2023 Novice Chasers

[HesTheOne]

I don't think majority here are saying Appreciate couldn't win an Arkle, myself along with others are merely saying at the minute you've got 3 good things on paper, 1 of which surely wont step up leaving with you to make a decision between the other two. At the minute majority seam to lean on Appreciate being most suited to stepping up in trip for a variety of factors I'm not listing again.

Granted if El Fab's jumping doesn't show signs of improvement well that's the easy decision made there and then.

A dead heat in the Irish Arkle would really throw a spanner in the works

[AaronLad]

I don't think majority here are saying Appreciate couldn't win an Arkle, myself along with others are merely saying at the minute you've got 3 good things on paper, 1 of which surely wont step up leaving with you to make a decision between the other two. At the minute majority seam to lean on Appreciate being most suited to stepping up in trip for a variety of factors I'm not listing again.

Granted if El Fab's jumping doesn't show signs of improvement well that's the easy decision made there and then.

A dead heat in the Irish Arkle would really throw a spanner in the works

But of them "3 good things" Appreciate it is clear on hurdles ratings over 2miles so why step him up when the other 2 have been beaten by jonbon, whether dysart dynamo fell or not, he was still beaten by jonbon. we'll go round in circles until it's clear but with the facts we have he'd be least likeliest.

[robith]

I don't think majority here are saying Appreciate couldn't win an Arkle, myself along with others are merely saying at the minute you've got 3 good things on paper, 1 of which surely wont step up leaving with you to make a decision between the other two. At the minute majority seam to lean on Appreciate being most suited to stepping up in trip for a variety of factors I'm not listing again.

Granted if El Fab's jumping doesn't show signs of improvement well that's the easy decision made there and then.

A dead heat in the Irish Arkle would really throw a spanner in the works

tbh my main issue is the reasoning used rather than the output of the arguments, I'm such a lil university debate society gimp

[Istabraq]

Appreciate It won a pretty bang average Supreme, Blue Lord would probably have been 8 or so lengths behind had he stood up but the rest have turned out to be a poor bunch.
I don't want to drag up the whole RPR debate again but he was given 163 for that Supreme win, 7lb higher than his previous high, and his two chase marks have been fairly average, I wonder whether the RP would go back and amend that Supreme mark if they could.
Controversial view no doubt but I'd have Dysart Dynamo and El Fabiolo ahead of Appreciate It...

[AaronLad]

Appreciate It won a pretty bang average Supreme, Blue Lord would probably have been 8 or so lengths behind had he stood up but the rest have turned out to be a poor bunch.
I don't want to drag up the whole RPR debate again but he was given 163 for that Supreme win, 7lb higher than his previous high, and his two chase marks have been fairly average, I wonder whether the RP would go back and amend that Supreme mark if they could.
Controversial view no doubt but I'd have Dysart Dynamo and El Fabiolo ahead of Appreciate It...

Blue lord who is 3rd fav for qmcc? 2nd fav for the ryanair?? ONLY 8 lengths or so?

[Dandrew99]

charlie Is 9/2 NRNB a no brainer?

If AI wins the Irish Arkle then he likely goes to the Arkle, if he loses he would probably be a bigger price than 9/2 for the Turners no?

[Istabraq]

Blue lord who is 3rd fav for qmcc? 2nd fav for the ryanair?? ONLY 8 lengths or so?

What is your question, the distance he would have been beaten by or his ability ?
What I didn't emphasise in my message was that I consider it a poor Supreme with the exception of Blue Lord, that wasn't clear...

[ComplyOrDie]

But of them "3 good things" Appreciate it is clear on hurdles ratings over 2miles so why step him up when the other 2 have been beaten by jonbon, whether dysart dynamo fell or not, he was still beaten by jonbon. we'll go round in circles until it's clear but with the facts we have he'd be least likeliest.

Absolute assumption about Dysart Dynamo I'm afraid. You've no proof, nor is it a fact. When a horse falls whilst still going as well as another I don't see how anyone can say he was beaten by another. I've just re-watched the race and all 3 were still on the bridle going to the hurdle he fell at. Dysart found plenty for pressure in his bumper wins, and may have done so again in the Supreme.

Agree about Appreciate It being the highest rated hurdler, but Dysart went into the Supreme rated 152, now, I'm not saying Dysart would have got near to 160, but he could well have finished 2nd (only my opinion), and thus got a mid to high 150's rating, again short of Appreciate It, but Dysart done a whole lot more wrong than Appreciate It did as a hurdler, and this was always going to cost him. He is now a much more settled horse over fences (based on his one run over them so far), so could indeed surpass Appreciate It on all fronts, IMO.

I have Appreciate It covered, and he would still be a good winner for me, so I'm not basing this solely on my pocket. This is just how I see it.

[charlie]

charlie Is 9/2 NRNB a no brainer?

If AI wins the Irish Arkle then he likely goes to the Arkle, if he loses he would probably be a bigger price than 9/2 for the Turners no?

