2023 Novice Chasers

[robith]

As previously pointed out Appreciate It is likely Turners bound. I understand that Charlie does not want to hear it, but that is what logic would suggest. WM wants to WIN as many races as possible at Cheltenham. He will not send all his big guns at the Arkle, he has a proper favourite to beat. He knew this last year and had a decision to make on how he split them. As it was, he put DD up against CH & Jonbon and stepped up SirG to Bally. He knew that gave him the best chance.

As I suspect he new CH is a freak and therefore no point in burning 2 good horses chasing the win. SirG did him proud and won the Bally with something to spare.

Ask yourself if WM is splitting DD and AI who do you think would be best suited to 2 1/2 miles? I will give you a clue its not DD.

Of course there could be injuries or a poor performance that changes his mind, but I feel the 10's available on AI for the Turners is going to look very big in March.

For a post about logic, there's a few logic leaps here.

For one - you over look one fairly obvious conclusion that could be reached on the data we have available. If Willie just wants to win races, what if he believes that Appreciate It is his best 2 miler? And what if Willie believes he can win the Turners with James du Berlais?

Yes, Appreciate It has also been spoken about as being versatile in distance, but tbh that's Willie's MO full stop. 90% of his runs for Willie have been over 2m, 100% of those over obstacles.

Could AI go to the Turners? Absolutely. Is he definitely going to go to the Turners because Willie wants to win races and Dysart Dynamo can't step up? No, captain

[gwaaan]

Not a fan of AI being a 9yo in the Arkle. Think he’s a better chance in the turners

[ComplyOrDie]

I'll add to that Charlie, that in the last 7 years, 2 x 9 year olds and 2 x 10 year olds have won the Champion Chase. On that basis you'd think a 9 year old might have the capability of winning an Arkle!

What's the correlation between the two races though, bar the distance.

You've got a grade 1 novice chase, and an open grade 1. Of course the open grade 1 is going to have a higher age bracket, because the route to take in the open grade 1 is first through the novice route as a younger horse. Surely that's just logical?

I think seven 9 year olds have run in the Arkle in the past 10 runnings of the race and only one finished 3rd.

Even if you drop it a year and choose 8 year olds and older you're looking at one winner from 17 runners from the past 10 runnings of the race.

Willie Mullins last 3 runners older than 7 were Cash Back (8), Royal Caviar (9) & Arvika Legionniere (8), they went off 6/1, 6/1 & 15/2, so were not completely unfancied.

The reason most winners come from the 6-7 year age bracket, for me, is that they have more improvement in them still to come for going over fences. I don't see that with Appreciate It (although I have him covered), and the only way the improvement comes is by going out in trip. Jonbon looks much improved for a fence, even Dysart Dynamo looked a whole lot more settled on his chase debut than what he was over hurdles. As time goes on we all get a little slower too, it's no different with race horses, and sometimes that little extra time to get going can help.

[Cooldaddy]

What do you think happens when Appreciate It wins the Irish Arkle? Still going Turners or to the Arkle?

"When" now that's interesting. Do you think WM will run his big 3? Hope he does by the way.

The other point being that Sir G won the 2m at DRF yet turned up in the Bally. Why was he switched? WM had a better option? To avoid CH? Sir G was not fluent at his hurdles? Though he had more chance of the win/?

Who knows its WM, but its fun debating it.

[Lobos]

Great post COD. It's not that Appreciate It doesn't have a chance of winning the Arkle it's just that the other Willie runners look better placed. It'll all be sorted in a little under 3 weeks.

[Rooster Booster]

Great post COD. It's not that Appreciate It doesn't have a chance of winning the Arkle it's just that the other Willie runners look better placed. It'll all be sorted in a little under 3 weeks.

Yes it was a very good post

[Can't Catch Me]

I think it would very much depend on 'how' Appreciate It wins the Irish Arkle. If Dysart Dynamo sets the fractions and AI is all out to pick him up at the end of the race, then it wouldn't take a big leap of faith to think Willie could split them and send AI to the Turners.

