2023 Novice Chasers

[Dandrew99]

Those races are plenty early enough if he started in one of them, he could have a second chase start in mid february very easily if all goes well, jonbon had his second run about two weeks after his first, its not a big worry since they are likely to be no more strenuous than pieces of work, similar to the runs of dysart/el fab/app it.

the worry would be that cheltenham would probably be the first time that he'd be properly tested and his jumping put under a level of pressure, something that the other three will face at the drf and we'll see how they hold up, with sir g if the above scenario did play out you might be a bit more in the dark regarding his jumping.

The Grade 1 at the DRF looks the obvious stepping stone, but that's on the 5th which looks way too soon. Aside from that there's the Ten Up which is 3 miles, and not a lot else in terms of options for him in February. Looks like a bit of a stretch to find him a route to a Cheltenham novice chase to me...

[ComplyOrDie]

Just on El Fabiolo, I've just finished listening to Nick Lucks podcast and Anthony Bromley was on, and the way he was talking suggested it was his, Simon Munir and Isaac Souedes decision not to run him in the Supreme, despite the supposed official reason being he took a knock on the way over or something along them lines

Now, El Fabiolo missing the Supreme by design and going to Aintree the fresher horse would have me thinking he should have been beating Jonbon really. I mean it was my thought process anyway, but the reason spouted for missing the Supreme is now different to the one given.

I struggle to see El Fabiolo turning any form with Jonbon, even though he is a very good winner for me in the race itself. But I'm now thinking, if they've had that thought process once before then they could try it again and he not turn up at all, even more so IF he fails to win the Irish Arkle.

[Saxon Warrior]

Just looking at potential beginners/novice chases where Sir Gerhard could debut... fully expecting him to be over hurdles this year but thought it would be worth keeping an eye on a few potential entries before ruling him out. Think once it gets past January we can comfortably write him off in any novice chases for the festival.

I had originally had my eyes on the beginners chase over 2m1f at Fairyhouse on Saturday that Flame Bearer is in, or maybe the 2m3f novice chase on Sunday that Journey With Me is in, but those ships have sailed. I can only see 2 other potential starting points for him, being:

Gowran 26th Jan - 2m Beginners Chase (The race Coeur Sublime won last season, no Mullins runners)
Fairyhouse 28th Jan - 2m5f Beginners Chase (Won by Floueur last year, Mullins ran Egality Mans and Bacardys)

Saxon Warrior as our resident race planner, have I missed any? Do you think he could squeeze another one in before Cheltenham if he were to take up one of the two above?

Those two look a bit late to me, at a guess I'd say the Fairyhouse race is the most likely race if we are going to see Sir Gerhard over fences. If he were to debut there I think it's probably straight to Cheltenham after that which is far from ideal...

You are right, with those two races being the next Beginners Chases over less than 3M.

The main issue would be where does Sir Gerhard go for a second run, with the small Irish Racing calendar, and lack of “winners” races, or Novice Chases where a winner can run with a penalty.

So if he had won on his debut at the end of January, in either of the 2 Beginners Chases mentioned, and then didn’t turn out less than 2 weeks later at the DRF in a Grade 1 - where can he go instead?

The only race I can find that would fit the bill would be the

Grade 3 Flying Bolt Novice Chase over 2M on Saturday 4th March at Navan

Theres literally nothing in Ireland before then, that a Beginners Chase winner can run in after the DRF over less than 3M in a Novice Chase.

The only other race that is a Novice one in the programme, and would allow winners in it is the Grade B Novice Handicap Chase at Naas on 26th Feb.

The questions I have about that race is
a) would he qualify for it after one chase?
b) were he to be given a Chase rating in Ireland, would it breach any limits for the race?
The top weight last year was 140.

Outside of Novice Chases, I suppose he could go straight into open company for a second start.

Looking at those options after the DRF (and non-handicaps) you have only the

Grade 2 William Connolly Chase at Gowran Park over 2M4F on 18th February
Grade 3 Newlands Chase at Naas over 2M on 26th February

Thats your lot.

It makes some of the options in GB look positively overflowing, and the Irish trainers don’t really get heard complaining about it.

[Dandrew99]

Cheers Saxon Warrior! Amazing detail as always. The Flying Bolt was the other that I thought of but I don't see him running that close to Cheltenham, I don't think he's an El Barra...

The race at Gowran looks nice timing wise but it does seem a push to find a path to Cheltenham for him. Not sure if there's anything in the UK for him but not sure Willie would be overly keen on sending him on a boat twice so close together either.

I suspect the hope would have been to get him back for one of the beginners chases this weekend then onto DRF. Now they've come and gone, maybe that's it...

[Benjy23]

Just on El Fabiolo, I've just finished listening to Nick Lucks podcast and Anthony Bromley was on, and the way he was talking suggested it was his, Simon Munir and Isaac Souedes decision not to run him in the Supreme, despite the supposed official reason being he took a knock on the way over or something along them lines

Now, El Fabiolo missing the Supreme by design and going to Aintree the fresher horse would have me thinking he should have been beating Jonbon really. I mean it was my thought process anyway, but the reason spouted for missing the Supreme is now different to the one given.

I struggle to see El Fabiolo turning any form with Jonbon, even though he is a very good winner for me in the race itself. But I'm now thinking, if they've had that thought process once before then they could try it again and he not turn up at all, even more so IF he fails to win the Irish Arkle.

Didn't he take a knock on the way to the DRF, and then miss both. Assuming he'd been able to run and win at the DRF, I'm sure he'd have gone to Cheltenham after. And expect this year to be no different.

Not particularly helpful that but I think it's a case of waiting to see what happens at Leopardstown, or even what's declared.