I think so. I don't think he'd lose barring fall or fine margins and in either instance, he's too good to go off bigger than 9/2.

It's an interesting dynamic though because those who think Turners re AI must know that DD blasting from the front will suit AI down to the ground.

Given Jonbon will probably want to get on with it, and based on the Supreme, I suspect they'll use DD as a fact finding mission at the DRF.

If he's good enough and beats AI then they have options, of which, stepping AI makes sense.

I think DD will fold in better company but thats just me - nothing would surprise me tough, fantastic jumper is DD.

[Lbur4288]

Appreciate It won a pretty bang average Supreme, Blue Lord would probably have been 8 or so lengths behind had he stood up but the rest have turned out to be a poor bunch.
I don't want to drag up the whole RPR debate again but he was given 163 for that Supreme win, 7lb higher than his previous high, and his two chase marks have been fairly average, I wonder whether the RP would go back and amend that Supreme mark if they could.
Controversial view no doubt but I'd have Dysart Dynamo and El Fabiolo ahead of Appreciate It...

Nothing controversial to me, I've thought the same both in terms of the Supreme he won and what the pecking order is for Mullins.

[AaronLad]

What is your question, the distance he would have been beaten by or his ability ?
What I didn't emphasise in my message was that I consider it a poor Supreme with the exception of Blue Lord, that wasn't clear...

And appreciate it beat him out of sight. he is now a top 2 mile chaser by all accounts. yet you have his conquerer in that supreme behind a faller in another supreme, and another who was beaten by the arkle favourite?

[HesTheOne]

Watch willie chuck him in the brown advisory and prove us all wrong

joking.. of course.. before I’m hit with a plethora of stats and percentages

[AaronLad]

Absolute assumption about Dysart Dynamo I'm afraid. You've no proof, nor is it a fact. When a horse falls whilst still going as well as another I don't see how anyone can say he was beaten by another. I've just re-watched the race and all 3 were still on the bridle going to the hurdle he fell at. Dysart found plenty for pressure in his bumper wins, and may have done so again in the Supreme.

Agree about Appreciate It being the highest rated hurdler, but Dysart went into the Supreme rated 152, now, I'm not saying Dysart would have got near to 160, but he could well have finished 2nd (only my opinion), and thus got a mid to high 150's rating, again short of Appreciate It, but Dysart done a whole lot more wrong than Appreciate It did as a hurdler, and this was always going to cost him. He is now a much more settled horse over fences (based on his one run over them so far), so could indeed surpass Appreciate It on all fronts, IMO.

I have Appreciate It covered, and he would still be a good winner for me, so I'm not basing this solely on my pocket. This is just how I see it.

ok he might have finished 2nd, so that makes him a better horse than appreciate it? and he fell over a hurdle at cheltenham, how will he do with the fence on the turn, 2nd last? we shall see
i'd be very surprised if appreciate it isn't in the arkle at cheltenham. but if people could use facts not if's and but's it would be APPRECIATEd

[ComplyOrDie]

ok he might have finished 2nd, so that makes him a better horse than appreciate it? and he fell over a hurdle at cheltenham, how will he do with the fence on the turn, 2nd last? we shall see
i'd be very surprised if appreciate it isn't in the arkle at cheltenham. but if people could use facts not if's and but's it would be APPRECIATEd

Over hurdles, absolutely not. DD was far too keen and had moments of sketchy jumping.

I think Willie may run two in the Arkle tbh, and I think it will be Appreciate It & Dysart Dynamo, but those hoping for Dysart Dynamo to set it up for Appreciate It may be out of luck, because, to my eye, he looked a whole lot more settled than he was last season. I still expect him to go from the front, of course, but I think he'll not be so hard on himself this season.

Whatever happens it's made for some seriously good debate on here, and I hope they all make it to the DRF first.

[Dandrew99]

I think so. I don't think he'd lose barring fall or fine margins and in either instance, he's too good to go off bigger than 9/2.

It's an interesting dynamic though because those who think Turners re AI must know that DD blasting from the front will suit AI down to the ground.

Given Jonbon will probably want to get on with it, and based on the Supreme, I suspect they'll use DD as a fact finding mission at the DRF.

If he's good enough and beats AI then they have options, of which, stepping AI makes sense.

I think DD will fold in better company but thats just me - nothing would surprise me tough, fantastic jumper is DD.

Oh I agree he won't go off bigger than 9/2 if he went there, I just mean if he lost at DRF, do you not think he would be at least the same price or bigger post Irish Arkle? Could be one to bet now and top up after actually... My plan has been to wait until we see who wins at the DRF.

Agreed that DD is just a total wildcard at this stage, he'd either be too good and win, or set it up nicely for an Appreciate It. I'm probably least interested in El Fabiolo of the three.

Think we have found this year's Sir Gerhard/Dysart Dynamo debate anyway