Everything will depend on the Irish Arkle and right now, anything could happen! I think he will run all three big guns and as an AI Turners backer I have accepted I need DD and EF to both run exceptionally well to get AI moving up in trip.

[robith]

"When" now that's interesting. Do you think WM will run his big 3? Hope he does by the way.

The other point being that Sir G won the 2m at DRF yet turned up in the Bally. Why was he switched? WM had a better option? To avoid CH? Sir G was not fluent at his hurdles? Though he had more chance of the win/?

Who knows its WM, but its fun debating it.

Have you ever read any David Hume cooldaddy? Just as this is a classic case of inductive reasoning

"Inductive reasoning is a method of reasoning in which a general principle is derived from a body of observations. It consists of making broad generalizations based on specific observations. Inductive reasoning is distinct from deductive reasoning. If the premises are correct, the conclusion of a deductive argument is certain; in contrast, the truth of the conclusion of an inductive argument is probable, based upon the evidence given."

To paraphrase one of this country's greatest ever philosophers - just because something has happened before, doesn't mean it's going to happen again

[Carnage at Taunton]

What's the correlation between the two races though, bar the distance.

You've got a grade 1 novice chase, and an open grade 1. Of course the open grade 1 is going to have a higher age bracket, because the route to take in the open grade 1 is first through the novice route as a younger horse. Surely that's just logical?

I think seven 9 year olds have run in the Arkle in the past 10 runnings of the race and only one finished 3rd.

Even if you drop it a year and choose 8 year olds and older you're looking at one winner from 17 runners from the past 10 runnings of the race.

Willie Mullins last 3 runners older than 7 were Cash Back (8), Royal Caviar (9) & Arvika Legionniere (8), they went off 6/1, 6/1 & 15/2, so were not completely unfancied.

The reason most winners come from the 6-7 year age bracket, for me, is that they have more improvement in them still to come for going over fences. I don't see that with Appreciate It (although I have him covered), and the only way the improvement comes is by going out in trip. Jonbon looks much improved for a fence, even Dysart Dynamo looked a whole lot more settled on his chase debut than what he was over hurdles. As time goes on we all get a little slower too, it's no different with race horses, and sometimes that little extra time to get going can help.

Thank you comply,you have just saved me some time composing a post, you have done a much better job than I would have…..absolutely echo all that

[charlie]

Well said that man!

I'm going to put this age debate to bed once and for all because I'm tired repeatedly hearing that a 9 year old is less likely to win an Arkle.

28 horses (yes, 28, not 2 or 3) have won the QMCC aged 9 or older.

28 is not a small insignificant sample size, its 44% of all QMCC winners since 1959 being 9 years old or older, and that includes eleven 10 year olds, two 11 year olds and a 12 year old.

What about the Arkle? The first thing to look at is how many 9 year olds or older have actually tried to win an Arkle?

In the last 10 years, 87 horses have ran in the Arkle, 8 of which were 9 or older, which is only 9%.

6 of those had a starting SP of 25/1 and would fall in the 'no hope' category.

The notable flops are Rock On Ruby (5/1) who lost the race at the 3rd after having blundered very badly, and Overturn (7/2) who made a race ending mistake 3 out.

So in summary, a negligible number of 9+ year olds have tried to win an Arkle to say that they cant, and far far too many horses win the QMCC aged 9 or older to suggest that it makes it even slightly less likely.

Forgive me for stating the obvious, but a 9 year old running in an Arkle doesn't know its a novice and when all is said and done, this comes down to which horse can run and jump fastest around Cheltenham over 2m.

Every time Appreciate It being 9 comes up as a negative I am quoting this post. You are welcome to do the same

gwaaan worth a read

[Benjy23]

I assume the basic theory is that the Champion Chase is a stronger race than the Arkle (and over the same C&D), so if 9 year olds can win the former why wouldn't they be able to win the latter...

[Carnage at Taunton]

I assume the basic theory is that the Champion Chase is a stronger race than the Arkle (and over the same C&D), so if 9 year olds can win the former why wouldn't they be able to win the latter...

