2023 Novice Chasers

[Carnage at Taunton]

I’m not a trends or stats person, and when looking at races to find the solution I rarely take notice of age, so would not dismiss a horse because of age.
In the case of this Arkle, we have all the main contenders having pretty much all their own way and all winning comfortably, so for me difficult to say with any confidence whose better.
I know a lot look at hurdle form, not me so much , certainly as anything defining anyway, although I will always be aware of their respective hurdle campaigns.
Eg, take AI as an impressive Supreme winner against Jonbon and DD as horses that would have followed CH home last year. I don’t know where AI would have finished had he been in that Supreme, I be suspect somewhere behind CH, but where?
I also don’t know where DD would have finished in relation to Jonbon.
So for me it’s all about the impression the horses give me in their respective chases thus far, and who I think will be the best come March.

[Rooster Booster]

That's a load of proverbial. you're basing that on the assumption the 9yo+ qmcc winners are winning in their first attempt, when the facts are this isn't true. Politologue, big zeb, moscow flyer. all winners at the age of 9+ in at least their second qmcc

Ok I get you disagree ...no that wasn’t my assumption at all....I made no assumptions of any kind...I was simply talking about the importance (on average over time) of having that improvement phase at the right time

...big zeb started making his improvement as a seven year old and by the time he was 8 he was posting 170 rprs this period was important for him to enable his 9 year old performance in the QM which was only a few pounds higher than two of his performances as an 8yo.

Polotologue found his improvement between 6 and 7 and just maintained that level ....he only needed to run to the level he had done as a 7yo to win the QM that year.

Moscow Flyer improved massively as a horse between 6 and 7 and posted a 170 rpr as a 7yo. His highest ever rpr was 182 as an 11 year old and so if I was looking for a horse to toot the AI horn it would be him. Is AI another Moscow Flyer ...idk ...but I’d say on average over time most horses get their surge of improvement way earlier than he did or AI will have to if he is to win an average QM.

can AI win an Arkle ...of course he can, is it wrong for some to believe his age means he may be slowing down a little and his potential for improvement not as high as other younger horses, I guess we will find out but it’s a reasonable argument for folks to make imo.

[Jrow]

And appreciate it beat him out of sight. he is now a top 2 mile chaser by all accounts. yet you have his conquerer in that supreme behind a faller in another supreme, and another who was beaten by the arkle favourite?

It's a stretch to compare Blue Lord in the Supreme to the Blue Lord of this season on a collateral basis. Even last season he was far from a finished article.

[AaronLad]

Ok I get you disagree ...no that wasn’t my assumption at all....I made no assumptions of any kind...I was simply talking about the importance (on average over time) of having that improvement phase at the right time

...big zeb started making his improvement as a seven year old and by the time he was 8 he was posting 170 rprs this period was important for him to enable his 9 year old performance in the QM which was only a few pounds higher than two of his performances as an 8yo.

Polotologue found his improvement between 6 and 7 and just maintained that level ....he only needed to run to the level he had done as a 7yo to win the QM that year.

Moscow Flyer improved massively as a horse between 6 and 7 and posted a 170 rpr as a 7yo. His highest ever rpr was 182 as an 11 year old and so if I was looking for a horse to toot the AI horn it would be him. Is AI another Moscow Flyer ...idk ...but I’d say on average over time most horses get their surge of improvement way earlier than he did or AI will have to if he is to win an average QM.

can AI win an Arkle ...of course he can, is it wrong for some to believe his age means he may be slowing down a little and his potential for improvement not as high as other younger horses, I guess we will find out but it’s a reasonable argument for folks to make imo.

Where and when did Appreciate it miss this improvement?
He didn't go novice chasing, because of a setback, to save him for this season, willie had ferny hollow or he thought he did last season, when he ruled out appreciate it for a chase campaign. He ran in a champion hurdle on return....He is at an age and stage of his career where he should've been one of the favs for the cc, because of circumstances he has an opportunity in novice company, which he is himself of course.
we can go round in circles but you have no proof appreciate it hasn't had exactly the same improvement chances as the other two, who may i add also had niggles last season? a heart problem and a knock i believe.

[AaronLad]

It's a stretch to compare Blue Lord in the Supreme to the Blue Lord of this season on a collateral basis. Even last season he was far from a finished article.

But surely it's unfair to discount the fact appreciate it was way ahead of him, so why wouldn't he be now?

