the race and actually, there's every chance 7 or even 8 of them go elsewhere, which is mental, so I've added him.

[Quevega]

The BANC chase market is mental. Thyme Hill and The Real Whacker are 1st and 2nd favourite, both easy to look past IMO. GDM has been touted as Willie's NHC horse for 12 months so will probably end up there. I'm desperate for Gerri to be that top Grade 1 animal but something in the way he races leaves me doubting if he's really top drawer. JDB was keen on debut and has entries over 2m and 2m5f this Xmas, so he'd look more likely to be Turners bound. Classic Getaway and the Skelton horse are both MIA, so no idea when we will see them next. ADV will be going to the mares chase. Ram isn't quick enough and its NHC or bust IMO. Mighty Potter will go to the Turners and the rest aren't worth talking about IMO. The only horse that stands out at the moment in the top 10 as looking likely to run in the race is Gentlemansgame, so I've added him 15/1 NRNB. MM said off the back of a very promising chase debut that 3m is his trip and he looks a lovely staying chaser type. I don't think it's unreasonable to think over half of the horses I've mentioned won't end up in the race and actually, there's every chance 7 or even 8 of them go elsewhere, which is mental, so I've added him.

Good summary but maybe re examine the first sentence

[charlie]

Good summary but maybe re examine the first sentence

Bat shit mental?

[SeanRock]

I'm desperate for Gerri to be that top Grade 1 animal but something in the way he races leaves me doubting

I think Gerri will surprise you when he runs at 3m Charlie. He’s not an exuberant horse & he only ever does enough in his races (which is not a negative for staying chasers) but when he steps up he’ll be very hard to get past. He has a lovely build & jumps for fun.

[charlie]

I think Gerri will surprise you when he runs at 3m Charlie. He’s not an exuberant horse & he only ever does enough in his races (which is not a negative for staying chasers) but when he steps up he’ll be very hard to get past. He has a lovely build & jumps for fun.

Heres hoping you are right pal!! I'd love to be wrong.

[Rooster Booster]

I’d like to see the mare put in a proper performance tomorrow and put her hat in the ring....not on anybody’s radar I appreciate and not even in the market but I’m hoping she’d get a mention or two after tomorrow’s race.

[ComplyOrDie]

I’d like to see the mare put in a proper performance tomorrow and put her hat in the ring....not on anybody’s radar I appreciate and not even in the market but I’m hoping she’d get a mention or two after tomorrow’s race.

33/1 NRNB is a ridiculous price for her for the Mares Chase, isn't it?