[Saxon Warrior]

Cheers Saxon Warrior! Amazing detail as always. The Flying Bolt was the other that I thought of but I don't see him running that close to Cheltenham, I don't think he's an El Barra...

The race at Gowran looks nice timing wise but it does seem a push to find a path to Cheltenham for him. Not sure if there's anything in the UK for him but not sure Willie would be overly keen on sending him on a boat twice so close together either.

I suspect the hope would have been to get him back for one of the beginners chases this weekend then onto DRF. Now they've come and gone, maybe that's it...

I think the entries in the Champion Hurdle and Stayers Hurdle are likely building to a decision to stay over hurdles, if/when he runs this season.

The BFX markets on him for the Arkle and Turners have gone out in price in recent days.
Albeit to small values
30 quid between 50.0 and 100, and 20 quid over 100.0 for the Turners, has been matched.

There's 9 quid available now in the Arkle for prices between 200.0 and 300.0

I don't think he will turn up in either now, and some Layers are willing to offer big prices who seem to share the same thoughts.

None of this means he wont go over fences before March, but it shows its getting much more likely he won't.

The trainer has a lot of alternative options in his team for 2M-2M4F Novice chases too.

[Spectre]

Well said that man!

I'm going to put this age debate to bed once and for all because I'm tired repeatedly hearing that a 9 year old is less likely to win an Arkle.

28 horses (yes, 28, not 2 or 3) have won the QMCC aged 9 or older.

28 is not a small insignificant sample size, its 44% of all QMCC winners since 1959 being 9 years old or older, and that includes eleven 10 year olds, two 11 year olds and a 12 year old.

What about the Arkle? The first thing to look at is how many 9 year olds or older have actually tried to win an Arkle?

In the last 10 years, 87 horses have ran in the Arkle, 8 of which were 9 or older, which is only 9%.

6 of those had a starting SP of 25/1 and would fall in the 'no hope' category.

The notable flops are Rock On Ruby (5/1) who lost the race at the 3rd after having blundered very badly, and Overturn (7/2) who made a race ending mistake 3 out.

So in summary, a negligible number of 9+ year olds have tried to win an Arkle to say that they cant, and far far too many horses win the QMCC aged 9 or older to suggest that it makes it even slightly less likely.

Forgive me for stating the obvious, but a 9 year old running in an Arkle doesn't know its a novice and when all is said and done, this comes down to which horse can run and jump fastest around Cheltenham over 2m.

Every time Appreciate It being 9 comes up as a negative I am quoting this post. You are welcome to do the same

I'll add to that Charlie, that in the last 7 years, 2 x 9 year olds and 2 x 10 year olds have won the Champion Chase. On that basis you'd think a 9 year old might have the capability of winning an Arkle!

[archie]

It's a stat and, like all stats, should not be read in isolation.

If I'd backed Appreciate It for the Arkle I would be more concerned that Barry Geraghty thinks he's headed for the Turners.

[darlojim]

It's a stat and, like all stats, should not be read in isolation.

If I'd backed Appreciate It for the Arkle I would be more concerned that Barry Geraghty thinks he's headed for the Turners.

Barry a willie mole like Archie? Or is he spending times at Closutton?

Seem to remember he was riding out there last season if I'm not mistaken?

[charlie]

I'll add to that Charlie, that in the last 7 years, 2 x 9 year olds and 2 x 10 year olds have won the Champion Chase. On that basis you'd think a 9 year old might have the capability of winning an Arkle!

A solid addition!!! The case strengthens as the plot thickens!

[Craigy14]

It won’t matter if Appreciate It does go Jonbon will hand his arse to him

Now we wait……

[Istabraq]

The BANC is giving me a migraine

Been waiting for City Chief to appear following his horror error on debut, he’s entered up in the 3m class 2 chase at Warwick on Saturday, a good showing and he could put himself in the picture.
I’ve taken the 50/1 just in case…

[Lobos]

It's a stat and, like all stats, should not be read in isolation.

If I'd backed Appreciate It for the Arkle I would be more concerned that Barry Geraghty thinks he's headed for the Turners.

That's good enough for me. Thanks Sir Barry.

[Cooldaddy]

As previously pointed out Appreciate It is likely Turners bound. I understand that Charlie does not want to hear it, but that is what logic would suggest. WM wants to WIN as many races as possible at Cheltenham. He will not send all his big guns at the Arkle, he has a proper favourite to beat. He knew this last year and had a decision to make on how he split them. As it was, he put DD up against CH & Jonbon and stepped up SirG to Bally. He knew that gave him the best chance.

As I suspect he new CH is a freak and therefore no point in burning 2 good horses chasing the win. SirG did him proud and won the Bally with something to spare.

Ask yourself if WM is splitting DD and AI who do you think would be best suited to 2 1/2 miles? I will give you a clue its not DD.

Of course there could be injuries or a poor performance that changes his mind, but I feel the 10's available on AI for the Turners is going to look very big in March.

[DenmanSacre]

As previously pointed out Appreciate It is likely Turners bound. I understand that Charlie does not want to hear it, but that is what logic would suggest. WM wants to WIN as many races as possible at Cheltenham. He will not send all his big guns at the Arkle, he has a proper favourite to beat. He knew this last year and had a decision to make on how he split them. As it was, he put DD up against CH & Jonbon and stepped up SirG to Bally. He knew that gave him the best chance.

As I suspect he new CH is a freak and therefore no point in burning 2 good horses chasing the win. SirG did him proud and won the Bally with something to spare.

Ask yourself if WM is splitting DD and AI who do you think would be best suited to 2 1/2 miles? I will give you a clue its not DD.

Of course there could be injuries or a poor performance that changes his mind, but I feel the 10's available on AI for the Turners is going to look very big in March.

What do you think happens when Appreciate It wins the Irish Arkle? Still going Turners or to the Arkle?