[Many Clouds]

A dead heat in the Irish Arkle would really throw a spanner in the works

Please god no! It would be tortuous on here for a month if that happened

[Rooster Booster]

Where and when did Appreciate it miss this improvement?
He didn't go novice chasing, because of a setback, to save him for this season, willie had ferny hollow or he thought he did last season, when he ruled out appreciate it for a chase campaign. He ran in a champion hurdle on return....He is at an age and stage of his career where he should've been one of the favs for the cc, because of circumstances he has an opportunity in novice company, which he is himself of course.
we can go round in circles but you have no proof appreciate it hasn't had exactly the same improvement chances as the other two, who may i add also had niggles last season? a heart problem and a knock i believe.

Ok nobody is saying it isn’t possible. I am not assuming it won’t happen and I don’t think anybody else is either ....people are just questioning it that’s all for the reasons they have given. I am not accusing you of assuming the improvement will happen ...I assume you feel it will and you may well be right, others aren’t so sure and they may also be right. If you are making no assumptions with your argument then the same is fair for others on the other side of this debate.

[AaronLad]

Ok nobody is saying it isn’t possible. I am not assuming it won’t happen and I don’t think anybody else is either ....people are just questioning it that’s all for the reasons they have given. I am not accusing you of assuming the improvement will happen ...I assume you feel it will and you may well be right, others aren’t so sure and they may also be right. If you are making no assumptions with your argument then the same is fair for others on the other side of this debate.

I don't think he needs improvement. To beat jonbon he will have to be still as good as when he was 7, and maybe he needs to be a better chaser than he was hurdler but he don't need to improve to be mullins number 1, the others need to improve. Whether he has the same ability over fences as he did hurdles is a matter of opinion. I think he will and have backed him now i know he is around this season.

[Exar Essay]

Changing tack slightly, Mullins has nailed on the shorter trip for DD in his stable tours. But that was before a very professional and settled debut over fences. Nothing "keen" about that. We know he gets further given his bumper form over 2m2f. We also know Mullins was seriously considering stepping him up last year despite how keen he was. Also bear in mind that the Turners is nearly 2f shorter than the Ballymore and can be won be a free going front runner putting the pressure on and running "efficiently". Is there a possibility we're being too quick to discount a step up in trip for DD?

[Quevega]

Please god no! It would be tortuous on here for a month if that happened

I've just skim read through about 4 pages of this.

Are we settled now everyone ?

I think for next year it might be worth having a thread for high profile horses with potential multiple targets and let the ones that like to theorise and discuss it in there.
So I don't have to read this madness. Only joking , do what you like and I'm sure some theories will have merit.

My thoughts (I usually like to have a say)

He'll either run at Cheltenham or not, in one of the races or another.

Performances and form of all the horses in play (his own and the opposition) and respective fitness at the time will have the most impact on Willie and the teams decision.

I'm pretty sure we'll not solve the puzzle now, and even if someone's envisaged outcome is proven correct, it's more than likely going to be down to chance in this instance.

[Craigy14]

And appreciate it beat him out of sight. he is now a top 2 mile chaser by all accounts. yet you have his conquerer in that supreme behind a faller in another supreme, and another who was beaten by the arkle favourite?

I think Ista may have been pointing to the form of Blue Lord since the Supreme. He hardly lit the world on fire as a novice chaser. Edwardstone was head and shoulders above the novice chasers in that Arkle, happy to admit that now. Blue Lord was beaten by Gabynako who isn’t even a 2miler!

To me he has improved a huge amount since last season. Nothing last year would make Appreciate It’s supreme a form boost imo.

[HesTheOne]

Changing tack slightly, Mullins has nailed on the shorter trip for DD in his stable tours. But that was before a very professional and settled debut over fences. Nothing "keen" about that. We know he gets further given his bumper form over 2m2f. We also know Mullins was seriously considering stepping him up last year despite how keen he was. Also bear in mind that the Turners is nearly 2f shorter than the Ballymore and can be won be a free going front runner putting the pressure on and running "efficiently". Is there a possibility we're being too quick to discount a step up in trip for DD?

Your opening a can of worms Exar...

[Exar Essay]

Your opening a can of worms Exar...

Ha. I know it's said in jest, but you're not looking at the whole pie Jenny if you're only considering the merits of one of the three stepping up.

[HesTheOne]

Appreciate It
El Fab
Flame B
Sir Gerhard
JDB
Saint Roi
Ha 'Dor

all entered for Irish Arkle

[ComplyOrDie]

Appreciate It
El Fab
Flame B
Sir Gerhard
JDB
Saint Roi
Ha 'Dor

all entered for Irish Arkle

Once again though, Dysart Dynamo not entered in the longer race at the DRF, yet Appreciate It & El Fabiolo are. That tells me Willie has no plans to move DD up in trip.