A 9 year old in the CC would normally have at least 2 seasons chasing behind him, quiet often more .
A 9 year old in the Arkle would normally have 2 or 3 chases behind him, up against horses with similar experience who would be younger than him and open to more improvement.
So in the case of AI, is his level better than the younger ones will be come March??

[Rooster Booster]

I assume the basic theory is that the Champion Chase is a stronger race than the Arkle (and over the same C&D), so if 9 year olds can win the former why wouldn't they be able to win the latter...

No I think where COD is coming from is that most 9yo chasers have benefitted from the improvement phase that typically happens between ages 6and 7/8 and so their ability as a 9yo is as a result of that improvement phase.

If a horse misses out on that phase then Father Time makes it harder (but hopefully for AI fans not impossible) to acquire that improvement between ages 8 and 9. For a horse to still be a novice at 9 it suggests they haven’t had the benefit of the improvement stage at the optimal time.

[AaronLad]

No I think where COD is coming from is that most 9yo chasers have benefitted from the improvement phase that typically happens between ages 6and 7/8 and so their ability as a 9yo is as a result of that improvement phase.

If a horse misses out on that phase then Father Time makes it harder (but hopefully for AI fans not impossible) to acquire that improvement between ages 8 and 9. For a horse to still be a novice at 9 it suggests they haven’t had the benefit of the improvement stage at the optimal time.

That's a load of proverbial. you're basing that on the assumption the 9yo+ qmcc winners are winning in their first attempt, when the facts are this isn't true. Politologue, big zeb, moscow flyer. all winners at the age of 9+ in at least their second qmcc

[charlie]

As previously pointed out Appreciate It is likely Turners bound. I understand that Charlie does not want to hear it, but that is what logic would suggest. WM wants to WIN as many races as possible at Cheltenham. He will not send all his big guns at the Arkle, he has a proper favourite to beat. He knew this last year and had a decision to make on how he split them. As it was, he put DD up against CH & Jonbon and stepped up SirG to Bally. He knew that gave him the best chance.

As I suspect he new CH is a freak and therefore no point in burning 2 good horses chasing the win. SirG did him proud and won the Bally with something to spare.

Ask yourself if WM is splitting DD and AI who do you think would be best suited to 2 1/2 miles? I will give you a clue its not DD.

Of course there could be injuries or a poor performance that changes his mind, but I feel the 10's available on AI for the Turners is going to look very big in March.

Well this has sparked plenty of forum debate.

Let's start with the bits I agree with. Saying Willie splits his best chances is Mullins 101, so we all get that, but you're right, 10's for the Turners is a fair price and 9/2 is still a no brainer NRNB price (was 6 last week). You're right that DD looks all over a 2 miler, whereas Appreciate It could thrive over both trips, so you've said some things that most people would agree with.

IMO you haven't used logic, you've used inference and deductive reasoning. That doesn't mean you'll end up being wrong, you could end up being very right, but based on the facts of what we know now, AI is most likely to go to the Arkle based on connections persisting down the 2m route. As others have pointed out, the market heavily indicates this too.

I've made the case that AI is not too old and that Willie persists to run him over 2m which is fact - both are backed up by numbers so they are easy cases to make.

Tone and a decent debate go hand in hand - 'I don't agree with Charlie' or something similar is preferable to 'I understand that Charlie does not want to hear it' isn't it?

Happy being challenged and having a good debate, but it's important to do so properly but also, to read what people have said!

My position on this doesn't really matter, nor do my bets - we all have positions and outcomes, but if you'd read my posts properly you'd have learnt the following:

a) my position on AI is predominantly any race (I want him to go Arkle so he can smash Jonbon - I want that clash and don't mind being wrong)
b) I've said many times AI would be capable of going 2m5f, no problem
c) I took 10/1 on AI for the Turners
d) I have MP @ 12/1 for the Turners so if AI went Turners I'd have the race by the absolute bollocks (with strong Arkle cover too)
e) If scenario d happened it would most likely push JDB into the BANC which would be just perfect